2011 Fantasy Baseball Sleeper: Luke Scott

Why all the hate on Luke Scott?

All of his 2010 stats are in-line with his career numbers, he has improved every year with the Orioles, he finished the 2010 fantasy season with a 115 ranking and he is only 32 years old. 

Yet for some reason, he still holds an ADP of 341 and a Yahoo ranking of 209. 

Let’s take a look at what he has done with his time in Baltimore:

Year HR BB% ISO OPS wOBA BABIP LD% HR/FB
2008 23 9.9% .215 .807 .343 .280 17.1% 14%
2009 25 10.9% .229 .828 .355 .283 17.1% 16.7%
2010 27 11.4% .251 .902 .387 .304 18.8% 18.6%

 

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Every year he has improved while registering no more than 475 AB. Imagine what he would do with 550 AB in an upgraded lineup.

The spike in BABIP is actually in line with his career BABIP (.300) and can be justified by his increased LD percent.

Since Luke Scott is a left-handed hitter, he will be cemented in the five spot, splitting up Baltimore’s right-handed hitters.

The middle of the order should look like this:

  • Three: Derrek Lee (R)
  • Four: Vladimir Guerrero (R)
  • Five: Luke Scott (L)
  • Six: Mark Reynolds (R)
  • Seven: Adam Jones (R)

This is great company if you ask me. He should get plenty of RBI opportunities and score plenty of runs.

Luke Scott is a very easy player to manage fantasy-wise. When he is hot, throw him in your UTIL spot and enjoy the ride. When he’s cold, spot start him versus right-handers, at home, at night or on grass.

See chart below:

Split AB HR AVG OBP SLG OPS
RHP 347 20 .297 .385 .550 .935
Home 228 19 .338 .419 .671 1.091
Night 322 20 .295 .378 .550 .928
Grass 397 24 .292 .369 .547 .916

 

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Luke Scott has always been an undrafted “wait and see” waiver wire type guy. Things will change after this year.

2011 Projection: 520 AB, .277 AVG, 29 HR, 85 RBI, 79 R, 2 SB

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One response to “2011 Fantasy Baseball Sleeper: Luke Scott

  1. Pingback: 2011 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers: Gordon Beckham « 4TH and HOME: Fantasy Baseball and Football Advice

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