Fantasy MLB Spot Starting: 07.05.11

Welcome to the last week of the first half of the season, hope you all had a fun and safe 4th.  Look out for my Casual Sabermetrician update on Starting Pitchers at the mid way point, should be out tomorrow.  I’ll also be guest co-hosting The 4th and Home Show tonight with Mike.  I’m sure we’ll talk about the outlook for the 2nd half of the season.

For games on Wednesday July 6th these selected pitchers might be had in your league (less than 50% owned in Yahoo! or ESPN) with percent owned Yahoo/ESPN, (team), and opponent:

Phil Hughes 40% /  28% (NYY) @ CLE

Edwin Jackson 37% / 15% (CWS) vs KC

Bronson Arroyo 34% / 37% (CIN) @ StL

Jonathon Niese 33% / 12% (NYM) @ LAD

Josh Collmenter 31% / 17% (ARI) @ MIL

Jason Vargas 22% / 24% (SEA) @ OAK

Charlie Morton 21% / 11% (PIT) vs. HOU

Jeremy Guthrie 17% / 6% (BAL) @ TEX

Wade Davis 15% / 27% (TB) @ MIN

Tom Gorzelanny 5% / 1% (WAS) vs. ChC

My Pick: Jonathon Niese @ Dodgers

Alternate: Jason Vargas @ A’s

Deep League Special: Tom Gorzelanny vs. Cubs

Hughes is the big name on the list as he makes his first start since April 14th.  It’s anyone’s guess how he will perform, so as is my custom, monitor this start before inserting him into your lineup.  As Killboy noted Vargas is a good pickup, only issue is he seems as likely to pitch a SHO as he is to give up 6 runs and he has bad career numbers against the A’s and got smacked by them earlier this year.

That leads me to pick Niese who has 14Ks in his last 11.2 IP.  His 3.38 xFIP tells you he’s been pitching even better than his 3.72 ERA would suggest.    7.44K/9 also not too shabby off the waiver wire.  He’s an extreme ground ball pitcher so the Mets infield must have pretty poor range since his BABIP is .313 and .320 for his career.

Don’t sleep on Gorzelanny – he’s given up 1 ER in his last 14 IP while putting up a 16:2 K/BB ratio.

Results from Tuesday 7/2/11:

Carlos Villanueva @ Phillies ND, 6.2 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 3 K, 4 BB…Villanueva did limit the Phillies to only 5 hits over 6.2 but he was a little wild issuing 4 free passes.  He left the game with the lead which was promptly blown by the bullpen.

Season Results (my pick only):

46 GS, 21-8, 293 IP, 257 H, 91 ER, 217 K, 76 BB, 2.80 ERA, 1.14 WHIP

Original post on Spot Starting

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