Monthly Archives: September 2011

Killin’ the Odds & Player Props (Results)

Back on April 1, I picked out some prop bets from Bodog and posted my top 10. The players must start the season on the active roster. Hitters must play in 130 games for action, starting pitchers must start 25 games and relievers cannot spend any time on the DL. If any of these situations occur, the wager is a push.

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Running Back Rundown

I’m going to mix things up a little bit this week and start off by discussing some of the top running backs that have been off to a slow start this season,  and there are quite a few of them.  Chris Johnson, Rashard Mendenhall, Frank Gore, and Shonn Greene were all drafted as #1 running backs and have been lackluster to say the least.

Chris Johnson, Tenseness Titans: CJ2K has to be the biggest bust of the fantasy season so far. This first round pick has a mere 98 rushing yards and 91 receiving yards, with zero touchdowns. The Titans having been winning games (2-1) and they’ve given Johnson plenty of carries (46), so what’s going on? For starters, Johnson was a hold out for almost the entire preseason, and had no time to mesh with the Titan’s new offensive coordinator.  The Titans eased him in week 1, with only 9 carries, and then he had a tough match up against Baltimore in week 2.  A breakout was expected last week against Denver, but that never materialized. This week the Titans have a soft match up against the Browns, and Johnson is claiming that he’s finally back in shape.  With Kenny Britt out for the season, the Titans are going to be relying even more heavily on Johnson. This week really should be a breakout for Johnson.  If it isn’t, it’s time to start worrying.
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NFL Week 3 Recap

49ers v. Bengals: Yawn. Unless you owned Vernon Davis (8 for 114), you got nothing out of this game. Seriously. No TD passes, and only 1 rushing TD, courtesy of Kendall Hunter, Frank Gore’s backup.  Too early to label Frankie a bust?

Panthers v. Jaguars: In the battle of the 90s-expansion-feral-cat-mascot teams, there were not very many fantasy winners. MJD had his typical day (167 total yards), Mike Thomas caught a TD (4 for 55), and Greg Olsen was useful (7 for 57, TD), but no one else was worthy of a fantasy start; Cam Newton came back down to earth with only 158 yards passing.

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WR Waiver Gems – Week 3

I was 2 for 4 in my waiver picks last week; Henderson was the prime deep threat for Brees, and Eric Decker filled in nicely for Brandon Lloyd on his way to a monster fantasy day. Let’s see what low-ownership WRs in Yahoo leagues might pan out this week:

David Nelson, Buffalo Bills, 45% (NE): 

Nelson was a PPR machine last week with his 10 for 83, TD performance against the Raiders. He really came out of nowhere too. This week, he gets another team that can’t defend the pass. Despite being 2-0, the Pats have given up the 2nd most passing yards in the league: 762. Who has given up the most? The Packers, which is pretty shocking news as well. Although I don’t see this Buffalo renaissance lasting much longer, the offense should be able to put up some points against the bendy Patriots. As such, Nelson should again have a solid week as Fitzpatrick’s second option: 8 catches, 65 yards, and a TD.

Early Doucet, Arizona Cardinals, 29% (@ SEA): 

Doucet was hot in week 1, but not in week 2. Granted, take away his 70 yard TD against the Panthers and he has 55 yards in two games, but hey, they all count. The ‘hawks have been stout defensively through the first two, but I cannot see that lasting, especially given their woeful offense keeping them on the field for long stretches of time. Since ‘Zona will lean even more on Kolb’s arm this week, with Beanie Wells looking iffy, L-Fitzy will get his yards/TDs, and Doucet will get the scraps: 50 and a touch this week in a high scoring affair (The Cards D will make Seattle look somewhat respectable).

Nate Washington, Tennessee Titans, 22% (DEN):

Nate and the Titans shocked everyone with their upset of the Ravens last week. Washington had an impressive 7 catches for 99 yards as the compliment to Kenny Britt. He should continue being a useful WR 2/3 this week against Denver, what with Champ Bailey most likely out, and Britt surely seeing double teams on a regular basis. Give him even more consideration in PPR leagues. 6 catches, 75 yards, and an outside shot at a TD.

Deep League Special:

Titus Young, Detroit Lions, 4% (@ MIN):

My deep league friends, look to Titus for assistance as a WR3/flex play against the woeful Vikings pass defense: Minny has given up over 280 yards passing in two games. While that is a small sample size, their stout D is a thing of the past. With Matt Stafford and the high-flying Lions attack (yea, it still sounds weird) coming to town, there should be enough to go around. Since CJ, Burleson, Best, and Scheffler (and Pettigrew, if healthy) will be the focal points for the Vikings, Mr. Young could again sneak his way to an 80 yard receiving week (he was 5 for 89 last week), not too shabby for someone nearly universally unowned.

Killin’ the Odds & the NFL Season

Welcome to Killin’ the Odds & the NFL Season! Below you will see my picks to win for the week. I will post either the “Money Line” or the “Point Spread”. The money line is always a “straight up” bet which means your team will never need to win or lose by a specific amount of points. The money line odds represent what amount has to be wagered or what can be won. For example, if there is a minus sign (-) next to an amount, you have to wager that amount to win 100. If there is a plus sign (+) next to an amount, you will receive that amount for every 100 wagered. A “Point Spread” wager is made on either the favorite (-) or underdog (+) team. A wager on the favored team means that this team must not only win but also win by the specified point spread. A wager on the underdog means that this team may either win or lose, as long as they do no lose by more than the specified point spread. If the game ends on the teams meeting the spread exactly, the wager is a push. Example: If the Cowboys are favored by -3 and win the game by exactly 3 points, the wager is a push.

