May 2011 “September Star” Review

Long overdue to get this May article out. I’ve let my two readers down (my parents). Lo siento! Get your recap from April (here).

It’s time to buy, sell or hold my “September Stars”.

Drew Stubbs
My Projection:
 .255/90/25/75/30

Drew Stubbs through May:
.258/39/7/23/16

Drew Stubbs extrapolated 2011:
.258/117/21/69/48

Research Concern: BABIP
Stubbs had a BABIP of .361 in May, which is a bit above his carer average. His batting average was right in line with April’s.

Conclusion: Stubbs HR/FB came back to earth in May, so right now he is on pace for a 20/40 season. Seems I was low on his SB potential

Buy, Sell or Hold? BUY

Ryan Raburn
My Projection/s:
Ceiling:
.290/80/25/80/5
Floor:
.270/65/20/65/2

Ryan Raburn through May:
.198/18/4/15/0

Ryan Raburn extrapolated 2011:
.198/54/12/45/0

Research Concern: Playing time
His early season slumping has begun and his playing time has dropped. If he doesn’t pick it up he will get nowhere close to 500 ABs this season.

Conclusion: His BABIP was super low in May and he was not driving the ball at all. His IFFB% was 22% in May, which will equal a lot of outs.

Buy, Sell or Hold? HOLD, but if you SELL I will not blame you.

***

Logan Morrison
My Projection:
.295/85/10/75/80BB/0

Logan Morrison through May:
.320/17/7/19/18/1

Logan Morrison extrapolated 2011:
.320/85/35/95/90/5

Research Concern: HR/AB
I mentioned that if he maxes out at 3%, you’ll likely get a 20 HR player. Right now LoMo is at 6%.

Conclusion: Morrison picked up where he left off in April, but his HR/AB did drop a bit. He is still on pace for 30+ HR, but I don’t think you should expect 23 HR going forward.

Buy, Sell or Hold? BUY. Still undervalued.

***

Mike Aviles
My Projection:
.325/100/15/50/25

Mike Aviles through May:
 .235/12/5/29/8

Mike Aviles extrapolated 2011:
.235/36/15/87/24

Research Concern: GB/FB/LD & BABIP
Aviles turned in a .270 BABIP in May, which is still very low for him. There is room for improvement. His LD rate came up, the FB rate dropped, but he popped a lot of balls up.

Conclusion: Two months in and his batting average leaves a lot to be desired. The average and runs are taking a beating and he needs a hot couple of months to reach my expectations. Other than that, everything else is in line.

Buy, Sell or Hold? HOLD

***

Daniel Hudson
My Projection:
14-10/3.75/1.15/185

Daniel Hudson through May:
6-5/4.13/1.29/64

Daniel Hudson extrapolated 2011:
18-15/4.13/1.29/192

Research Concern: FB% and LOB%
Hudson continued to drop his FB% which was down to 38% in May which is fantastic.  His strand rate jumped all the way up 74% in May, which again was an improvement.

Conclusion: I hope you took my advice and tried to acquire him. His projected ERA might’ve been low and I think his WHIP will continue to drop. He is a stud-in-the-making.

Buy, Sell or Hold? STRONG BUY. Your window is closing.

***

Madison Bumgarner
My Projection:
13-10/3.25/1.20/155

Madison Bumgarner through May:
2-6/3.66/1.34/46

Madison Bumgarner extrapolated 2011:
6-18/3.66/1.34/138

Research Concern: BB and LD%
Thank you for reading, MadBum. You began to limit your walks. He lowered his BB/9 down to 2.43 in May which was a huge improvement from April. Remember, he was at 2.11 last year. His LD% decreased to 18.2% in May, which is still a little high, but much lower than April.

Conclusion: Bumgarner seems to be on the right track now. Right after I picked him up he started rattling off some nice starts.

Buy, Sell or Hold? STRONG BUY

***

Brian Matusz
My Projection:
14-10/4.00/1.25/160

Brian Matusz through May:
Has not pitched, but the Orioles hope to have him back by June 1st.

Brian Matusz extrapolated 2011:
N/A

Research Concern: WHIP, FB% and LOB%

Conclusion: N/A

Buy, Sell or Hold? N/A

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