2011 Fantasy Baseball Sleeper: Aaron Hill

Has everyone forgotten the fact that this guy is one year removed from a 36 HR season? In some mock drafts, I’ve seen Hill taken outside of the top 10 2nd Baseman!

Hill’s overall slash line dropped in a big way to 205/271/394 even though his BB% (7.1) and K% (16.1) remained close to his career marks of BB% (6.7), K% (14.4)respectively. Last year Hill posted a .196 BABIP. His career BABIP before 2010 was .307! However this is not all due to bad luck as many have suggested. In 2010 Hill’s line drive rate was 10.6%, worst in all of baseball. His fly ball rate was 54.2%, 5th highest in baseball. If he can manage to level out his swing, his ratios should creep closer to his career marks of 18.5% LD/41.4% FB.

Since Vernon Wells has left town, Hill will be hitting out of the 5 spot in the Jays potent lineup with Rajai Davis and Yunel Escobar occupying the 1 & 2 spots.

When ranking Aaron Hill this year, think 2009 with power regression. Hill may finish the season as a top 5 2B. I will be drafting him!

2011 Projection: 281 AVG, 27 HR, 89 RBI, 79 R, 4 SB

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