Tag Archives: J.A. Happ

Fantasy MLB Spot Starting: 04.15.11

Welcome to 4th and Home’s latest daily article called Spot Starting where we will highlight Starting Pitchers who are likely available on your league’s waiver wire and are projected to be starters the following day.  As we’ve discussed a lot on this site, starting pitchers are a lot less consistent and hard to predict year to year.  We’ve also pointed out all the value to be had in Starters late in drafts and off the waiver wire.  Using the last guy(s) on your bench as a flex position that you drop/add can be a very useful strategy to pad your pitching stats, especially in daily leagues.  On days when you have open pitcher slots it’s always advantageous to scan the waiver wire for favorable match ups.  Pitchers might be hard to project year to year, but it’s much easier to look at single game match ups and splits, much as you might do in Fantasy Football with your Defense.  One minor caveat is to be mindful of your league’s rules on maximum number of moves you can make in a season.  For instance, the league I play in allows 60 moves.  In a 22 week season, that’s around 3 per week.  Allowing for DL moves and other waiver pickups, if you do 1-2 Spot Starts per week, you should be just fine and you might just pick up a few extra head to head wins or eke out a pitching category.

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Killin’ the Odds & the Regular Season

Welcome to Killin’ the Odds & the Regular Season! In the “Today’s Games” section, you will see my picks to win for the day. I will post either the “Money Line” or the “Run Line”. The money line is always a “straight up” bet which means your team will never need to win or lose by a specific amount of runs. The money line odds represent what amount has to be wagered or what can be won. For example, if there is a minus sign (-) next to an amount, you have to wager that amount to win 100. If there is a plus sign (+) next to an amount, you will receive that amount for every 100 wagered. When you see a “Run Line”, that means a spread is involved. In Baseball, the spread is always 1.5 runs but you can find alternate run lines on some websites. When I post a run line of -1.5, that means our team must win by two runs. When you see a run line of +1.5, that means our team can lose by one run and still win the wager. Listen to our show from April 5th, 2011 for more explanation and tips.
 
Today’s Games (4/10/11)
 
Florida Marlins (-114) @ Houston Astros (+104) My Pick: Marlins Money Line
I still like the Marlins lineup better than the Astros lineup even though Hanley Ramirez is out. You have to love the discount due to the injury. J.A. Happ was garbage in his first outing. 
 
Chicago Cubs +1.5(-135) @ Milwaukee Brewers -1.5(+115) My Pick: Brewers Run Line
Gallardo pitched a shutout the last time he pitched but the score still came out to 1-0. What swayed me here was the fact that the Brewers offense have been putting up a few more runs recently and all their wins have come at home.
 
New York Yankees -1.5(+140) @ Boston Red Sox +1.5(-160) My Pick: Yankees Run Line
It took me a while to pull the trigger on this one because Josh Beckett is on my fantasy team and I really need him today. But when you’re in a rut, you need to take advantage of every edge you can. Everyone knows of Beckett’s struggles versus the Yankees in his career (6.26 ERA, 1.56 WHIP) and he is going up against CC Sabathia.
 
Saturday’s Results
 
New York Yankees: WIN +134
I never thought I would say this, “THANK GOD FOR THE YANKEES!”
 
(Game 1) Texas Rangers: LOSS -100
It looks like I should have picked game 2.
 
St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants (Over/Under): Loss -100
I will take the over on 6.5 runs almost every time.
 
Daily Total: -66
 
Brian “Killboy” Kilpatrick is currently up +302 imaginary dollars in 2011.
 
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Betting always involves a level of risk and you should never bet more than you can afford to lose. No guarantees are given as to the amount you will make from betting. Any liability from following any information given is completely waived by 4thandhome.com, and you are to understand that you follow it completely at your own risk.

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National League Central Previews: Astros

Today’s Focus:  Houston Astros

2010 Record:  76-86, 4th Place NL Central

After trading away long time Astros, Roy Oswalt and Lance Berkman, last summer, Houston is looking to the next generation to lead this team.  Hunter Pence becomes the de facto leader of the team with 3 full seasons of solid play under his belt.  The Stro’s are also hoping their young corner infielders Brett Wallace and Chris Johnson can develop into productive major leaguers.  Johnson seems to be up for the challenge, he posted strong numbers after his 2010 call up, but Wallace may not be ready for prime time yet.

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