Tag Archives: brian roberts

Killin’ the Odds & the Regular Season

Welcome to Killin’ the Odds & the Regular Season! In the “Today’s Games” section, you will see my picks to win for the day. I will post either the “Money Line” or the “Run Line”. The money line is always a “straight up” bet which means your team will never need to win or lose by a specific amount of runs. The money line odds represent what amount has to be wagered or what can be won. For example, if there is a minus sign (-) next to an amount, you have to wager that amount to win 100. If there is a plus sign (+) next to an amount, you will receive that amount for every 100 wagered. When you see a “Run Line”, that means a spread is involved. In Baseball, the spread is always 1.5 runs but you can find alternate run lines on some websites. When I post a run line of -1.5, that means our team must win by two runs. When you see a run line of +1.5, that means our team can lose by one run and still win the wager. Listen to our show from April 5th, 2011 for more explanation and tips.
 
Today’s Games (4/9/11)
 
New York Yankees (+134) @ Boston Red Sox (-144) My Pick: New York Yankees Money Line  +134
I’m not a huge Buchholz fan and +134 straight up for the Yankees is just too good. Cano, Jeter, A Rod and Teixeira are hitting a combined .388 with 3 home runs off of Buchholz.
 
(Game 1) Texas Rangers (-113) @ Baltimore Orioles (+103) My Pick: Texas Rangers Money Line -113
With injuries to JJ Hardy and Brian Roberts, the Orioles are a little dinged up at the moment. Since this is the first game of a double-header, Showalter will need to keep Zach Britton in the game as long as possible so he doesn’t run out of relief pitchers.
 
St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants (Over/Under 6.5) My Pick: Over -120
It’s rare to see an over/under as low as 6.5 runs. As good as Jamie Garcia was last year, he was bad on the road with a 3.82 ERA and a 1.51 WHIP. Matt Cain has had struggles with St. Louis in his career. In 5 starts he is sporting a 4.71 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP. On top of all this, Brian Wilson and Ryan Franklin have been terrible!
 
 
Thursday’s Results
 
Toronto Blue Jays: LOSS -100
 Why did Romero have to leave the game?!?!
 
Atlanta Braves: LOSS -100
Hanson was a disappointment again. Only three strikeouts in two starts?
 
Daily Total: -200
 
Brian “Killboy” Kilpatrick is currently up +368 imaginary dollars in 2011.
 
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Betting always involves a level of risk and you should never bet more than you can afford to lose. No guarantees are given as to the amount you will make from betting. Any liability from following any information given is completely waived by 4thandhome.com, and you are to understand that you follow it completely at your own risk.

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2011 Fantasy Baseball Bust: Rickie Weeks

 

Rickie Weeks dominated in 2010.

His final stats of 112/29/83/11 and triple slash line of .269/.366/.464 were impressive to say the least.

Read more of this post

2011 MLB Spring Training Review: Week of March 6th

Spring Training Quick Hits

An MRI has revealed Mariners catcher Miguel Olivo has suffered a strained adductor muscle and the team has no timetable for his return. The fact that I’m reporting this shows how weak this position truly is……. Read more of this post

2011 Fantasy Baseball Sleeper: Derrek Lee

Derrek Lee had a down year in 2010. Lee’s 19 home runs marked his lowest total since 1998 (min. 250 PA). His 80 runs were his lowest total since 2000. His 80 RBI were his lowest total since 2001.

I suppose saying he had a “down year” is a bit of an understatement. From 2007-2009 Lee averaged 26 home runs, 92 runs, 94 RBI, .304 AVG and a .340 BABIP. So what gives?

A closer look at Derrek Lee’s peripherals suggests serious unluckiness. Lee’s 2010 BABIP of .309 is his lowest since 2004 and doesn’t match his .322 career mark. The huge dip in his BABIP doesn’t jive with his 22.5 percent line-drive rate and career-low 1.3 percent infield fly-ball rate. All of Lee’s other peripherals are fairly similar to his career.

The Orioles offense looks very strong for 2011. Lee will be batting third behind Brian Roberts and Nick Markakis who get on base at a decent clip. Vladimir Guerrero, Luke Scott and Mark Reynolds will be batting behind him. Lee is hitting in a much-improved lineup and looks to have the perfect setup. Derrek Lee will have boatloads of opportunities to score and drive in runs.

Camden Yards has a 126 home run index for right-handed hitters. Compare that to Turner Field (92) and Wrigley Field (102).

Derrek Lee’s current ADP is 273. He is being taken after Adam Lind (182.1), Adam LaRoche (182.6), Carlos Pena (197.3), Gabby Sanchez (210.9) and Ike Davis (228.9). Adam LaRoche put up the best line of the five listed with .261/75/25/100. Those numbers are certainly obtainable.

It’s no guarantee that Lee will outperform all these guys but, the value is certainly there. Why even waste a pick on Paul Konerko (70.8), Billy Butler (84.1) or Aubrey Huff (107.2) when you can draft Derrek Lee 140-185 picks later?

