Tag Archives: Billy Butler

09.05.11 Box Score Breakdown: Fantasy MLB News and Notes

Now that the Northeast is restored from Irene, perhaps 4th and Home can restore itself as a staple in your diet…

The 4th and Home regular season has ended and just 4 are headed to the playoffs. The final standing of the nuts you know:

Mike      16-5-1
Killboy   15-5-2
Eric       12-10-0
Jesse     10-11-1
Chris      9-11-2
Brian      8-14-0

So now I play Jesse in Round 1 and Killboy and Eric square off.

Onto it!

4th and Home Player of the Day:Zach Stewart – 1-hit SHO/9:0…If you started him in this one, then you should be in Vegas.

The Bats:
Mike Morse – 2/4, 2 R, 2 HR, 3 RBI…A .315/62/26/82/2 line through 2/3 of a season. I’ll never let go of the fact I dumped him in April.

Jesus Montero – 2/3, 3 R, 2 HR, 3 RBI…His first two longballs and a taste of 2012 for fans.

Mark Reynolds – 3/4, 3 R, HR, 2 RBI, SB…BSFU and he continues to prove me right as a major sleeper this year while everyone was jumping on the Pedro Alvarez love train.

Dexter Fowler – 3/5, 2 R, 2 HR, 2 RBI…Batting .307 in the 2nd half and I could see him being a cheap source of stats come 2012.

Evan Longoria – 1/2, 2 R, HR, RBI, SB…A BSFU for Longoria who has been coming on strong of late.

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06.05.11 Box Score Breakdown: Fantasy MLB News and Notes

Now (8-1) after another clobbering this week of a ghost team. This week I face Eric who is always tough and then Killboy who is the reigning Champ. Not getting any easier! How’s everyone doing in their leagues?

Vamanos!

4th and Home Player of the Day: Adam Lind – 4/4, 2 R, 2 HR, 3 RBI…Is he back to 2009 Lind? The average sure does look good and he has 9 bombs now.

The Bats:
Drew Stubbs
– 2/5, 2 R, HR, RBI, SB…BSFU! He is the King of filling up the box score this year.

Matt Kemp – 2/3, 2 R, HR, 2 RBI…Three walks to boot! Kemp had a big weekend and now has 16 HR and 14 SB. He’s pretty much halfway to the 30/30 club and we’re barely into June. I ranted about Kemp in a pre-season radio program that if I had to pick one player that was a lock for the 30/30 club it was him.

Chad Billingsley – 2/2, R, HR, 3 RBI…Huh? Yeah, that’s right. Chad was ok in his pitching line (5/8/4/3:3), but was mighty with the stick!

Elvis Andrus – 2/3, R, HR, RBI…Still on pace for 100+ runs and 50+ steals. Who wudda thunk it?

Rickie Weeks – 2/5, 2 R, HR, 3 RBI…Weeks has a real good shot of going 25/25 this year.

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05.12.11 Box Score Breakdown: Fantasy MLB News and Notes

Thank you, Ubaldo Jimenez for burning me. Two years of great stats, I finally buy in and draft you over Weaver and JJ. Figures!

Anyway, onto it…

4th and Home Player of the Day: Carlos Beltran – 3/5, 3 R, 3 HR, 6 RBI…Holy 2006, Batman! Beltran went OFF in this one. He will be picked up by scores of people today and be traded for players like CarGo, but the realty is, he should be on your wire.

The Bats:
Asdrubal Cabrera
– 2/3, 2 R, HR, RB…He has definitely cooled off after that first week or so of the season, but he still has been pretty darn good. He’s now at .289/22/6/24/3.

John Jay – 3/6, R, 3 RBI…Filling in for Berkman, JJ lead-off and produced. Was hoping to see what he could do this year and then the Cards went and signed Puma.

J.J. Hardy – 2/5, 2 RBI…Hitting .538 since coming off the DL. Nice middle infield play if you ask me.

Billy Butler – 4/6, R, 2 RBI…It’s amazing seeing his batting splits when he’s wearing his bro (manzeer).

