Not a great showing for Spot Starting last night, but as I’ve said before, sometimes the stats and research let you down and that’s why the game is played on the field and not on paper. Can’t promise we can salvage the week or win your head to head match up with one of these picks though as the pickings are quite slim. Some of our recent picks like Carl Pavano and Chris Narveson are not recommended this go ’round. Chris Young is coming off the DL with a dead arm and has a very poor match up today against Halladay and the Phillies who’s bats have awoken. But as you’ll read all is not lost as there are two good plays to be had.
See you again on Monday when Spot Starting returns with picks for Tuesday.
For games on Sunday May 1st these selected pitchers might be had in your league (less than 50% owned in Yahoo! or ESPN) with percent owned Yahoo/ESPN, (team), and opponent:
Carl Pavano 42% / 16% (MIN) @ KC
Chris Narveson 28% / 20% (MIL) @ HOU
Chris Young 23% / 11% (NYM) vs. PHL
Bud Norris 20% / 5% (HOU) vs. MIL
Jon Garland 10% / 7% (LAD) vs. SD
After this, it gets down right ugly, trust me folks. Doesn’t mean someone can’t pull a good start out of their you know what, but we don’t have a crystal ball, just good hard stats.
My Pick: Bud Norris vs. Brewers
Alternate: Jon Garland vs. Padres
Deep League Special: Garland
Norris is my choice from these slim pickings. He’s thrown 6 innings and given up 0 ER in 2 of his last 3 starts, the other he gave up 3 in 6. He has good splits against the Brewers for his short career, 2-0 3.09 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, .220 BAA in 4 starts. Walks are a slight concern but he has 9K/9 for his career at home.
Garland faces the team he played for last year which I always think is a good play. They tend to have a slight chip on their shoulder and know the hitters (though the same can be said of the hitters knowing him). Garland has had back to back good starts since the clunker he threw after coming off the DL. The K’s won’t really be there but I like Garland to pick up the W and go 7. Jon will do double duty and be our Deep League Sleeper since he is owned in under 10% of leagues.
Results from Friday 04.29.11:
Scott Baker (Pick from Thursday): ND, 6.1 IP, 8 H, 2 ER, 2K, 1 BB… Baker had a pedestrian outing as his mini hot streak peters out. The Royals did rally late to get him off the hook.
Daisuke Matsuzaka: ND, 4 IP, 3 H, 3 ER, 4K, 4 BB… Dice K left in the 5th with tightness in his elbow after 82 pitches. Blame me folks, because I picked him up for this start for my team and everyone on my team gets hurt.
Freddy Garcia: L, 5 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 6 K, 5 BB, 2 HR… Garcia was wild and made a few mistakes but did K 6 in 5 IP, but walks and HRs will kill and Garcia’s mini run is over.
Season Results (my pick only):
80.2 IP, 5-3, 79 H, 38 ER, 62 K, 24BB, 4.24 ERA, 1.28 WHIP
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