Tag Archives: alex rodriguez

2011 Fantasy Baseball Bust: Rickie Weeks

 

Rickie Weeks dominated in 2010.

His final stats of 112/29/83/11 and triple slash line of .269/.366/.464 were impressive to say the least.

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2011 Fantasy Baseball Rankings: THIRD BASE

Well, I’ve been called a lot of things but our 3B Fantasy Baseball Rankings have now earned me the taunting of being a Homer. Yes, I may be the only one ranking David Wright ahead of Evan Longoria this year, but my own projection system has them so close with a minimal edge given to Wright for 2011. I think their numbers will be similar with Wright getting a slight advantage in SBs. In a keeper, yes, Longoria is the clear #1. Let’s see where everyone else is ranked…

Longoria celebrates his 4th and Home Composite Rankings


RANK PLAYER Brian Mike Killboy Jesse Eric COMP
1 Evan Longoria – TB 1 2 1 1 1 1.2
2 David Wright – NYM 2 1 3 2 2 2
3 Alex Rodriguez – NYY 4 5 2 3 3 3.4
4 Ryan Zimmerman – WAS 3 4 4 4 4 3.8
5 Kevin Youkilis – BOS 5 3 6 5 5 4.8
6 Jose Bautista – TOR 6 6 5 7 6 6
7 Adrian Beltre – TEX 7 9 7 6 7 7.2
8 Michael Young – TEX 9 12 8 10 8 9.4
9 Aramis Ramirez – CHC 8 13 9 8 12 10
10 Martin Prado – ATL 10 11 12 11 9 10.6
11 Pablo Sandoval – SF 14 8 13 9 11 11
12 Mark Reynolds – BAL 11 7 11 13 13 11
13 Casey McGehee – MIL 12 10 10 14 10 11.2
14 Pedro Alvarez – PIT 13 14 14 15 14 14
15 Scott Rolen – CIN 16 20 18 12 15 16.2
16 Ian Stewart – COL 15 15 16 16 16.6
17 Chris Johnson – HOU 17 18 17 17 18
18 Chone Figgins – SEA 15 16 19 18.4
19 Michael Cuddyer – MIN 16 19 18 19
20 Chase Headley – SD 19 17 19.8

 

PABLO SANDOVAL

Kung Fu Panda is coming off a disappointing season and it seems to given him motivation to get his act in gear this winter.  He’s lost 38 pounds and dropped his body fat percentage by over 10%.  The 5′-11″ third baseman is down to a svelte 240lbs.  He’s also spent some time working on his hitting with Barry Bonds.  Expect his numbers to be closer to his 2009 debut than to 2010’s let down. .305/70/20/80/5

CASEY McGEHEE

McGehee silenced his critics by following up his 2009 career year with a very solid 2010 campaign. McGehee finished 9th among fantasy 3B in 2010 while improving his strike out rate. Expect more of the same from McGehee in 2011 unless Ken Macha moves him to 2nd in the order. This move would hurt his RBI opportunities and slightly diminish his value, but right now I have him at .288/79/21/96/1.

SCOTT ROLEN

Rolen’s career peaked in ’04. 2005 was a lost season, ’06 a bounceback and since a poor ’07 he has steadily improved to fantasy respectability. Call it the career death rattle, but FanGraphs career paths show a consistent spike leading to the Age 37 season – Rolen will be 36 in 2011. Just be sure you milk his production early in the season and sell high as he always fades in the later months. Another season of .280/70/20/80/3 would not be a surprise and it could be higher.

SLEEPER: MARK REYNOLDS

If you listened to The 4th and Home Show this past Saturday, you heard me talk about the drop in home runs across the league. That will not change, so jump on HR before you have to start paying a premium for them via trade. In that O’s lineup, Reynolds will kill the ball – along with your average so make sure you have some .300 hitters on your team. Reynolds is currently being drafted as the 11th 3B off the board (much like the jokers here!) and that is way too late for a guy who has averaged 35HR and 14 SBs the past 3 seasons. I have Reynolds down for .240/85/35/95/10.

BUST: JOSE BAUTISTA

16, 15, 15, 13, 54…which of these numbers don’t belong? He’s a career .244 hitter that had never had more than 16 home runs in a season. Even with his swing adjustments, expect pitchers to figure him out this year and those power numbers to come back to Earth. I think we’re looking at an upside of low 30’s in homers. .250/85/30/95/5

2011 Fantasy Baseball Draft Strategies: The Position Scarcity Effect

No doubt that all of us who have been playing fantasy baseball for at least a few years have heard of position scarcity. Over the last several seasons I think the popularity of this theory has become even greater. Prior to it getting a cool name, I think most players acknowledged the fact that there were few great shortstops to choose from, but I’m not sure how many people actually factored that into their draft strategy. Well, like many good ideas, once they get into the popular conscience they tend to be overblown and after time settle into a nice useful medium.

The basic premise behind position scarcity is that there are few elite players at some positions and therefore the elite players at those spots should have their value elevated somewhat to account for this fact. I agree with the logic whole-heartedly. Where I think we may have gone slightly astray is in determining the amount these values should be adjusted by versus those elite players at roles that have more depth. For example, when someone tries to convince me that Jose Reyes should be drafted ahead of Adrian Gonzalez because of position scarcity, I think we may have gone too far. While I would tend to classify them both as tier 2 players at their respective positions and admit that short stop is an extremely shallow spot, I don’t see the justification for the move when runs and average will be about a wash and Reyes only gets the edge in steals. Unless you have a dire need in steals, it seems to defy logic. Personally I believe the best available player in the draft will usually be the best player for your team. This won’t always be the case, but about 90% of the time this logic will serve you well.

Now for the 3 most scarce batter positions and their elite players (either tier 1 or 2):

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