Monthly Archives: October 2011

Killin’ the Odds & the NFL Season

Welcome to Killin’ the Odds & the NFL Season! Below you will see my picks to win for the week. I will post either the “Money Line” or the “Point Spread”. The money line is always a “straight up” bet which means your team will never need to win or lose by a specific amount of points. The money line odds represent what amount has to be wagered or what can be won. For example, if there is a minus sign (-) next to an amount, you have to wager that amount to win 100. If there is a plus sign (+) next to an amount, you will receive that amount for every 100 wagered. A “Point Spread” wager is made on either the favorite (-) or underdog (+) team. A wager on the favored team means that this team must not only win but also win by the specified point spread. A wager on the underdog means that this team may either win or lose, as long as they do no lose by more than the specified point spread. If the game ends on the teams meeting the spread exactly, the wager is a push. Example: If the Cowboys are favored by -3 and win the game by exactly 3 points, the wager is a push.

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Running Back Rundown

We have a sporadic internet connection here at 4th & Home headquarters today, so this week’s article is bit short, but there’s still enough info to get you through the first bye week.

Backfields to Watch

New England Patriots: Stevan Ridley carried the load for the Patriots again in week 4, with 10 carries for 107 yards and a TD. Benjarvus Green-Ellis also had a productive day with 16 rushes for 75 yards and a TD.  Ridley is by far the superior rusher in this backfield, but you can still expect BJE to at least get an equal number of carries for the time being.  Ridley has made Danny Woodhead essentially worthless from a fantasy perspective.  BJE is a risky RB2 against the Jets this week, and Ridley is a flex play.  Woodhead will likely be out with an ankle
injury, but isn’t worth starting anyway.

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NFL Week 4 Recap

Cowboys v. Lions: Wait, Matt Stafford throws for under 300 yards? Blasphemy! He still did alright (240, 2 TDs), with both touchdown passes coming late during Detroit’s comeback. Both – shock of all shocks – were hauled in by Calvin Johnson who caught 8 passes for 96 yards. CJ now has 8 of those on the year, amazing. No other Lion made any real impact. On Dallas’ side, Tony Romo was again gritty and gutty, but added great fantasy stats this time (331, 3 TDs). Laurent Robinson – getting a start in place of Miles Austin – led the ‘Boys in receiving (7 for 116), while Jason Witten (8 for 96, TD), and Dez Bryant (3 for 37, 2 TDs) made their fantasy owners happy.

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WR Waiver Gems – Week 4

I was 2 for 4 last week, hitting on David Nelson (6 for 84) and Nate Washington (8 for 92, TD), and missing on Early Doucet (5 for 50), and Titus Young (4 for 51), though the two misses still provided good PPR totals. Washington obviously should benefit from Kenny Britt being out for year, and has an outside shot at a thousand yard season. Ok, enough banter, on to this week’s lightly owned WRs who could provide a boost to your fantasy score:

Denarius Moore, Oakland Raiders, 68% (NE): Yea, Moore is pretty well known by now, after his breakout game against Buffalo in week 2, but still, he is available in almost a third of all yahoo leagues, and is facing the sieve-like Patriot’s D (377 yards given up per game, most in the league). Given that NE will also be justifiably focused on trying to contain DMC, and Oakland should be involved in a shootout, Moore could be a WR1 in WR3 clothing this week, even if Jacoby Ford plays. A hundred yards and a touch? Definitely doable.

Victor Cruz, New York Giants, 32% (@ARIZ): The second option in the Giant’s passing attack last week had a career game, with the Eagles too focused on Hakeem Nicks and the running game, and Mario Manningham out. This week, Mario is probably back, but I still would consider Cruz a solid WR2-3 option. Even when healthy, Manningham can look lost at times, and it is clear that Eli and Cruz developed some chemistry against Philly. Arizona’s D doesn’t scare anyone and has given up 275 passing yards/game thus far. Victor should be good for 85-100 of those.

Jabbar Gaffney, Washington Redskins, 19% (@STL): Gaffney has been a consistent possession target for Rex Grossman, tallying at least 50 yards a game the first three weeks, with 5 catches each of the past two weeks. Although he doesn’t have a TD, that could change this week against St. Lou, who have given up 7 passing TDs thus far, to go with 252 yards/game. Gaffney is a sneaky deeper league play who could net WR2-3 numbers of 50-60 yards and a touch.

Deep League Special:

Brandon Gibson, St. Louis Rams, 7% (WAS): Gibson had a nice week against Baltimore in week 3, with 55 yards and a TD. Given the Rams’ fluctuating WR situation, as well as the likelihood of them playing from behind, he could be a sleeper for about 80 yards against Washington; a TD might not be in the cards though, as the ‘Skins have only allowed 2 passing TDs thus far.

Killin’ the Odds & the NFL Season

Welcome to Killin’ the Odds & the NFL Season! Below you will see my picks to win for the week. I will post either the “Money Line” or the “Point Spread”. The money line is always a “straight up” bet which means your team will never need to win or lose by a specific amount of points. The money line odds represent what amount has to be wagered or what can be won. For example, if there is a minus sign (-) next to an amount, you have to wager that amount to win 100. If there is a plus sign (+) next to an amount, you will receive that amount for every 100 wagered. A “Point Spread” wager is made on either the favorite (-) or underdog (+) team. A wager on the favored team means that this team must not only win but also win by the specified point spread. A wager on the underdog means that this team may either win or lose, as long as they do no lose by more than the specified point spread. If the game ends on the teams meeting the spread exactly, the wager is a push. Example: If the Cowboys are favored by -3 and win the game by exactly 3 points, the wager is a push.

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