Tag Archives: Aubrey Huff
Derrek Lee had a down year in 2010. Lee’s 19 home runs marked his lowest total since 1998 (min. 250 PA). His 80 runs were his lowest total since 2000. His 80 RBI were his lowest total since 2001.
I suppose saying he had a “down year” is a bit of an understatement. From 2007-2009 Lee averaged 26 home runs, 92 runs, 94 RBI, .304 AVG and a .340 BABIP. So what gives?
A closer look at Derrek Lee’s peripherals suggests serious unluckiness. Lee’s 2010 BABIP of .309 is his lowest since 2004 and doesn’t match his .322 career mark. The huge dip in his BABIP doesn’t jive with his 22.5 percent line-drive rate and career-low 1.3 percent infield fly-ball rate. All of Lee’s other peripherals are fairly similar to his career.
The Orioles offense looks very strong for 2011. Lee will be batting third behind Brian Roberts and Nick Markakis who get on base at a decent clip. Vladimir Guerrero, Luke Scott and Mark Reynolds will be batting behind him. Lee is hitting in a much-improved lineup and looks to have the perfect setup. Derrek Lee will have boatloads of opportunities to score and drive in runs.
Derrek Lee’s current ADP is 273. He is being taken after Adam Lind (182.1), Adam LaRoche (182.6), Carlos Pena (197.3), Gabby Sanchez (210.9) and Ike Davis (228.9). Adam LaRoche put up the best line of the five listed with .261/75/25/100. Those numbers are certainly obtainable.
It’s no guarantee that Lee will outperform all these guys but, the value is certainly there. Why even waste a pick on Paul Konerko (70.8), Billy Butler (84.1) or Aubrey Huff (107.2) when you can draft Derrek Lee 140-185 picks later?
2011 Projection: .291 AVG, 85 R, 27 HR, 93 RBI, 1 SB
Ryan Braun or Carlos Gonzalez at #1? That was the debate, though one guy even ranked Carl Crawford as his #1. Madness!
And…Ryan Braun takes home our #1 OF ranking, but it was close. You could definitely make an argument for either, but the composite sided with the guy who has done it more than once before. You’ll notice our individual rankings are all over the place, showcasing our different views. When compiled, it’s a pretty safe list with hidden gems when compared to the latest ADP data. There is lots and lots of value late in the draft, so if you miss out on top-tier guys while stockpiling other positions you can always get a proven vet in the 30s and 40s.
Onto the Rankings…
|1||Ryan Braun – MIL||1||2||2||1||1||1.4|
|2||Carlos Gonzalez – COL||2||3||1||2||2||2|
|3||Carl Crawford – BOS||3||1||3||4||3||2.8|
|4||Josh Hamilton – TEX||5||5||4||5||4||4.6|
|5||Matt Holliday – STL||4||6||5||3||5||4.6|
|6||Shin-Soo Choo – CLE||6||10||6||6||8||7.2|
|7||Matt Kemp – LAD||7||4||7||18||6||8.4|
|8||Nelson Cruz – TEX||22||9||9||7||7||10.8|
|9||Andrew McCutchen – PIT||9||11||8||14||12||10.8|
|10||Hunter Pence – HOU||13||12||13||11||9||11.6|
|11||Jason Heyward – ATL||10||13||15||9||11||11.6|
|12||Andre Ethier – LAD||15||14||12||12||16||13.8|
|13||Justin Upton – ARI||8||8||11||32||10||13.8|
|14||Jose Bautista – TOR||17||22||10||10||13||14.4|
|15||Jacoby Ellsbury – BOS||19||7||18||26||15||17|
|16||Alex Rios – CHW||20||17||16||13||23||17.8|
|17||Ichiro Suzuki – SEA||12||41||14||8||14||17.8|
|18||Jayson Werth – WAS||11||15||27||19||17||17.8|
|19||Jay Bruce – CIN||14||16||19||34||18||20.2|
|20||Corey Hart – MIL||16||31||20||29||26||24.4|
|21||Shane Victorino – PHI||28||25||21||35||20||25.8|
|22||Aubrey Huff – SF||25||26||25||15||39||26|
|23||Delmon Young – MIN||21||18||28||42||24||26.6|
|24||Drew Stubbs – CIN||23||21||30||41||19||26.8|
|25||Nick Markakis – BAL||18||24||36||25||31||26.8|
|26||Mike Stanton – FLA||24||37||31||28||21||28.2|
|27||Chris Young – ARI||33||27||22||39||25||29.2|
|28||Torii Hunter – LAA||30||30||41||17||37||31|
|29||Nick Swisher – NYY||45||29||33||23||29||31.8|
