Fantasy MLB Spot Starting: 04.27.11

The pickings were slim yesterday and yet another great start was made by a pitcher on absolutely no one’s radar as Phil Humber pitched a gem against the Yankees taking a no hitter into the 7th inning.  Humber is owned in 1% of Yahoo! leagues and a slim 0.1% of ESPN (basically his dad owns him).  You just never know when a great start will come out of nowhere, but we can look at the match ups and stats and continue to do our best.

For games on Wednesday April 27th these selected pitchers might be had in your league (less than 50% owned in Yahoo! or ESPN) with percent owned Yahoo/ESPN, (team), and opponent:

Derek Holland 34% / 23% (TEX) vs. TOR

Anibal Sanchez 33% / 40% (FLA) vs. LAD

Jeremy Guthrie 33% / 17% (BAL) vs. BOS

Josh Tomlin 26% / 27% (CLE) vs. KC

R.A. Dickey 20% / 5% (NYM) vs. WAS

Mark Buehrle 15% / 10% (CWS) @ NYY

Bartolo Colon 8% / 3% (NYY) vs. CWS

Sam LeCure 4% / 3% (CIN) @ MIL

My Pick: Anibal Sanchez vs. Dodgers

Alternate: Josh Tomlin vs. Royals

Deep League Special: Bartolo Colon vs. White Sox

Sanchez is far and away the choice as long as he is still available in your league (he’s not in mine even though I am in a shallow league).  In his last start, Sanchez almost no-hit the Rockies, settling for a 1 hit Shutout.  He is striking out over 9/9IP.  And a look at his peripherals shows he’s pitched even better all month than his basic stats show: 3.55 ERA vs. 3.21 FIP, 3.28 xFIP and an inflated .357 BABIP compared to his career .295.  At over 50% ground balls, he’s going to start getting even more easy outs.

Tomlin has very quietly had a solid month of April for the Indians as he is 4/4 in quality starts and is 3-0.  He’s also improved his control over his last 2 starts allowing only 1 walk in 13.1 IP to go with a modest 8 Ks.  He didn’t fair too well against the Royals last year but he was walking guys at an alarming rate.  If he has his control he should be able to hold the weak Royals lineup in check and pick up another W.

I like Colon again in deep leagues against a White Sox team that is struggling to score runs.  He exceeded expectations in his last outing, let’s see if he can build on it.

Holland is coming off two straight 5 ER performances and has terrible splits vs the Jays.  Guthrie has seen his stock drop like a rock and his April 1st gem in Tampa is now a distant memory.

Results from Monday 04.25.11:

Jon Garland: ND, 7 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 4 K, 1 BB… For the second straight day my pick pitched well enough for a win but was victimized by his bullpen.

Chris Narveson: L, 2.1 IP, 8H, 7 ER, 2 K, 1 BB, 1 HR… Narveson got absolutely hammered by the Reds to the tune of 3 doubles and a homer.  The walks were the concern going in, but the Reds were making good contact.  Might be time to put Narveson on the back burner next time around.

Season Results (my pick only):

60 IP, 5-2, 50 H, 23 ER, 49K, 17 BB, 3.45 ERA, 1.12 WHIP

Original post on Spot Starting

One response to “Fantasy MLB Spot Starting: 04.27.11

  1. Mike 26 April 2011 at 12:51

    Narveson was dealing with an illness. How would you know that? You get a pass on that one.

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