June 2011 “September Star” Review

Ok, I am getting back on track here. Some interesting developments with our “Stars”. Listen, we can’t get them all right, but the approach will shine light on some potential bargains and studs as you head into your draft each year. I’ve laid the foundation and showed you what to look for so next year you can ignore my articles. Kidding! Keep coming back, Mom and Dad!

It’s time to buy, sell or hold my “September Stars”.

Drew Stubbs
My Projection:
 .255/90/25/75/30

Drew Stubbs through June:
.255/55/11/32/23

Drew Stubbs extrapolated 2011:
.255/110/22/64/46

Research Concern: BABIP
Again his BABIP rose, this time to .375. It does concern me, because a July, August or September swoon could really devastate his batting average and counting stats.

Conclusion: This guy’s numbers are all over the place, but somehow his counting stats are very close to what was predicted back in the pre-season. His K% jumped to 40.6%. Yuck! His HR/FB jumped to 18.2%, which shows us he was all or nothing (which I’ve said many times) when looked at with his K%. It was nice to see him get his LD% back up, but the 13.6 IFFB% shows that he can get his average up if he starts driving the ball more and being more selective at what pitches to take yard.

Buy, Sell or Hold? HOLD

Ryan Raburn
My Projection/s:
Ceiling:
.290/80/25/80/5
Floor:
.270/65/20/65/2

Ryan Raburn through June:
.207/25/7/28/1

Ryan Raburn extrapolated 2011:
.207/50/14/56/2

Research Concern: Playing time
Well, he’s not playing every day, but enough that he should be producing

Conclusion: His BABIP was super low in May and he was not driving the ball at all. His IFFB% was 22% in May, which will equal a lot of outs.

Buy, Sell or Hold? SELL, but I’m sure you did long ago.

***

Logan Morrison
My Projection:
.295/85/10/75/80BB/0

Logan Morrison through June:
.266/26/10/30/26/1

Logan Morrison extrapolated 2011:
.266/65/25/75/65/2

Research Concern: HR/AB
I mentioned that if he maxes out at 3%, you’ll likely get a 20 HR player. By month he has gone: 6/5/3. He has already reached my projected 10, but I think 20 is attainable.

Conclusion: A very rough June for LoMo as he batted just .200. His BB% dropped significantly as did his BABIP. I can’t help but think that DL-stint messed up his perfect April-timing. He did hit a good amount of IFFBs in June, so as he gets more playing time expect his average to rise with his counting stats.

Buy, Sell or Hold? STRONG BUY

***

Mike Aviles
My Projection:
.325/100/15/50/25

Mike Aviles through June:
 .213/12/5/30/10

Mike Aviles extrapolated 2011:
N/A

Research Concern: GB/FB/LD & BABIP
It doesn’t matter. He was demoted for the youth movement.

Conclusion: D@mn, Aviles!

Buy, Sell or Hold? SELL

***

Daniel Hudson
My Projection:
14-10/3.75/1.15/185

Daniel Hudson through June:
9-5/3.49/1.17/92

Daniel Hudson extrapolated 2011:
18-10/3.49/1.17/184

Research Concern: FB% and LOB%
Hudson’s FB% dropped again in June, this time to 36.8 and his strand rate held steady at 72.8%.

Conclusion: He is en route to putting up numbers I thought he was capable of. The win total and ERA can adjust up or down but the WHIP and K are spot on.

Buy, Sell or Hold? HOLD

***

Madison Bumgarner
My Projection:
13-10/3.25/1.20/155

Madison Bumgarner through June:
4-9/3.84/1.36/77

Madison Bumgarner extrapolated 2011:
8-18/3.84/1.36/144

Research Concern: BB and LD%
MadBum had his best K/BB month in that it was 31:3. His ERA and WHIP jumped quite a bit in the month of June, so was it because of a higher LD%?Sure was. His LD rate jumped back up over 24 to 26.1. Ouch. Check out his BABIP at .423. Yeah, a bit high.

Conclusion: Bumgarner was on the right track and then ran into some issues vs. the Twins, which really skewed his ratios. Let’s chalk it up to one horrible start and call him a….

Buy, Sell or Hold? STRONG BUY, once again.

***

Brian Matusz
My Projection:
14-10/4.00/1.25/160

Brian Matusz through June:
1-4/8.77/1.99/18

Brian Matusz extrapolated 2011:
N/A

Research Concern: WHIP, FB% and LOB%

Conclusion: Like Aviles, demoted to the minors. What a shame. Rights the ship and he’ll be back. Remember, this guy had TONS of upside coming into 2010 AND 2011.

Buy, Sell or Hold? MONITOR with both eyes.

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