Fantasy MLB Spot Starting: 05.12.11

Welcome back to Spot Starting.  Small slate of games on Thursday as per usual, so we need to dig deep, let’s see what we can find out there.  Many are day games, so set your rosters early then enjoy some afternoon baseball at work, what could be better?

For games on Thursday May 12th these selected pitchers might be had in your league (less than 50% owned in Yahoo! or ESPN) with percent owned Yahoo/ESPN, (team), and opponent:

Jordan Zimmermann 48% / 49% (WAS) @ ATL

Jon Garland 10% / 6% (LAD) @ PIT

Ivan Nova 8% / 5% (NYY) vs. KC

Charlie Morton 6% / 4% (PIT) vs. LAD

Jason Vargas 3% / 0.3% (SEA) @ BAL

My Pick: Jon Garland @ Pirates

Alternate: Jordan Zimmermann @ Braves

Deep League Special: Ivan Nova vs. Royals

Slim pickins, but Garland is the pick for tomorrow, though I know how tempting it is to pick up Young Mr. Zimmermann if he’s available in your league.  Garland has pitched well against the Pirates for his career including a 6 IP 1 hit victory over them last year.  He’s not as good at PNC but hasn’t pitched there since ’09.  Walks are Garland’s weakness so be careful if your WHIP is on shaky ground.  Garland’s peripherals say he’s going to regress big time if he keeps giving up flyballs like he is, but PNC Park is 29th in HR factor this year so his luck should continue.

Zimmermann is a little streaky but is coming off 2 quality starts after 2 clunkers.  He has posted surprisingly good numbers against the Bravos for his young career 2-1, 2.65 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, .213 BAA.  Zim’s tERA of 2.64 shows he’s pitched much better than his 4.10 ERA and once he starts striking guys out like he is capable of he’ll be fully on track.

Nova is worth a flyer in deep or AL leagues because a W is always a likely outcome for the Yanks at home against the Royals.  He’s coming off his best start of the season, just don’t expect much in the way of Ks.

Results from 05.10.11:

Homer Bailey – W, 7 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 5 K, 0 BB… Can’t ask for too much more than this from a guy easily picked up off the waiver wire.  Bailey has been excellent in both his starts this year and will be finding his way onto lots of teams after this outing.  He’s already gone in mine.

Season Results (my pick only):

7-5, 128 IP, 117 H, 43 ER, 112 K, 36 BB, 3.02 ERA, 1.20 WHIP

Original post on Spot Starting

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