Fantasy MLB Spot Starting: 07.01.11

Welcome back to Spot Starting, can you believe it’s July – the baseball season is already half over!  It’s going so quickly.  Look out for my Casual Sabermetrician update on Starting Pitchers at the mid way point.  And now for spot starts to kick off your July 4th weekend…

For games on Saturday July 2nd these selected pitchers might be had in your league (less than 50% owned in Yahoo! or ESPN) with percent owned Yahoo/ESPN, (team), and opponent:

Bartolo Colon 41% / 29% (NYY) @ NYM

Kyle McClellan 32% / 17% (StL) @ TB

Jake Arrieta 27% / 14% (BAL) @ ATL

Carl Pavano 26% / 10% (MIN) vs. MIL

Derek Holland 25% / 12% (TEX) vs. FLA

Homer Bailey 21% / 11% (CIN) vs. CLE

Chris Narveson 15% / 10% (MIL) @ MIN

Carlos Villanueva 14% / 6% (TOR) @ PHL

Joe Saunders 3% / 2% (ARI) @ OAK

My Pick: Carlos Villanueva @ Phillies

Alternate: Homer Bailey vs. Indians

Deep League Special: Joe Saunders @ A’s

Phillies regulars are batting .194 against Villanueva with only 1 HR in 36 ABs, he owns a 1.26/0.84/.163 career line against the Phillies (all in relief).  The Phillies offense has struggled / underachieved all season and nothing tells me they’ll break out against Villanueva who is quietly putting together a nice little season.  His 3.15 ERA is fairly legit when compared to his 3.45 FIP, 3.94 xFIP and 3.48 tERA.  Bonus: he qualifies as a RP so you can squeeze in an extra start.

Colon is coming off the DL which I never like, monitor his start though.  I like Saunders as a deep deep sleeper against the A’s, 2-3% owned?  Ridiculous.

Results from Tuesday 6/28/11:

Matt Harrison @ Astros: L, 6 IP, 7 H, 5 ER, 2 K, 2 BB…ugh that’ll be the last time I trust Chris for a Spot Start!  Ugly start for Harrison, his worst since April 26, and only 2nd time this season allowing more than 4 ER so it could not have been predicted.

Season Results (my pick only):

45 GS, 21-8, 286.1 IP, 252 H, 88 ER, 214 K, 72 BB, 2.77 ERA, 1.13 WHIP

Original post on Spot Starting

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