Tag Archives: Derrek Lee
Derrek Lee, 1B Baltimore Orioles (26 percent owned in Yahoo, 28.8 percent in ESPN)
Current Stat Line- .247 AVG / 26 R / 5 HR / 19 RBI / 2 SB
Lee has certainly not lived up to expectations so far in 2011 but his bat seems to be coming alive. In the past seven games Lee has hit .438 with five XBH and six runs. He has been shuffled between the fourth and sixth spot in the lineup so if he can stay healthy, he should help your team in AVG and RBI.
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Still trying to process how Cliff Lee can strike out 16 and lose, oh that’s right the Phil’s bats went back to sleep and they hate facing Derek Lowe who took a no-no into the 7th.
Here’s what else I saw:
Andre Ethier – 3/5… The Streak is now at 30!
Ryan Howard – 0/4 3 Ks… 3 for his last 24 since the Grand Slam
Chipper Jones – 2/5, R, RBI… Larry’s 24th RBI, 5th in the NL.
Jay Bruce – 1/4, R, HR, 3 RBI… Bruce’s 7th on the year, 2nd in as many days…could be going on a tear.
Jason Bourgeois – 3/5, R, SB… The Astros’ new lead off hitter is on a tear – 6 game hitting streak which includes 4 multi hit games and SBs in 5 of 6 games. He better be on your radar by now if not in your lineup, now batting .412 with 12 sb!
Hunter Pence – 2/4, R, 2 RBI… Pence now batting .300 with 10 2B and 27 RBI… but when will some of these doubles start to leave the park (none the past 9 games)?
Derrek Lee – 1/3, R, HR, RBI, BB… Lee’s 3rd HR but it’s his 2nd this week – Lee is starting to show signs of life that Killboy was looking for as a sleeper candidate.
Adam Lind – 2/5, 2 R, 2 RBI, HR… Lind now batting .317 with 7 HR, 11 game hitting streak which includes 6 HR! He is en fuego.
Jose Reyes – 3/4, 2 R, BB, SB… Joe King continues his quest to play his way out of Queens.
Derrek Lee had a down year in 2010. Lee’s 19 home runs marked his lowest total since 1998 (min. 250 PA). His 80 runs were his lowest total since 2000. His 80 RBI were his lowest total since 2001.
I suppose saying he had a “down year” is a bit of an understatement. From 2007-2009 Lee averaged 26 home runs, 92 runs, 94 RBI, .304 AVG and a .340 BABIP. So what gives?
A closer look at Derrek Lee’s peripherals suggests serious unluckiness. Lee’s 2010 BABIP of .309 is his lowest since 2004 and doesn’t match his .322 career mark. The huge dip in his BABIP doesn’t jive with his 22.5 percent line-drive rate and career-low 1.3 percent infield fly-ball rate. All of Lee’s other peripherals are fairly similar to his career.
The Orioles offense looks very strong for 2011. Lee will be batting third behind Brian Roberts and Nick Markakis who get on base at a decent clip. Vladimir Guerrero, Luke Scott and Mark Reynolds will be batting behind him. Lee is hitting in a much-improved lineup and looks to have the perfect setup. Derrek Lee will have boatloads of opportunities to score and drive in runs.
Derrek Lee’s current ADP is 273. He is being taken after Adam Lind (182.1), Adam LaRoche (182.6), Carlos Pena (197.3), Gabby Sanchez (210.9) and Ike Davis (228.9). Adam LaRoche put up the best line of the five listed with .261/75/25/100. Those numbers are certainly obtainable.
It’s no guarantee that Lee will outperform all these guys but, the value is certainly there. Why even waste a pick on Paul Konerko (70.8), Billy Butler (84.1) or Aubrey Huff (107.2) when you can draft Derrek Lee 140-185 picks later?
2011 Projection: .291 AVG, 85 R, 27 HR, 93 RBI, 1 SB
Is it any surprise that Albert Pujols is our consensus #1? Didn’t think so. Much like the catchers, we all agreed that there is clearly a #1 at the position without question. We may never know Albert’s true age, but one thing is certain, he is getting older and two guys last year made a run at dethroning him: Miguel Cabrera and Joey Votto. In 2011, we may even see Adrian Gonzalez join them in the chase.
Does your Top 10 look like ours?
|1||Albert Pujols – STL||1||1||1||1||1||1.0|
|2||Miguel Cabrera – DET||2||2||3||3||2||2.4|
|3||Joey Votto – CIN||3||4||4||2||3||3.2|
|4||Adrian Gonzalez – BOS||4||3||2||5||5||3.8|
|5||Mark Teixeira – NYY||5||6||6||4||6||5.4|
|6||Prince Fielder – MIL||6||5||5||6||7||5.8|
|7||Ryan Howard – PHI||7||7||7||7||4||6.4|
|8||Kevin Youkilis – BOS||8||11||9||9||8||9.0|
|9||Justin Morneau – MIN||9||9||8||13||11||10.0|
|10||Kendry Morales – LAA||10||8||14||14||9||11.0|
|11||Buster Posey – SF||12||13||12||8||10||11.0|
|12||Adam Dunn – CHW||13||10||10||11||13||11.4|
|13||Victor Martinez – DET||14||12||11||10||14||12.2|
|14||Paul Konerko – CHW||11||15||13||15||12||13.2|
|15||Billy Butler – KC||15||14||16||12||17||14.8|
|16||Aubrey Huff – SF||17||19||18||17||15||17.2|
|17||Derrek Lee – BAL||–||17||15||18||16||17.4|
|18||Mike Napoli – TEX||–||16||–||16||–||19.0|
|19||Adam LaRoche – WAS||18||20||–||20||18||19.4|
|20||Carlos Pena – CHC||16||–||20||–||–||19.8|
Since it’s Valentine’s Day I’m going to come out and say it, I love Paul Konerko. The 34 year old has averaged 31HR, 95 RBI and a .280 average for the the past 10 seasons, and last year was one of his best (39HR, 111RBI, .312). The best part about Konerko is that he always slips in drafts, which makes him a middle round bargain to fill out one of your utility spots.
Billy Butler is one of the best young players you don’t know due to his playing for the woeful Royals. None of his individual numbers will blow you away but his above average production across all categories (except SB) makes him a valuable fantasy contributor that can be had as a bargain in middle rounds. He is also a September Star that you’ll want during your playoff run.
My Ike Davis ranking doesn’t show up on our list, but I had him ranked 18th, right behind Derrek Lee. His MiLB career BABIP suggests he has room to grow even from where he was last year (.321), which means his AVG will rise, as will the rest of his counting stats. With a healthy Mets team, I don’t see why Ike can’t go .280-85-23-85-4 (along with 35-40 2B & 80BB if your league counts them). For a 24-year old, that is pretty solid and a low cost option in the later rounds.
SLEEPER: GABY SANCHEZ
First full season in the bigs he hits .273 with 19 HR’s! Only 27 to start the season, I think we can expect bigger things this year from Gaby. Gotta be better than the slim pickings at the bottom of the 1st Base list.
BUST: ADAM LAROCHE
Career high K%(30.7) and BABIP(.330) both suggest major decline. Washington is tougher on lefties with a 94 HR park factor versus Arizona’s 114. Take a chance on a high ceiling guy and don’t waste it on LaDouche.