Tag Archives: Fausto Carmona

The Casual Sabermetrician – First Half 2011 analysis

Welcome back to the Casual Sabermetrician.  It’s July, Summer is in full swing, and we’re at the half way point of the season.  We again look back on our pre-season exercise  and First Quarter Analysis of looking at tERA vs. ERA to find out which pitchers are pitching above their heads and which have been unlucky so far.  For fantasy purposes this translates to who we can sell high on and conversely who we might be able to buy low on.

Again, our method involves extracting tERA and ERA stats from Fangraphs into a spreadsheet and creating a formula to view tERA-ERA.  We can also look and see if the guys we looked at 7 weeks ago have regressed to the mean or not.
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2011 Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire Gems: American League

This week on Waiver Wire Gems – American League:

Jake Arrieta, SP Baltimore Orioles (27% owned in Yahoo, 36% ESPN)

Current Stat Line: 5 W / 1 L / 46 K / 4.03 ERA / 1.23 WHIP

His ERA won’t kill you and he’s winning games. Good K rate to go on top of it and you have yourself a nice back of the rotation pitcher available free on the wire in most leagues.

Projection: 14 W/ 6 L / 165 K / 3.95 ERA / 1.25 WHIP

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2011 Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire Gems: American League

This week on Waiver Wire Gems – American League:

Bartolo Colon, SP New York Yankees (28% owned in Yahoo, 26% ESPN)

Current Stat Line: 2 W / 1 L / 33 K / 3.86 ERA / 1.23 WHIP

Ok. His last start was rough, but when I read about his stem cell procedure on his shoulder and elbow it made me think of the six million dollar man. So how could I in good conscience pull Steve Austin off of the list???!! In all honesty, shoot for Carmona as one of my readers previously suggested.

Projection: 12 W/ 8 L / 155 K / 3.95 ERA / 1.30 WHIP

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Fantasy MLB Spot Starting: 05.13.11

Welcome back to Spot Starting. Let’s see if we can find a Jason for our Friday the 13th spot start and not a victim.

For games on Friday May 13th these selected pitchers might be had in your league (less than 50% owned in Yahoo! or ESPN) with percent owned Yahoo/ESPN, (team), and opponent:

Carl Pavano 28% /  8% (MIN) vs. TOR

Bartolo Colon 28% / 27% (NYY) vs. BOS

Fausto Carmona 26% /25 % (CLE) vs. SEA

Jeremy Guthrie 24% / 9% (BAL) @ TB

Tom Gorzelanny 14% / 8% (WAS) vs. FLA

Brandon McCarthy 14% / 10% (OAK) vs CWS

Phil Humber 10% / 7% (CWS) @ OAK

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Fantasy MLB Spot Starting: 05.10.11

Welcome to another week of Spot Starting.  Let me tell you, from experience – the difference between winning and losing your head to head match could be a Sunday Spot Start off the waiver wire.  Yesterday, if I had followed my own advice and picked up Fausto Carmona or better yet, Anibal Sanchez I would have avoided a painful loss.  I was protecting my  WHIP and hoping it would hold up instead of padding my Ks and going for another W.  It backfired and my opponent Chris beat me.  Sometimes you gotta gamble.  By the way, please read Chris’ weekly Minor League Recap, it’s always epic.

For games on Tuesday May 10th these selected pitchers might be had in your league (less than 50% owned in Yahoo! or ESPN) with percent owned Yahoo/ESPN, (team), and opponent:

Kyle Drabek 38% / 23% (TOR) vs. BOS

Kevin Correia 34% / 36% (PIT) vs LAD

Clayton Richard 24% / 3% (SD) @ MIL

Homer Bailey 13% / 5% (CIN) @ HOU

Freddy Garcia 11% / 9% (NYY) vs. KC

Mike Pelfrey 6% / 1% (NYM) @ COL

Jake Arrieta 5% / 5% (BAL) vs. SEA

Rick Porcello 5% / 3% (DET)@ MIN

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Fantasy MLB Spot Starting: 04.28.11

Well, after 5 straight quality start picks we were due for a clunker and boy did we get one from Brandon McCarthy last night.  Let’s hope Anibal Sanchez stops the bleeding tonight and that we pick a gem for tomorrow and we have some of our favorite options going.