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04.09.11 Box Score Breakdown: Fantasy MLB News and Notes

A full slate of great games on the second Saturday of the season including a Doubleheader in Baltimore and a suspended game in San Diego. Kudos to the schedule makers for all the great divisional rivalries right off the bat – none better than Yankees-Red Sox which always has a playoff atmosphere and tons of fantasy implications. The Red Sox were desperate to build on Friday’s first win, but it was not to be as the Yanks prevailed 9-4. Not to be outdone, the Phillies hot bats picked right back up after Friday’s loss to crush their chief rival Braves 10-2. The Rangers were blanked in the opener by the O’s but then turned around and spanked them in the night cap 13-1. And then we had A’s at Twins – wow, what a slug fest as the A’s prevail 1-0 behind Gio. Neither of these teams can hit their way out of a wet paper bag. The Rays nightmare April continues as they dropped to 1-7 reminiscent of their pre-2008 dominance. The Giants Miguel Tejada walked off on the Cardinals to turn a 2-1 deficit into a 3-2 win.
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2011 Fantasy Baseball Sleeper: Derrek Lee

Derrek Lee had a down year in 2010. Lee’s 19 home runs marked his lowest total since 1998 (min. 250 PA). His 80 runs were his lowest total since 2000. His 80 RBI were his lowest total since 2001.

I suppose saying he had a “down year” is a bit of an understatement. From 2007-2009 Lee averaged 26 home runs, 92 runs, 94 RBI, .304 AVG and a .340 BABIP. So what gives?

A closer look at Derrek Lee’s peripherals suggests serious unluckiness. Lee’s 2010 BABIP of .309 is his lowest since 2004 and doesn’t match his .322 career mark. The huge dip in his BABIP doesn’t jive with his 22.5 percent line-drive rate and career-low 1.3 percent infield fly-ball rate. All of Lee’s other peripherals are fairly similar to his career.

The Orioles offense looks very strong for 2011. Lee will be batting third behind Brian Roberts and Nick Markakis who get on base at a decent clip. Vladimir Guerrero, Luke Scott and Mark Reynolds will be batting behind him. Lee is hitting in a much-improved lineup and looks to have the perfect setup. Derrek Lee will have boatloads of opportunities to score and drive in runs.

Camden Yards has a 126 home run index for right-handed hitters. Compare that to Turner Field (92) and Wrigley Field (102).

Derrek Lee’s current ADP is 273. He is being taken after Adam Lind (182.1), Adam LaRoche (182.6), Carlos Pena (197.3), Gabby Sanchez (210.9) and Ike Davis (228.9). Adam LaRoche put up the best line of the five listed with .261/75/25/100. Those numbers are certainly obtainable.

It’s no guarantee that Lee will outperform all these guys but, the value is certainly there. Why even waste a pick on Paul Konerko (70.8), Billy Butler (84.1) or Aubrey Huff (107.2) when you can draft Derrek Lee 140-185 picks later?

2011 Projection: .291 AVG, 85 R, 27 HR, 93 RBI, 1 SB

Fantasy Prospect Preview: Part Trois


Freddie Freeman (Icon SMI)

10. Freddie Freeman, Atl, 1b – Fast Freddie Freeman is a misnomer; he isn’t very fast (but how can you resist the moniker? It just flows so well).  Freddie, however, makes up for his lack of speed with the ability to hit for power and average.  If he translates his 2010 triple A line of 73/18/88/.319 to the majors, he’s a cheap Billy Butler at the end of your draft.  He didn’t exactly impress during his 24 PA debut with the varsity team, striking out a third of the time and hitting .167, but again, it was only 24 appearances.  With no Derrek Lee around, Freeman has the starting first base gig all to himself.  He plays a loaded position, but if Mr. Freeman gives you 20 hr 95 rbis and hits .295 – not completely out of the realm of possibility – you will be happy you didn’t select Chubbs Butler way earlier.

2011 Fantasy Baseball “September Stars” Series: Logan Morrison

Last week we looked at Ryan Raburn (here).

This week we peer into the crystal ball that is forecasting to determine if LOGAN MORRISON is primed for greatness in 2011. If you’re not in a league that counts BB or OBP you might have missed a very nice two months from a guy that won’t turn 24 until late August. And unless you’re a rookie named Stanton, you get a little overlooked from folks outside of Miami.

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2011 American League Central Previews- Royals

Today’s Focus: Kansas City Royals

The biggest news for the Royals this offseason is the loss of Zack Greinke. In return the Royals received Alcides Escobar, Lorenzo Cain and Jeremy Jeffress. Alcides Escobar is not only a HUGE defensive upgrade, he can also be a terror on the base paths and is a good contact hitter. Don’t let the 14 SB over the past two years fool you, anyone would have trouble stealing a base from the 8th spot in a National League lineup. He may be their top candidate for leadoff even though he can’t draw a walk. Lorenzo Cain also brings speed to the lineup but his Major League sample size is too small for us to make any solid predictions. Jeremy Jeffress looks to make an immediate impact in the bullpen while hitting 100 mph on the radar gun.

Billy Butler locked in at the 3 spot in the order. It will be interesting to see how the Royals handle the Eric Hosmer call up. The team would not have room for Hosmer, Butler and Kila Ka’aihue. Spring training will have to play out before we decide the odd man out in the 2B/3B situation. I would start Mike Aviles at 2B and Wilson Betemit at 3B until Mike Moustakas is ready, leaving Chris Getz the odd man out. Jeff Francoeur, Alex Gordon and a combination of Lorenzo Cain/Melky Cabrera will man the outfield.

