Tag Archives: Brian Wilson

Killin’ the Odds & the Regular Season

Welcome to Killin’ the Odds & the Regular Season! In the “Today’s Games” section, you will see my picks to win for the day. I will post either the “Money Line” or the “Run Line”. The money line is always a “straight up” bet which means your team will never need to win or lose by a specific amount of runs. The money line odds represent what amount has to be wagered or what can be won. For example, if there is a minus sign (-) next to an amount, you have to wager that amount to win 100. If there is a plus sign (+) next to an amount, you will receive that amount for every 100 wagered. When you see a “Run Line”, that means a spread is involved. In Baseball, the spread is always 1.5 runs but you can find alternate run lines on some websites. When I post a run line of -1.5, that means our team must win by two runs. When you see a run line of +1.5, that means our team can lose by one run and still win the wager. Listen to our show from April 5th, 2011 for more explanation and tips.
 
Today’s Games (4/9/11)
 
New York Yankees (+134) @ Boston Red Sox (-144) My Pick: New York Yankees Money Line  +134
I’m not a huge Buchholz fan and +134 straight up for the Yankees is just too good. Cano, Jeter, A Rod and Teixeira are hitting a combined .388 with 3 home runs off of Buchholz.
 
(Game 1) Texas Rangers (-113) @ Baltimore Orioles (+103) My Pick: Texas Rangers Money Line -113
With injuries to JJ Hardy and Brian Roberts, the Orioles are a little dinged up at the moment. Since this is the first game of a double-header, Showalter will need to keep Zach Britton in the game as long as possible so he doesn’t run out of relief pitchers.
 
St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants (Over/Under 6.5) My Pick: Over -120
It’s rare to see an over/under as low as 6.5 runs. As good as Jamie Garcia was last year, he was bad on the road with a 3.82 ERA and a 1.51 WHIP. Matt Cain has had struggles with St. Louis in his career. In 5 starts he is sporting a 4.71 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP. On top of all this, Brian Wilson and Ryan Franklin have been terrible!
 
 
Thursday’s Results
 
Toronto Blue Jays: LOSS -100
 Why did Romero have to leave the game?!?!
 
Atlanta Braves: LOSS -100
Hanson was a disappointment again. Only three strikeouts in two starts?
 
Daily Total: -200
 
Brian “Killboy” Kilpatrick is currently up +368 imaginary dollars in 2011.
 
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2011 MLB Spring Training Review: Week of March 20th

 

This week in spring training the news was as follows, beginning with last Sunday and running through Saturday the 26th:

 

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2011 Fantasy Baseball Rankings: CLOSERS

It was very close, but Neftali Feliz edged out Carlos Marmol as our #1 Closer here at 4th and Home. You’ll notice Marmol was the only closer to get (2) #1 votes, but it wasn’t enough. Quite honestly, I don’t see how you go wrong with any of those top 5 guys and our Composite Ranking shows just how close they really were. Of course, if Feliz joins the rotation and Andrew Bailey has additional meetings with Dr. James Andrews, these rankings will shake up a bit. And yes, I am expecting Kimbrel to close for the Braves…I could be dead wrong.

Lots of value throughout these rankings, so waiting on a closer is always advised unless the top tier guys fall into your lap.

RANK PLAYER Brian Mike Killboy Jesse Eric COMP
1 Neftali Feliz – TEX 1 5 4 3 2 3
2 Carlos Marmol – CHC 4 1 5 5 1 3.2
3 Joakim Soria – KC 5 4 3 1 3 3.2
4 Brian Wilson – SF 3 3 1 7 4 3.6
5 Heath Bell – SD 6 2 2 4 5 3.8
6 Mariano Rivera – NYY 2 8 6 2 6 4.8
7 Andrew Bailey – OAK 9 7 10 8 7 8.2
8 Jonathan Papelbon – BOS 8 15 7 6 10 9.2
9 John Axford – MIL 10 10 14 10 8 10.4
10 Francisco Rodriguez – NYM 11 13 8 12 12 11.2
11 Matt Thornton – CHW 7 12 12 9 16 11.2
12 J.J. Putz – ARI 12 16 9 14 9 12
13 Huston Street – COL 13 11 11 14 14
14 Joe Nathan – MIN 15 6 16 15 19 14.2
15 Chris Perez – CLE 16 11 18 16 13 14.8
16 Jonathan Broxton – LAD 14 18 13 11 15.4
17 Brad Lidge – PHI 19 14 15 19 17 16.8
18 Craig Kimbrel – ATL 17 9 20 18 17
19 Jose Valverde – DET 13 20 15 18
20 Ryan Franklin – STL 20 17 18 19.4

NEFTALI FELIZ…Our #1 ranked closer now may not even be a closer at all – this is a topsy-turvy world we live in!  The 2010 AL Rookie of the Year racked up 40 saves last year to propel himself to the tops of fantasy rankings.  His peak value in fantasy is at closer this year but as a starter he is still going to rack up the Ks big time.  The question is whether he can get stretched out and develop a 3rd pitch to pair with his devastating fastball and curve.  Fantasy owners should hope Texas keeps him in the pen. 2.70/1.00/80/36 as Closer…10-7/3.30/1.25/166 as Starter

BRIAN WILSON…Rising K rate (11.21 per 9) and dropping BB rate (3.13 per 9) suggests he is only getting better. He will continue to get loads of opportunities in pitcher friendly AT&T Park. He also led the league in saves last year with 48. 2.25/1.15/96/45

JOHN AXFORD…Last season John Axford proved that he was ready to take over the closer role in Milwaukee.  After a May call up, he stole the closer job from Trevor Hoffman and saved 24 games while racking up 76 K’s  in 58 innings.  The Brewers will give Axford plenty of opportunities for saves this year, and the strikeouts are an added bonus. 2.85/1.25/88/35

SLEEPER: JOE NATHAN…Hey, you! Remember this guy? Since 2004 he’s been the #3 Closer (on average) in all of baseball and now he’s the #21 Closer off the board? So you’re a little nervous about his past TJ surgery? Don’t be. Lots of success stories where guys came back stronger (Josh Johnson, Francisco Liriano…) and Nathan will be no different. He’s already throwing as hard as he did before the injury and you will pay nothing for his services this year. By year’s end you will be happy because you heeded my advice. 2.25/1.00/80/35

BUST: FRANCISCO RODRIGUEZ…Coming off of thumb surgery, serious personal problems that led to his arrest and playing for a Mets team my colleague has predicted for a 71 win season, drafting Rodriguez as a top 10 closer is an extremely risky proposal. With the Mets potentially looking to shed dollars in season, 71 wins may be difficult and that translates to a lack of opportunities for a closer. K-Rod may be ready, but I just don’t see the Mets being willing and able this year. 3.00/1.14/50/26

2011 National League West Previews: Giants

Today’s Focus: San Francisco Giants

2010 Record: 92-70, World Series Champions

The San Francisco Giants scratched and clawed through a division that was pretty evenly matched in 2010. The Giants were 38-34 against the NL West, the Padres were also 38-34, the Rockies were 37-35, and the Dodgers bested them all going 40-32. They limited their injuries to Mark DeRosa, Freddy Sanchez and Edgar Renteria. Their pitching got them to the playoffs and their offense caught fire at the right time for them to win it all. Read more of this post