April 2011 “September Star” Review

It’s been nearly a month since our final post on Brian Matusz, so I’d like to review where we’re at as we enter May and give you my opinion on buying, selling or holding my “September Stars”.

Drew Stubbs
Unfortunately in the series infancy I did not project Drew Stubbs’ 2011 season. For what it’s worth, I had him down for the following heading into my draft based on the research in the Stubbs article:
 .255/90/25/75/30

Drew Stubbs through April:
 .266/21/5/13/10

Drew Stubbs extrapolated 2011:
.266/126/30/78/60

Research Concern: BABIP
Stubbs currently owns a .338 BABIP which is right in line with his career average, leading me to believe the average is fine.

Conclusion: I noted that Stubbs can be very streaky and frustrating, but we have yet to experience either just yet. Obviously a 2011 close to the extrapolation would easily be a top player heading into 2012 drafts.

Buy, Sell or Hold? HOLD

Ryan Raburn
My Projection/s:
Ceiling:
.290/80/25/80/5
Floor:
.270/65/20/65/2

Ryan Raburn through April:
.253/14/4/14/0

Ryan Raburn extrapolated 2011:
.253/84/24/84/0

Research Concern: Playing time
Has started 23 of 28 Tiger games in 2011. He should get to 500 ABs per my article.

Conclusion: His BABIP looks healthy and his line drive rate is up. My only concern is his K rate, but recently he is hitting a lot better as he’s also been receiving more playing time. The caveat!

Buy, Sell or Hold? BUY

***

Logan Morrison (Injured – apparently due back May 5th)
My Projection:
.295/85/10/75/80BB/0

Logan Morrison through April (15 games):
.327/8/4/11/10/1

Logan Morrison extrapolated 2011:
.327/88/44/121/110/11

Research Concern: HR/AB
I mentioned that if he maxes out at 3%, you’ll likely get a 20 HR player. Right now LoMo is at 7%.

Conclusion: Hard to tell what LoMo is going to do when he comes off the DL. It’s a shame since he was scorching hot before getting injured. Do NOT expect the extrapolated stats, but it appears if healthy Morrison is going to have a season superior to my projection. The steals are an added bonus!

Buy, Sell or Hold? BUY

***

Mike Aviles
My Projection:
.325/100/15/50/25

Mike Aviles through April:
 .250/10/5/21/6

Mike Aviles extrapolated 2011:
.250/60/30/126/36

Research Concern: GB/FB/LD & BABIP
Aviles currently has a .233 BABIP which is more than 100 points lower than where it should be. His LD rate is very low and his FB rate is very high.

Conclusion: Expect his BABIP to come up and his LD and FB rates to even out. If he does not return to the leadoff spot for good, don’t expect his runs to approach the 100 I projected. That means you put the difference into his RBI totals.

Buy, Sell or Hold? BUY

***

Daniel Hudson
My Projection:
14-10/3.75/1.15/185

Daniel Hudson through April:
2-4/5.30/1.37/37

Daniel Hudson extrapolated 2011:
10-20/5.30/1.37/185

Research Concern: FB% and LOB%
Hudson currently owns a FB% of 41, which is an improvement over his 45% from 2010 but still a little higher than I’d like to see. However, it is good to see him lowering it. His strand rate sits at 58.9% which is SUPER low, considering he was at 83.1% last season.

Conclusion: His strand rate will rise, which will do wonders for his ERA. Furthermore, his tERA currently stands at 3.29 which signals he is pitching much better than the results show. Don’t expect him to get many wins – maybe 14 was even a stretch on my part – but the Ks are legit.

Buy, Sell or Hold? STRONG BUY

***

Madison Bumgarner
My Projection:
13-10/3.25/1.20/155

Madison Bumgarner through April:
0-4/6.17/1.76/16

Madison Bumgarner extrapolated 2011:
0-24/6.17/1.76/96

Research Concern: BB and LD%
Well, MadBum pretty much didn’t read my article on him. Maybe he did before his last start, but he is certainly not limiting the walks and line drives. His BB/9 have jumped from 2.11 last year to 4.24 this year. His LD% has jumped from 16.9% to 24.1%.

Conclusion: If you look at his velocity, it has actually increased. Remember last year when he could not find his velocity in the minors? When he did he started his accent to the majors. His swing percentages are in line with last season’s and his FIP currently stands at 4.14. Not great, but if his last start is any indication, expect his ERA and WHIP to start correcting.

Buy, Sell or Hold? WEAK BUY (For what it’s worth, I just picked him up.)

***

Brian Matusz
My Projection:
14-10/4.00/1.25/160

Brian Matusz through April:
Has not pitched, but the Orioles hope to have him back by June 1st.

Brian Matusz extrapolated 2011:
N/A

Research Concern: WHIP, FB% and LOB%

Conclusion: N/A

Buy, Sell or Hold? N/A

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One response to “April 2011 “September Star” Review

  1. Pingback: 05.02.11 Box Score Breakdown: Fantasy MLB News and Notes « Fantasy Baseball and Football Advice for the Soul

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