The starting rotation for the Royals are nothing more than place-holders for the prospects waiting to arrive. Luke Hochevar is the staff ace (Hochevar a former #1 pick himself), followed by Jeff Francis, Bruce Chen, Kyle Davies and probably Vin Mazzaro. The bullpen is pretty right-handed unless Tim Collins makes the team. Robinson Tejeda is still the set-up man for Joakim Soria.

Notable Pick Ups: Alcides Escobar, Lorenzo Cain, Jeff Francoeur, Jeremy Jeffress, Vin Mazzaro, Melky Cabrera, Jeff Francis

Notable Losses: Zack Greinke, David DeJesus, Yuniesky Betancourt, Brian Bannister, Gill Meche

Look for the Royals and their revitalized lineup to pass the Cleveland Indians for 4th place in the A.L. Central in 2011.

2011 Fantasy Baseball Rankings: FIRST BASE

Is it any surprise that Albert Pujols is our consensus #1? Didn’t think so. Much like the catchers, we all agreed that there is clearly a #1 at the position without question. We may never know Albert’s true age, but one thing is certain, he is getting older and two guys last year made a run at dethroning him: Miguel Cabrera and Joey Votto. In 2011, we may even see Adrian Gonzalez join them in the chase.

(Image: Zuma Press)

Does your Top 10 look like ours?

RANK PLAYER Brian Mike Killboy Jesse Eric COMP
1 Albert Pujols – STL 1 1 1 1 1 1.0
2 Miguel Cabrera – DET 2 2 3 3 2 2.4
3 Joey Votto – CIN 3 4 4 2 3 3.2
4 Adrian Gonzalez – BOS 4 3 2 5 5 3.8
5 Mark Teixeira – NYY 5 6 6 4 6 5.4
6 Prince Fielder – MIL 6 5 5 6 7 5.8
7 Ryan Howard – PHI 7 7 7 7 4 6.4
8 Kevin Youkilis – BOS 8 11 9 9 8 9.0
9 Justin Morneau – MIN 9 9 8 13 11 10.0
10 Kendry Morales – LAA 10 8 14 14 9 11.0
11 Buster Posey – SF 12 13 12 8 10 11.0
12 Adam Dunn – CHW 13 10 10 11 13 11.4
13 Victor Martinez – DET 14 12 11 10 14 12.2
14 Paul Konerko – CHW 11 15 13 15 12 13.2
15 Billy Butler – KC 15 14 16 12 17 14.8
16 Aubrey Huff – SF 17 19 18 17 15 17.2
17 Derrek Lee – BAL 17 15 18 16 17.4
18 Mike Napoli – TEX 16 16 19.0
19 Adam LaRoche – WAS 18 20 20 18 19.4
20 Carlos Pena – CHC 16 20 19.8

 

PAUL KONERKO

Since it’s Valentine’s Day I’m going to come out and say it, I love Paul Konerko.  The 34 year old has averaged 31HR, 95 RBI and a .280 average for the the past 10 seasons, and last year was one of his best (39HR, 111RBI, .312).  The best part about Konerko is that he always slips in drafts, which makes him a middle round bargain to fill out one of your utility spots.

BILLY BUTLER

Billy Butler is one of the best young players you don’t know due to his playing for the woeful Royals.  None of his individual numbers will blow you away but his above average production across all categories (except SB) makes him a valuable fantasy contributor that can be had as a bargain in middle rounds.  He is also a September Star that you’ll want during your playoff run.

IKE DAVIS

My Ike Davis ranking doesn’t show up on our list, but I had him ranked 18th, right behind Derrek Lee. His MiLB career BABIP suggests he has room to grow even from where he was last year (.321), which means his AVG will rise, as will the rest of his counting stats. With a healthy Mets team, I don’t see why Ike can’t go .280-85-23-85-4 (along with 35-40 2B & 80BB if your league counts them). For a 24-year old, that is pretty solid and a low cost option in the later rounds.

SLEEPER: GABY SANCHEZ

First full season in the bigs he hits .273 with 19 HR’s! Only 27 to start the season, I think we can expect bigger things this year from Gaby. Gotta be better than the slim pickings at the bottom of the 1st Base list.

BUST: ADAM LAROCHE

Career high K%(30.7) and BABIP(.330) both suggest major decline. Washington is tougher on lefties with a 94 HR park factor versus Arizona’s 114. Take a chance on a high ceiling guy and don’t waste it on LaDouche.