Fantasy MLB Spot Starting: 05.10.11

Welcome to another week of Spot Starting.  Let me tell you, from experience – the difference between winning and losing your head to head match could be a Sunday Spot Start off the waiver wire.  Yesterday, if I had followed my own advice and picked up Fausto Carmona or better yet, Anibal Sanchez I would have avoided a painful loss.  I was protecting my  WHIP and hoping it would hold up instead of padding my Ks and going for another W.  It backfired and my opponent Chris beat me.  Sometimes you gotta gamble.  By the way, please read Chris’ weekly Minor League Recap, it’s always epic.

For games on Tuesday May 10th these selected pitchers might be had in your league (less than 50% owned in Yahoo! or ESPN) with percent owned Yahoo/ESPN, (team), and opponent:

Kyle Drabek 38% / 23% (TOR) vs. BOS

Kevin Correia 34% / 36% (PIT) vs LAD

Clayton Richard 24% / 3% (SD) @ MIL

Homer Bailey 13% / 5% (CIN) @ HOU

Freddy Garcia 11% / 9% (NYY) vs. KC

Mike Pelfrey 6% / 1% (NYM) @ COL

Jake Arrieta 5% / 5% (BAL) vs. SEA

Rick Porcello 5% / 3% (DET)@ MIN

My Pick: Homer Bailey @ Astros

Alternate: Freddy Garcia vs. Royals

Deep League Special: Rick Porcello @ Twins

Tough choices and no slam dunks today as we have to dig a little deeper on all these picks.  Drabek might be a sexy pickup on name recognition but he has been dreadful lately walking guys like it’s his job.  My pick is Homer Bailey in his 2nd start of the season.  I’m really surprised he’s not more owned just based on past hype and his good first outing against the Astros (W, 6 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 7K, 1 BB).  My concern is that he can duplicate the feet against the same team in less than a week and on the road – but he’s our best option and the Astros have struggled to score this week.

I like Garcia to bounce back against the Royals and he’s K’ing more than 1 per IP his last 3 starts.

Porcello has 4 straight starts or 2ER of fewer, all with at least 6 IP.  His FIP and xFIP are both a half run better than his ERA and his .346 BABIP says he’s been better than you might think.

Results from Saturday & Sunday 05.07.11:

Bud Norris – L, 7 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 9K, 2 BB

Fausto Carmona – ND, 7 IP, 8 H, 0 ER, 7K, 1 BB

Season Results (my pick only):

6-5, 121 IP, 112 H, 43 ER, 107 K, 36 BB, 3.20 ERA, 1.22 WHIP

Original post on Spot Starting


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