|30||Martin Prado – ATL||26||28||32||52||22||32|
|31||Juan Pierre – CHW||36||32||39||21||34||32.4|
|32||Curtis Granderson – NYY||32||40||23||36||33||32.8|
|33||Brett Gardner – NYY||27||20||40||38||44||33.8|
|34||B.J. Upton – TB||41||38||17||58||27||36.2|
|35||Colby Rasmus – STL||40||23||29||–||28||36.2|
|36||Carlos Lee – HOU||50||43||24||27||40||36.8|
|37||Bobby Abreu – LAA||42||46||34||22||42||37.2|
|38||Vernon Wells – LAA||35||58||43||20||36||38.4|
|39||Adam Jones – BAL||37||33||46||40||38||38.8|
|40||Angel Pagan – NYM||34||36||45||45||46||41.2|
|41||Jason Bay – NYM||31||56||35||51||35||41.6|
|42||Jose Tabata – PIT||47||19||48||46||56||43.2|
|43||Ben Zobrist – TB||–||52||50||16||41||44|
|44||Grady Sizemore – CLE||39||42||51||–||32||45|
|45||Michael Cuddyer – MIN||53||47||53||24||51||45.6|
|46||Carlos Beltran – NYM||38||35||56||57||47||46.6|
|47||Luke Scott – BAL||60||57||26||44||48||47|
|48||Ryan Raburn – DET||29||48||37||–||–||47.2|
|49||Magglio Ordonez – DET||–||45||44||30||58||47.6|
|50||Michael Bourn – HOU||56||50||47||47||45||49|
|51||Carlos Quentin – CHW||43||–||38||–||43||49.2|
|52||Manny Ramirez – TB||48||44||42||59||57||50|
|53||Austin Jackson – DET||52||55||59||55||30||50.2|
|54||Andres Torres – SF||–||54||52||37||49||50.6|
|55||Rajai Davis – TOR||44||39||–||60||50||50.8|
|56||Denard Span – MIN||–||53||58||31||54||51.4|
|57||Coco Crisp – OAK||–||34||–||–||55||54.4|
|58||Alfonso Soriano – CHC||49||–||49||–||52||54.4|
|59||Desmond Jennings – TB||–||–||–||33||–||55.4|
|60||Ryan Ludwick – SD||51||–||55||49||–||55.4|
JUSTIN UPTON…Upton is coming off a year in which he took a considerable step backwards. Through his first 3 seasons in the big leagues he had consistently improved his statistics as his playing time increased, expect a bounce back this year. For more, continue reading (here).
JACOBY ELLSBURY… Remember this guy? He’s a season removed from stealing 70 bases, scoring 94 runs, and batting .301. Ellsbury was a wasted pick for lot of fantasy owners last year, when he missed all but 18 games, but now he’s healthy and ready to go. I’ve seen this guy ranked all over the place (including our individual rankings) but he has the potential to be a top 10 outfielder. Don’t wait too long to grab him. .295/90/7/55/60
B.J. UPTON…Even though BJ Upton hit .237 last year, he still finished the season ranked as the 29th fantasy outfielder in Yahoo. His speed is too good to repeat his .304 BABIP and his career mark is .334.The 26 year old is fully healthy so his power should be back to stay. Other than Carl Crawford, he is the best candidate to go 20/40. .259/78/20/73/45
SLEEPER: JOSE TABATA…Most forget Jose Tabata was a touted Yankee prospect, but certainly remember his estranged wife. After his June call-up, Tabata went .321/53/3/31/14 in July/August/September. Extrapolate that and he goes .321/106/6/62/28 in a season. At only 22 he has plenty of time to develop into a double-digit HR hitter and the speed is real. Currently the #51 OF off the board. I have him at #19 with a projected 2011 line of .300/90/10/60/30.
BUST: MATT KEMP…Fantasy Managers have been waiting for the great Matt Kemp break out for the past couple seasons and I’m here to say they shouldn’t hold their breath. His unsustainably high BABIP, high K% and low BB% really caught up to him in 2010. He also forgot how to steal bases being caught almost half the time. Questions about his desire and makeup all spell reasons to stay away as other managers continue to way over pay for Kemp taking him as early as #16 overall. .278/85/25/85/25
Spring is here, kind of, as we had the start of baseball this weekend. All of us fantasy baseball fanatics have been waiting for this day since the end of last season and it’s been a long winter of withdrawal.
