Tag Archives: Ike Davis

2011 Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire Gems: National League

Danny Espinosa, 2B Washington Nationals (33% owned in Yahoo, 55.5% in ESPN)

Current Stat Line: .219 AVG / 29 R / 10 HR / 33 RBI / 5 SB

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2011 Fantasy Baseball Sleeper: Derrek Lee

Derrek Lee had a down year in 2010. Lee’s 19 home runs marked his lowest total since 1998 (min. 250 PA). His 80 runs were his lowest total since 2000. His 80 RBI were his lowest total since 2001.

I suppose saying he had a “down year” is a bit of an understatement. From 2007-2009 Lee averaged 26 home runs, 92 runs, 94 RBI, .304 AVG and a .340 BABIP. So what gives?

A closer look at Derrek Lee’s peripherals suggests serious unluckiness. Lee’s 2010 BABIP of .309 is his lowest since 2004 and doesn’t match his .322 career mark. The huge dip in his BABIP doesn’t jive with his 22.5 percent line-drive rate and career-low 1.3 percent infield fly-ball rate. All of Lee’s other peripherals are fairly similar to his career.

The Orioles offense looks very strong for 2011. Lee will be batting third behind Brian Roberts and Nick Markakis who get on base at a decent clip. Vladimir Guerrero, Luke Scott and Mark Reynolds will be batting behind him. Lee is hitting in a much-improved lineup and looks to have the perfect setup. Derrek Lee will have boatloads of opportunities to score and drive in runs.

Camden Yards has a 126 home run index for right-handed hitters. Compare that to Turner Field (92) and Wrigley Field (102).

Derrek Lee’s current ADP is 273. He is being taken after Adam Lind (182.1), Adam LaRoche (182.6), Carlos Pena (197.3), Gabby Sanchez (210.9) and Ike Davis (228.9). Adam LaRoche put up the best line of the five listed with .261/75/25/100. Those numbers are certainly obtainable.

It’s no guarantee that Lee will outperform all these guys but, the value is certainly there. Why even waste a pick on Paul Konerko (70.8), Billy Butler (84.1) or Aubrey Huff (107.2) when you can draft Derrek Lee 140-185 picks later?

2011 Projection: .291 AVG, 85 R, 27 HR, 93 RBI, 1 SB

National League East Previews: Mets

Today’s focus: New York Mets


2010 Record: 79-83, 4th Place NL East (10th in NL)

The Mets off-season made news for all the wrong reasons as the headlines have been filled, not with big name free agent signings, but with talk of Madoff, lawsuits, massive debt, plans to sell off team shares, and loans from MLB. This all coming on the heals of fun news items like closer Francisco Rodriguez’s assault arrest that also led to season ending surgery on his thumb and ace Johan Santana’s sexual assault charges and season ending rotator cuff surgery that will keep him out until June at the earliest. All-Star Centerfielder Carlos Beltran has combined for only 145 games the past two years on his surgically repaired knees and has just told the team that he needs to move to Rightfield to reduce wear and tear. Not exactly a ringing endorsement of health going into 2011.

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2011 Fantasy Baseball Rankings: FIRST BASE

Is it any surprise that Albert Pujols is our consensus #1? Didn’t think so. Much like the catchers, we all agreed that there is clearly a #1 at the position without question. We may never know Albert’s true age, but one thing is certain, he is getting older and two guys last year made a run at dethroning him: Miguel Cabrera and Joey Votto. In 2011, we may even see Adrian Gonzalez join them in the chase.

(Image: Zuma Press)

Does your Top 10 look like ours?

RANK PLAYER Brian Mike Killboy Jesse Eric COMP
1 Albert Pujols – STL 1 1 1 1 1 1.0
2 Miguel Cabrera – DET 2 2 3 3 2 2.4
3 Joey Votto – CIN 3 4 4 2 3 3.2
4 Adrian Gonzalez – BOS 4 3 2 5 5 3.8
5 Mark Teixeira – NYY 5 6 6 4 6 5.4
6 Prince Fielder – MIL 6 5 5 6 7 5.8
7 Ryan Howard – PHI 7 7 7 7 4 6.4
8 Kevin Youkilis – BOS 8 11 9 9 8 9.0
9 Justin Morneau – MIN 9 9 8 13 11 10.0
10 Kendry Morales – LAA 10 8 14 14 9 11.0
11 Buster Posey – SF 12 13 12 8 10 11.0
12 Adam Dunn – CHW 13 10 10 11 13 11.4
13 Victor Martinez – DET 14 12 11 10 14 12.2
14 Paul Konerko – CHW 11 15 13 15 12 13.2
15 Billy Butler – KC 15 14 16 12 17 14.8
16 Aubrey Huff – SF 17 19 18 17 15 17.2
17 Derrek Lee – BAL 17 15 18 16 17.4
18 Mike Napoli – TEX 16 16 19.0
19 Adam LaRoche – WAS 18 20 20 18 19.4
20 Carlos Pena – CHC 16 20 19.8

 

PAUL KONERKO

Since it’s Valentine’s Day I’m going to come out and say it, I love Paul Konerko.  The 34 year old has averaged 31HR, 95 RBI and a .280 average for the the past 10 seasons, and last year was one of his best (39HR, 111RBI, .312).  The best part about Konerko is that he always slips in drafts, which makes him a middle round bargain to fill out one of your utility spots.

BILLY BUTLER

Billy Butler is one of the best young players you don’t know due to his playing for the woeful Royals.  None of his individual numbers will blow you away but his above average production across all categories (except SB) makes him a valuable fantasy contributor that can be had as a bargain in middle rounds.  He is also a September Star that you’ll want during your playoff run.

IKE DAVIS

My Ike Davis ranking doesn’t show up on our list, but I had him ranked 18th, right behind Derrek Lee. His MiLB career BABIP suggests he has room to grow even from where he was last year (.321), which means his AVG will rise, as will the rest of his counting stats. With a healthy Mets team, I don’t see why Ike can’t go .280-85-23-85-4 (along with 35-40 2B & 80BB if your league counts them). For a 24-year old, that is pretty solid and a low cost option in the later rounds.

SLEEPER: GABY SANCHEZ

First full season in the bigs he hits .273 with 19 HR’s! Only 27 to start the season, I think we can expect bigger things this year from Gaby. Gotta be better than the slim pickings at the bottom of the 1st Base list.

BUST: ADAM LAROCHE

Career high K%(30.7) and BABIP(.330) both suggest major decline. Washington is tougher on lefties with a 94 HR park factor versus Arizona’s 114. Take a chance on a high ceiling guy and don’t waste it on LaDouche.