Fantasy MLB Spot Starting: 04.23.11

As I was watching Kyle Lohse completely dominate the Nationals it reaffirmed the idea behind this daily post – there are gems to be had every day off the waiver wire.  I was close to tabbing Lohse until I saw his horrific splits against the Nats, but if a guy is on, he can beat anyone.  Luckily our actual pick, Scott Baker turned in his own gem beating the O’s.

For games on Saturday April 23rd these selected pitchers might be had in your league (less than 50% owned in Yahoo! or ESPN) with percent owned Yahoo/ESPN, (team), and opponent:

Javier Vazquez 38% / 9% (FLA) vs. COL

Tim Stauffer 36% / 4% (SD) vs. PHL

Travis Wood 35% / 82% (CIN) @ StL

Kevin Correia 22% / 25% (PIT) vs. WAS

Daisuke Matsuzaka 7% / 4% (BOS) @ LAA

Joe Blanton 4% / 3% (PHL) @ SD

Freddy Garcia 4% / 1% (NYY) @ BAL

My Pick: Kevin Correia vs. Nationals

Alternate: Tim Stauffer vs. Phillies

Deep League Special: Joe Blanton @ Padres

No slam dunks at all for Saturday and I hemmed and hawed on these picks a bunch – not what you wanted to hear if you are neck and neck in a tight head to head match and need to pick up some pitching stats.  Correia is coming off a CG 4 hitter against the Reds and has good splits against the Nats, though he hasn’t faced them since 1 start in ’09.  He has an unsustainably low BABIP of .202 but I don’t see it correcting itself this week against the light hitting Nats.

I like Stauffer, the ground ball king against a Phillies team that is still not hitting that much.  He isn’t striking many guys out, but the Phils K a lot.  On the flip side of this match-up I like Blanton against the woeful Padres offense.  Blanton’s peripherals (xFIP of 3.30 vs. 7.27 ERA) indicate he’s pitching better than his regular stats show and a trip to Petco could be just what he needs to get on track.

Not gonna go to the well again on Dice-K, let’s see if he can do it in back to back games.  Wood is 2 1/2 times more owned in ESPN, his 2.73 FIP shows he’s been unlucky in the early going, but the way the Cards are hitting, I’m not taking chances that all these hits are gonna be caught.

Results from Thursday 04.21.11:

Scott Baker W, 7 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 9 K, 1 BB  Baker should be picked up in most leagues after his second straight good performance.

Jeremy Guthrie L, 7 IP, 7 H, 2 ER, 4 K, 0 BB  Well someone had to lose the game, but Guthrie deserved a better fate for his performance.

Brandon McCarthy L, 8 IP, 4 H, 1 ER (HR), 6 K, 1 BB… McCarthy was a real hard luck loser as he pitched very well but paid for one mistake pitch as his offense did nothing.  He bares monitoring in deep leagues going forward.

Season Results (my pick only):

41 IP, 4-2, 36 H, 17 ER, 36 K, 13 BB, 3.73 ERA, 1.20 WHIP

Original post on Spot Starting

One response to “Fantasy MLB Spot Starting: 04.23.11

  1. Pingback: Fantasy MLB Spot Starting: 04.24.11 « Fantasy Baseball and Football Advice for the Soul

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