Without further ado, let’s get to the highlights from the games and the week of training:
- Giants 7, Diamondbacks 6 . Lincecum started and pitched 1 2/3 giving up 3 runs and 5 hits. Not a stellar start for the ace, but about typical for him in spring training. Joe Saunders started for Arizona and took the loss but had a nice 1-2-3 first inning. Aaron Rowand started in center with Andres Torres at DH, they are the 2 candidates for the CF job at the moment.
Every year, highly regarded prospects with little to no previous MLB exposure are hyped as possible fantasy studs for the upcoming season. It may not surprise anyone that, for the most part, first year players struggle to live up to expectations for a myriad of reasons: injury, lack of roster space/position blocking, regression at the high A level, financial reasons (read: arbitration eligibility deferral). But this doesn’t stop us in the fantasy world from dreaming that we will draft the next Jason Heyward or Ryan Braun or pick up the next Mike Stanton, Kevin Maas or Shane Spencer off of waivers (Yes, I am a Yankee fan; I am enlightened) – and hopefully avoid the next Alex Gordon or Brandon Wood.
Is it any surprise that Albert Pujols is our consensus #1? Didn’t think so. Much like the catchers, we all agreed that there is clearly a #1 at the position without question. We may never know Albert’s true age, but one thing is certain, he is getting older and two guys last year made a run at dethroning him: Miguel Cabrera and Joey Votto. In 2011, we may even see Adrian Gonzalez join them in the chase.
Does your Top 10 look like ours?
|1||Albert Pujols – STL||1||1||1||1||1||1.0|
|2||Miguel Cabrera – DET||2||2||3||3||2||2.4|
|3||Joey Votto – CIN||3||4||4||2||3||3.2|
|4||Adrian Gonzalez – BOS||4||3||2||5||5||3.8|
|5||Mark Teixeira – NYY||5||6||6||4||6||5.4|
|6||Prince Fielder – MIL||6||5||5||6||7||5.8|
|7||Ryan Howard – PHI||7||7||7||7||4||6.4|
|8||Kevin Youkilis – BOS||8||11||9||9||8||9.0|
|9||Justin Morneau – MIN||9||9||8||13||11||10.0|
|10||Kendry Morales – LAA||10||8||14||14||9||11.0|
|11||Buster Posey – SF||12||13||12||8||10||11.0|
|12||Adam Dunn – CHW||13||10||10||11||13||11.4|
|13||Victor Martinez – DET||14||12||11||10||14||12.2|
|14||Paul Konerko – CHW||11||15||13||15||12||13.2|
|15||Billy Butler – KC||15||14||16||12||17||14.8|
|16||Aubrey Huff – SF||17||19||18||17||15||17.2|
|17||Derrek Lee – BAL||–||17||15||18||16||17.4|
|18||Mike Napoli – TEX||–||16||–||16||–||19.0|
|19||Adam LaRoche – WAS||18||20||–||20||18||19.4|
|20||Carlos Pena – CHC||16||–||20||–||–||19.8|
Since it’s Valentine’s Day I’m going to come out and say it, I love Paul Konerko. The 34 year old has averaged 31HR, 95 RBI and a .280 average for the the past 10 seasons, and last year was one of his best (39HR, 111RBI, .312). The best part about Konerko is that he always slips in drafts, which makes him a middle round bargain to fill out one of your utility spots.
Billy Butler is one of the best young players you don’t know due to his playing for the woeful Royals. None of his individual numbers will blow you away but his above average production across all categories (except SB) makes him a valuable fantasy contributor that can be had as a bargain in middle rounds. He is also a September Star that you’ll want during your playoff run.
My Ike Davis ranking doesn’t show up on our list, but I had him ranked 18th, right behind Derrek Lee. His MiLB career BABIP suggests he has room to grow even from where he was last year (.321), which means his AVG will rise, as will the rest of his counting stats. With a healthy Mets team, I don’t see why Ike can’t go .280-85-23-85-4 (along with 35-40 2B & 80BB if your league counts them). For a 24-year old, that is pretty solid and a low cost option in the later rounds.
SLEEPER: GABY SANCHEZ
First full season in the bigs he hits .273 with 19 HR’s! Only 27 to start the season, I think we can expect bigger things this year from Gaby. Gotta be better than the slim pickings at the bottom of the 1st Base list.
BUST: ADAM LAROCHE
Career high K%(30.7) and BABIP(.330) both suggest major decline. Washington is tougher on lefties with a 94 HR park factor versus Arizona’s 114. Take a chance on a high ceiling guy and don’t waste it on LaDouche.