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Running Back Rundown

Wow!  It’s only week two and we’ve already got a bunch of banged up running backs and some big time position battles.  Lets cut to the chase…

Backfields to Watch

Miami Dolphins:  Remember when Daniel Thomas sucked this preseason, and Reggie Bush had backfield all to himself?  Well, after rushing for 107 yards in week two, Thomas is now looking like the new #1 back in Miami. That didn’t take long.  This is unfortunate for people (like me) who drafted Bush hoping he would be a starter for the first half of the season. This is going to be committee situation going forward, with Thomas being the more valuable of the two backs.  Thomas is an RB2 against Cleveland this week, and Bush is flex option.

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NFL Week 2 Recap

Raiders v. Bills: Buffalo is 2-0! Break ’em up! This game featured tons of scoring, all from the offenses. Ryan Fitzpatrick was, again, stellar against a weak defense (264, 3 TD). Steve Johnson again didn’t disappoint (8 for 96, TD); so far, no fluke for Stevie. Some guy named David Nelson was catching everything thrown near him  (10 for 83, TD, game winner), and Scott Chandler salvaged his fantasy day with a late TD grab; the legend grows. For Oakland, Jason Campbell had a nice game (323, 2 TD), with Denarius Moore (5 for 146, TD) having a monster breakout party. Darren McFadden was the other prime target (7 for 71, TD). On the ground, Fred Jackson again went over 100 yards (117, 2 TDs), and DMC was solid if unspectacular (72, TD), though you won’t complain about the 143 combined yards and 2 touches.

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WR waiver gems

Its early in the season, but here’s a list of wide outs owned in less than 70% of Yahoo leagues who I think could have very useful week 2 performances (standard scoring, non-PPR).

Johnny Knox, CHI, 67% (@ NO): Knox had 3 catches for 60 yards last week in a non-starting role, and Roy Williams looks like a game time decision. He has more talent at this point than Williams, but Mike Martz had a crush on Royboy all pre-season, hence the starter designation week 1. Knox should see plenty of targets in an expected shootout on the Superdome turf, and I think he’s in line for 80 yards and a score.

Devery Henderson, NO, 62% (@ CHI): On the other side, Henderson should be a co-primary option with Robert Meachem week 2, unless Lance Moore actually plays. I doubt the Saints will rush him back given the other weapons on offense. Henderson had a great week 1 (100 yards and a TD) and has teased fantasy players before, but I think he’s good for at least one more week of WR 1-2 level value. Pencil him in for 90 yards receiving.

Antonio Brown, PIT, 21% (SEA): Pittsburgh will be out for vengeance this week after last week’s drubbing at the hands of the Ravens, and I think they will come out throwing against Seattle’s woeful D to try to put the game away early, then let their defense and running game close it out. Brown could be a beneficiary, as Seattle will probably have most of their attention on Mike Wallace. Only two catches last week for 14 yards, but he is still in contention for the WR 2 slot. Brown could be the forgotten man by the ‘hawks, and I wouldn’t be shocked if he picked up 60 yards and a TD.

Really deep league special:

Eric Decker, DEN, 7% (CIN): With Brandon Lloyd iffy for this tilt due to a groin injury, Decker could have his breakout game against the lamecats. If Lloyd is out, he should be Kyle Orton’s top target – forget about Eddie Royal, and Knowshon Moreno is likely out. Decker is a big (6’3″, 218) target for Orton, and I wouldn’t be shocked to see him stick as a decent WR 3 even if Lloyd gets healthy. 70 and a TD this week is in the cards.

 

Killin’ the Odds & the MLB Season

Welcome back to Killin’ the Odds & the Regular Season! In the “Today’s Games” section, you will see my picks to win for the day. I will post either the “Money Line” or the “Run Line”. The money line is always a “straight up” bet which means your team will never need to win or lose by a specific amount of runs. The money line odds represent what amount has to be wagered or what can be won. For example, if there is a minus sign (-) next to an amount, you have to wager that amount to win 100. If there is a plus sign (+) next to an amount, you will receive that amount for every 100 wagered. When you see a “Run Line”, that means a spread is involved. In Baseball, the spread is always 1.5 runs but you can find alternate run lines on some websites. When I post a run line of -1.5, that means our team must win by two runs. When you see a run line of +1.5, that means our team can lose by one run and still win the wager. Listen to our show from April 5th, 2011 for more explanation and tips.

Killin’ the Odds & the NFL Season

Welcome to Killin’ the Odds & the NFL Season! Below you will see my picks to win for the week. I will post either the “Money Line” or the “Point Spread”. The money line is always a “straight up” bet which means your team will never need to win or lose by a specific amount of points. The money line odds represent what amount has to be wagered or what can be won. For example, if there is a minus sign (-) next to an amount, you have to wager that amount to win 100. If there is a plus sign (+) next to an amount, you will receive that amount for every 100 wagered. A “Point Spread” wager is made on either the favorite (-) or underdog (+) team. A wager on the favored team means that this team must not only win but also win by the specified point spread. A wager on the underdog means that this team may either win or lose, as long as they do no lose by more than the specified point spread. If the game ends on the teams meeting the spread exactly, the wager is a push. Example: If the Cowboys are favored by -3 and win the game by exactly 3 points, the wager is a push.

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