Last week we looked at Ryan Raburn (here).
This week we peer into the crystal ball that is forecasting to determine if LOGAN MORRISON is primed for greatness in 2011. If you’re not in a league that counts BB or OBP you might have missed a very nice two months from a guy that won’t turn 24 until late August. And unless you’re a rookie named Stanton, you get a little overlooked from folks outside of Miami.
What did Morrison do upon his arrival in the Bigs? Despite hitting only 2 HR in 244 AB, he was the #12 1B over the final 2 months of the season in 5×5 categories and if you include BB, he was the #9 1B with a line of .297-41-2-16-41-0. Of course that’s assuming he was 1B-eligible in your league. Morrison played zero games at 1B in 2010, so this year he’ll only be OF-eligible.
Last year, Morrison had a 14.3 BB% (Jason Heyward had a 14.6 BB%) which was excellent for a rookie and good for #3 in all of baseball last year on a per-game-basis for guys playing more than 50 games. In 1,890 PA in the minor leagues, Morrison accumulated a 12.6 BB%. I’d expect minimal regression, but would not be surprised if he maintained a BB% over 14%. His .369 wOBA in Florida and his high minors wOBA proves he knows how to create runs. His .351 BABIP last season was a bit high when looking at his career, so I would expect some regression there but not much.
Groundballs are part of Morrison’s game, much like Billy Butler’s who he most closely resembles right now as far as tendencies go. Morrison had GB/FB/LD %’s of 48.2/32.1/19.7 and Butler’s were 47.7/34.0/18.3 which were eerily similar to his career marks of 47.7/34.1/18.2. Some other 2010 similarities to Butler to help us gauge what Morrison could or continue to do:
AVG: Logan .283 / Billy .318, OBP: .390 / .388, SLG: .447 / .469, BB/K: 0.8 / 0.88, ISO: .164 / .151, BABIP: .351 / .341, wOBA: .369 / .372
Will Morrison ever develop power? Tough to tell. His HR/AB year after year have been all over the place starting with his first year in the minors at age 18: 1.2%, 5.3%, 2.7%, 2.8%, 2.3% and then 0.8% in the MLB.
Assuming he maxes out at even 3.0% in the majors, he’ll be lucky to hit 20HR in a season. Seems to me that a powerless Billy Butler might be the best forecast for 2011. Afterall, Morrison did hit 20 2B in 62 games for Florida, a rate superior to Butler. You’d hope those 2B start turning into HR at some point as he is reaching his power years.
I think the best is yet to come from Logan Morrison, but this year depending on your league size he just may not be draft-worthy. Without stealing bags, a 10HR OF is tough to slot in every day.
My 2011 Logan Morrison Projection: .295/85/10/75/80BB/0
I currently have him as my #48 OF and since he is going off the board as the #56 OF, there is some value there if you use my projection as his floor. You’d probably draft him not for his projected stats, but for the potential of more.
Our fourth 2011 Nomination coming up: Mike Aviles.