July 2011 “September Star” Review

Don’t want to get ahead of ourselves, but this whole September stuff? We could be onto something here…

It’s time to buy, sell or hold (or monitor) my “September Stars”.

Drew Stubbs
My Projection:
 .255/90/25/75/30

Drew Stubbs through July:
.257/72/13/36/26

Drew Stubbs extrapolated 2011:
.257/108/20/54/39

Research Concern: BABIP
The BABIP dropped in July (.354), but not as much as you might think considering his less-than-stellar counting stat output.

Conclusion: July was a month where he didn’t perform and he pretty much followed his team down that path. As the Reds go, so does Drew. His numbers were decent. He had his highest BB rate and his lowest K rate of the season. His ISO (.096) was pretty low, which could be attributed to his higher than normal GB rate (53%). All in all, guys not getting on base in front of him hurt.

Buy, Sell or Hold? HOLD

Ryan Raburn
My Projection/s:
Ceiling:
.290/80/25/80/5
Floor:
.270/65/20/65/2

Ryan Raburn through July:
.219/33/9/32/1

Ryan Raburn extrapolated 2011:
.219/50/14/48/2

Research Concern: Playing time
Not enough. When you slump, you sit. He wasn’t playing that well anyway.

Conclusion: He could still salvage his season as most of his sabers trending in the right direction in July despite the lack of playing time.

Buy, Sell or Hold? SELL

***

Logan Morrison
My Projection:
.295/85/10/75/80BB/0

Logan Morrison through July:
.249/36/16/56/34/1

Logan Morrison extrapolated 2011:
.249/54/24/84/51/2

Research Concern: HR/AB
I mentioned that if he maxes out at 3%, you’ll likely get a 20 HR player. By month he has gone: 6/5/3/6. He is now pushing for 25.

Conclusion: His average and BB rate are atrocious. Also, his BABIP has barely been above .200 since May. Not good. Driving the ball (and taking a walk) would do him some good.

Buy, Sell or Hold? BUY

***

Mike Aviles
My Projection:
.325/100/15/50/25

Mike Aviles through July:
 .221/14/5/31/10

Mike Aviles extrapolated 2011:
.221/21/8/47/15

Research Concern: GB/FB/LD & BABIP
He was demoted, called up and then traded. Not in a good situation in Boston.

Conclusion: Fail.

Buy, Sell or Hold? SELL

***

Daniel Hudson
My Projection:
14-10/3.75/1.15/185

Daniel Hudson through July:
10-7/3.81/1.24/115

Daniel Hudson extrapolated 2011:
15-11/3.81/1.24/173

Research Concern: FB% and LOB%
Hudson’s FB% dropped once again (29.4) as did his LOB% (66.2).

Conclusion: He gave up too many hits in July getting bombed in three of his five starts. I expect him to rebound and end the season very similar to my projection.

Buy, Sell or Hold? BUY

***

Madison Bumgarner
My Projection:
13-10/3.25/1.20/155

Madison Bumgarner through July:
6-10/3.80/1.30/115

Madison Bumgarner extrapolated 2011:
9-15/3.80/1.30/173

Research Concern: BB and LD%
June was good, but July was better in that MadBum had a 38:5 K/BB rate. LD rate dropped to normalcy and voila!

Conclusion: As I’ve talked about in my BSBs, Bumgarner is quickly turning into a bonafide stud and I look forward to him becoming a #1 in 2012.

Buy, Sell or Hold? BUY

***

Brian Matusz
My Projection:
14-10/4.00/1.25/160

Brian Matusz through June:
1-4/8.77/1.99/18

Brian Matusz extrapolated 2011:
N/A

Research Concern: WHIP, FB% and LOB%

Conclusion: Still in the minors.

Buy, Sell or Hold? MONITOR

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