For games on Thursday April 28th these selected pitchers might be had in your league (less than 50% owned in Yahoo! or ESPN) with percent owned Yahoo/ESPN, (team), and opponent:

Kyle McClellan 43% / 42% (StL) @ HOU

Scott Baker 28% / 10% (MIN) vs. TB

Fausto Carmona 18% / 8% (CLE) vs. KC

Livan Hernandez 7% / 6% (WAS) vs. NYM

Jeff Niemann 5% / 1% (TB) @ MIN

Brad Penny 3% / 1% (DET) vs. SEA

Chris Capuano 2% / 0.1% (NYM) @ WAS

My Pick: Scott Baker vs. Rays

Alternate: Kyle McClellan vs. Astros

Deep League Special: Chris Capuano vs. Nationals


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Killin’ the Odds & the Regular Season

Saturday , 4/2/11

Minnesota Twins (-113) @ Toronto Blue Jays (+103) My Pick: Twins Straight Up -113

The Jays’ outburst yesterday helped lower the price today. It’s a pretty good deal for a Liriano-Drabek matchup and Liriano doesn’t give up many long-balls. Expect the Twins to be patient with Kyle Drabek and make him throw strikes. I also give the edge to the Twins’ bullpen.

Chicago White Sox (-125) @ Cleveland Indians (+115) My Pick: White Sox Straight Up -125

The White Sox scored 15 runs yesterday but don’t blame it all on Fausto Carmona. It doesn’t look like they will repeat their dreadful April from 2010. The White Sox are far superior to the Indians which makes this an easy pick at -125.

Boston Red Sox (+105) @ Texas Rangers (-115) My Pick: Rangers Straight Up -115

Ian Kinsler, Nelson Cruz, Josh Hamilton and Michael Young have hit John Lackey hard in their careers. I think it will be another short day for Lackey in Arlington. The current Red Sox haven’t had much success with Cobly Lewis. With the Rangers being at home, take them to cover the Run Line of -1.5 (+165) if your feeling a little frisky.

Disagree? Light me up in the comments.

Brian “Killboy” Kilpatrick is currently up +662 imaginary dollars in 2011.

2011 MLB Spring Training Review: Week of February 27th

SPRING TRAINING QUICK HITS

There is still talk of Francisco Liriano being dealt to the Yankees within the next two weeks. Still not sure how this makes sense for Minnesota, but they’re not exactly doing anything to dispel the reports…Fausto Carmona has rightfully been named the Indians’ 2011 Opening Day starter, this after winning 13 games last year with a 3.77 ERA…Destined for the bullpen, Aroldis Chapman continues to electrify starting off the spring with 4K in 2 IP. And he’s also walked three…Just when it appeared time to worry about Domonic Brown‘s spring struggles, we now get to worry an additional 4-6 weeks as he fractured his hamate bone. Remember Ryan Zimmerman fractured the same one and it sapped his power for some time. Ben Francisco now has a great opportunity to do something with this opportunity…

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2011 American League Central Previews: Indians

Today’s Focus: Cleveland Indians

When I look at this team, I feel sad and I’m not even a Cleveland Indians fan.

It looks like Carlos Santana will be staring opening day and Shin-Soo Choo is returning healthy. Lonnie Chisenhall, Alex White and Jason Kipnis are their 3 best prospects and Kipnis may see time at 2B this year. Manager Manny Acta has mentioned Jared Goedert will get a good look at 3rd base this spring. In 481 ABs between AA and AAA, Goedert hit .283 with 27 home runs and 83 RBI.

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