Tag Archives: FanGraphs

2011 Fantasy Baseball “September Stars” Series: Madison Bumgarner

This week we take a look at our second “September Star” pitcher: Madison Bumgarner.

Bumgarner made only one start in 2009, but wound up getting 18 in 2010. His season was a little up and down by month, but he was stellar in July and September.

Let’s focus on his September stat line to try and discover if he can continue his effectiveness into 2011…

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2011 National League West Previews: Diamondbacks

Today’s Focus: Arizona Diamondbacks

2010 Record: 65-97

The Diamondbacks offense was literally hit or miss last year. They were 3rd in the NL in home runs but also broke the MLB all-time strikeout record. Some of this can be blamed on Mark Reynolds but the team still strikes out way too much. The players who stuck out at least 23% of the time with a minimum of 200 PA are; Kelly Johnson (25.3%), Chris Young (24.8%), Adam LaRoche (30.7%), Mark Reynolds (42.3%), Justin Upton (30.7%), Miguel Montero (23.9%), Chris Snyder (31.3%), Rusty Ryal (32.4%) and Tony Abreu (24.4%). Justin Upton is a bounce back candidate and I think Chris Young is a lock for 25/25. I’m not sure how well Russell Branyan plays in an NL lineup and Melvin Mora is showing his age.

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2011 Fantasy Baseball Bust: Rickie Weeks

 

Rickie Weeks dominated in 2010.

His final stats of 112/29/83/11 and triple slash line of .269/.366/.464 were impressive to say the least.

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2011 National League West Previews: Giants

Today’s Focus: San Francisco Giants

2010 Record: 92-70, World Series Champions

The San Francisco Giants scratched and clawed through a division that was pretty evenly matched in 2010. The Giants were 38-34 against the NL West, the Padres were also 38-34, the Rockies were 37-35, and the Dodgers bested them all going 40-32. They limited their injuries to Mark DeRosa, Freddy Sanchez and Edgar Renteria. Their pitching got them to the playoffs and their offense caught fire at the right time for them to win it all. Read more of this post

2011 Fantasy Baseball “September Stars” Series: Drew Stubbs

Last week we looked at the September Star phenomenon and how an astute eye could have forecasted a Jose Bautista 2010 breakout. This week we take a look at our first nominee, Drew Stubbs, to determine if he’s destined for 2011 stardom.

Photo by Donald Miralle/Getty Images North America

Before we get into Stubbs’ prospects, let’s examine the last 5 years of 20-30 players:

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2011 Fantasy Baseball “September Stars” Series: An Introduction

This Pre-Season Series will focus on those players who surged in September of the previous season, sometimes under the radar to the typical fantasy manager who was done managing and had already turned their focus towards football.

For instance, heading into the 2010 Draft how many savvy managers picked up on Jose Bautista going .257-22-10-21 in the previous September/ October, knowing then he was primed for a stellar 2010? I would venture a guess that most of the fantasy community wrote it off as a fluke, simply because Bautista was a 29-year-old, career .238 hitter who never recorded an ISO over .185 or a SLG over .420, and spent most of his days struggling to perform for one of the worst franchises in sports: the Pirates.

But what can we learn from this “Black Swan” to prepare us for future anomalies? Before we dive into our 2011 candidates, let’s examine Bautista a little more closely…

When you look at all of his numbers that are affected by plate discipline, the one area that screams “change” was his FB percentage which matter-of-factly: exploded.

Below, courtesy of FanGraphs, is Bautista’s career GB/FB/LD percentages. Do you see what this guy did from 2009 to 2010? He drastically changed his approach, turning into an extreme flyball hitter. Look at his GB%: a direct inverse. But, did he begin making this change in his approach in September of 2009? Well, if you squint at that final month of 2009 you’ll see a huge uptick in his FB percentage.

And what about Spring Training 2010? The guy hit 5HR in 57AB (HR every 11.4 AB).

So leading up to September 2009, Bautista hit 49HR in 1,645 career AB; or a HR every 33.6 AB.

From September 1st, 2009, until the end of the ’10 season (not including Spring Training), Bautista hit 64HR in 678AB; or a HR every 10.59 AB.

The MLB career leader in HR per AB is Mark McGwire. Over his career Mark McGwire hit a HR every…drumroll…..10.61 AB. So yeah, Bautista has been “pretty, pretty, pretty good.”

Our first 2011 Nomination coming up: Drew Stubbs.