2011 Projection: .291 AVG, 85 R, 27 HR, 93 RBI, 1 SB

2011 Fantasy Baseball Rankings: SECOND BASE

After everyone agreeing on the #1s for Catcher and First Base, we now run into positions where #1 is debatable. Robinson Cano or Chase Utley? Well, majority rules here so Cano takes our Composite #1. This was Utley’s position until guys like Pedroia and Cano put on MVP campaigns the past few seasons. Pedroia looks to be healthy and rebound, while Cano looks to prove why he should be #1 for the next few years.

RANK PLAYER Brian Mike Killboy Jesse Eric COMP
1 Robinson Cano – NYY 1 2 2 1 1 1.4
2 Chase Utley – PHI 2 1 1 2 2 1.6
3 Dustin Pedroia – BOS 4 3 4 4 3 3.6
4 Ian Kinsler – TEX 3 4 3 5 5 4.0
5 Dan Uggla – ATL 5 5 5 3 4 4.4
6 Brandon Phillips – CIN 6 6 7 7 6 6.4
7 Rickie Weeks – MIL 7 9 9 6 7 7.6
8 Aaron Hill – TOR 9 7 6 9 8 7.8
9 Martin Prado – ATL 8 8 10 10 9 9.0
10 Kelly Johnson – ARI 10 10 11 8 10 9.8
11 Gordon Beckham – CHW 13 11 8 11 15 11.6
12 Brian Roberts – BAL 11 12 12 12 12 11.8
13 Ben Zobrist – TB 12 13 13 13 14 13.0
14 Howie Kendrick – LAA 14 14 16 14 13 14.2
15 Neil Walker – PIT 16 16 14 16 11 14.6
16 Chone Figgins – SEA 15 15 15 15 16 15.2
17 Mike Aviles – KC 17 17 17 19 18.2
18 Omar Infante – FLA 19 18 18 17 18.6
19 Juan Uribe – LAD 20 20 19 18 18 19.0
20 Ty Wigginton – COL 17 20 20.0

DUSTIN PEDROIA

An MVP season in 2008, a great 2009, an injury-riddled 2010, and now in 2011 he is sometimes the 5th 2B off the board? With the revamped lineup in Boston, Pedroia will have another excellent season as he continues to show increased plate discipline. At age 27, don’t be surprised if he is the #1 2B off the board in 2012. (.300-110-20-85-20)

DAN UGGLA

Uggla has established himself as one of the premier 2B in all of baseball and one of the most consistent hitters the past 4 seasons.  His move out of a football stadium and its teal monster and into a better lineup in Atlanta won’t hurt either.  Uggla ended 2010 hitting line drives at almost a 30% clip, reducing his GB%, while also increasing FB% and HR/FB which could signal his best season is yet to come as he comes to the peak of his prime.

SLEEPER: BRIAN ROBERTS

Although derailed by injury last year, expect a return to 2009-type numbers for Roberts in a rejuvenated Baltimore lineup. See here.

BUST: IAN KINSLER

I don’t really get the fascination with this guy.  Yeah, there’s potential for some nice power and speed, but how often does that actually happen?  Aside from the 31 HR, 31 SB season in 2009, in which his batting average plummeted to .253, there’s really not much to write home about.  There’s no way i’m taking this guy in the 2nd round of the draft, which is where he went in TSN’s expert mock draft.

BUST: RICKIE WEEKS

Rickie’s 2010 HR/FB% was 17.3% (13.7% career), BABIP was .332 (.309 career) and K% was 28.3% (26.9% career). In Aug/Sept/Oct of 2010, he hit for a measily .251 AVG, 7 HR, 16 RBI, 4 SB and struck out a whopping 69 times. These numbers coupled with injury concerns, point to regression.

Fantasy Finds: Top 3 Underrated Second Basemen

The purpose of Fantasy Finds is to point out some names that have not been getting the attention they deserve on draft day. The focus of this article will be finding value at a thin position, second base.

1. Dan Uggla – Currently ranked #34 by Yahoo Fantasy Baseball


Last Season’s Statistics:

Average Runs HR RBI SB
.287 100 33 105 4

Very impressive stat line for Uggla last year which left him at number 18 in Yahoo’s 2010 rankings. In addition to his finish last year, he has now moved into the Braves lineup where he should thrive. Plan on a finish closer to last year’s 18 than the 34 Yahoo has tagged him with this season.

2. Kelly Johnson – Currently ranked #98 by Yahoo Fantasy Baseball


Last Season’s Statistics:

Average Runs HR RBI SB
.284 93 26 71 13

I think Johnson is getting a raw deal even from Yahoo. When it comes down to it, fantasy is all about offense. And the stats Johnson put up last year were very solid, especially for second base. The fact that he has his defensive liabilities, while soon to frustrate Diamondback fans on a regular basis, have not impact from a fantasy perspective as long as he keeps his job.

3. Brian Roberts – Currently ranked #104 by Yahoo Fantasy Baseball


Last Season’s Statistics:

Average Runs HR RBI SB
.278 28 4 15 12

Admittedly, those stats are probably deserving of a much lower ranking. However, Roberts was injured much of last season and only played in 59 games. Coming into this season healthy and with an upgraded lineup around him, it’s not unreasonable to expect a stat line more along the lines of his 2009 season:

Average Runs HR RBI SB
.283 110 16 79 30

Those numbers were strong enough to find him ranked as the 47th best player in Yahoo. Not bad for a player you will likely be able to grab as late as the 10th round of your draft.