Tag Archives: Jaime Garcia

The Casual Sabermetrician – First Half 2011 analysis

Welcome back to the Casual Sabermetrician.  It’s July, Summer is in full swing, and we’re at the half way point of the season.  We again look back on our pre-season exercise  and First Quarter Analysis of looking at tERA vs. ERA to find out which pitchers are pitching above their heads and which have been unlucky so far.  For fantasy purposes this translates to who we can sell high on and conversely who we might be able to buy low on.

Again, our method involves extracting tERA and ERA stats from Fangraphs into a spreadsheet and creating a formula to view tERA-ERA.  We can also look and see if the guys we looked at 7 weeks ago have regressed to the mean or not.
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06.14.11 Box Score Breakdown: Fantasy MLB News and Notes

A great show last night. You have to listen to hear the crazy Killboy story. Too insane to believe!

Onto it!

4th and Home Player of the Day: Justin Verlander – 2-hit SHO, 12K…Verlander walked Brantley in the 7th to end the perfect game and then gave up a single to Cabrera in the 8th to end the no-no. Besides that, another dominating outing by Verlander.

The Bats:
Domonic Brown
– 2/4, 2 R, 2 HR, 2 RBI…The Rook is holding his own. I think he may explode this summer.

Jimmy Rollins – 2/5, 2 R, HR, 2 RBI…J-Roll needs to get going for owners and the Phillies.

Chase Utley – 2/3, R, HR, 2 RBI…I think he is just about BACK.

Shane Victorino – 3/5, 2 R…Look for him also to explode this summer when the Phillies offense starts clicking.

Brett Gardner – 3/4, 3 R, RBI, SB…Time for him to get going while Loverboy is on the DL.

Curtis Granderson – 2/4, 2 R, HR, 4 RBI…The HRs just keep on coming.

Nick Swisher – 2/3, 2 R, HR, RBI…Been a rough year so far for Swish.

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05.06.11 Box Score Breakdown: Fantasy MLB News and Notes

Still trying to process how Cliff Lee can strike out 16 and lose, oh that’s right the Phil’s bats went back to sleep and they hate facing Derek Lowe who took a no-no into the 7th.

Here’s what else I saw:

The Bats:
Andre Ethier – 3/5… The Streak is now at 30!

Ryan Howard – 0/4 3 Ks… 3 for his last 24 since the Grand Slam

Chipper Jones – 2/5, R, RBI… Larry’s 24th RBI, 5th in the NL.

Jay Bruce – 1/4, R, HR, 3 RBI… Bruce’s 7th on the year, 2nd in as many days…could be going on a tear.

Jason Bourgeois – 3/5, R, SB… The Astros’ new lead off hitter is on a tear – 6 game hitting streak which includes 4 multi hit games and SBs in 5 of 6 games.  He better be on your radar by now if not in your lineup, now batting .412 with 12 sb!

Hunter Pence – 2/4, R, 2 RBI… Pence now batting .300 with 10 2B and 27 RBI… but when will some of these doubles start to leave the park (none the past 9 games)?

Derrek Lee – 1/3, R, HR, RBI, BB… Lee’s 3rd HR but it’s his 2nd this week – Lee is starting to show signs of life that Killboy was looking for as a sleeper candidate.

Adam Lind – 2/5, 2 R, 2 RBI, HR… Lind now batting .317 with 7 HR, 11 game hitting streak which includes 6 HR!  He is en fuego.

Jose Reyes – 3/4, 2 R, BB, SB… Joe King continues his quest to play his way out of Queens.

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2011 Fantasy Baseball Hot & Cold W/E 4-10

Every Monday we will be bringing you the Top 3 hot and cold baseball players from around the major leagues. The twist, I’ll also be providing a buy or sell recommendation on the cold players to help you decide if this is a guy to target in a trade offer or someone you should cut if they’re clogging a bench spot, while on the other side giving you the sign on whether to sell high or buy the continued dominance.

For the last week, here are your Hot & Cold recommendations:

HOT

Paul Konerko

Last 7 games: .393 Avg, 5 R, 3 HR, 9 RBI, 0 SB

Call: Sell

Konerko will get you around 30 home runs and 100 RBI, but if an owner in your league is seeing over 40 homers and a .300+ batting average, sell high.

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04.03.11 Box Score Breakdown: Fantasy MLB News and Notes

Ian Kinsler, Nelson Cruz, and Mark Teixeira all went yard again. That makes 3 in 3 games for each of them.

Miguel Cabrera, Jorge Posada, Howie Kendrick (3 in 4 games) and sleeper catcher Ryan Hanigan each belted two home runs.

Brennan Boesch went 4-4 with a HR and 4 RBI.

Max Scherzer and Phil Hughes both looked terrible giving up 6 home runs between them. Better days are ahead for Scherzer, but Hughes’ velocity was down. Monitor him.

Matt Harrison shut the Sawx down, striking out 8 over 7 innings allowing 7 base runners and one run.

Javier Vazquez, welcome to the American Lea….wait a tick. Ok, so league matters no more to Vazquez. His velocity scared me off in the pre-season, so I wouldn’t go near him in drafts and now it’s still around where he was for the Yanks. Owners be scared. Vazquez was lit up by the AAAA Mets lineup, serving up 2 homers and 5 walks in 2.1 innings.

R.A. Dickey shut down the Fish over 6 innings, allowing 8 base runners and striking out 7.

The ChiSox offered John Danks no run support as he lost to the Tribe. Turned in a great outing nonetheless, giving up just 2 runs on 6 hits while K-ing 8.

Tim Hudson shut the Nats down going 7 strong allowing only 3 hits while striking out 5.

Roy Oswalt beat his old team striking out 6, allowing 2 runs on 5 hits.

Ryan Howard stayed hot going 3-5 with a home run and 4 RBI.

Rookie Zach Britton was great in his first MLB start for the O’s, striking out 6 Rays in 6 innings and giving up just 1 run on 3 hits. Speculative grab!

Jaime Garcia was masterful against the Padres, shutting them out and allowing just 6 base runners while striking out 9. I do not think this will be the norm, but if you have him you’ll take it.

Starlin Castro went 3-4 and is now hitting .615. He will hit .300, but he needs more counting stats to be elite.

Bobby Abreu reached base SEVEN times, going 5-5 with 2 BB and a HR. Wow. Didn’t think the old man had it in ’em!

Gio Gonzalez shut the M’s down, although he did allow 6 hits and 4 walks in 7 innings. Is it possible he finishes 2011 with an ERA lower than his WHIP?

EDIT…

Disbaled List: Evan Longoria, Jair Jurrjens, and Brian Matusz were all placed on the 15-day DL. Longoria will be out three weeks with a strained oblique. Matusz will be sidelined at LEAST three weeks, maybe six, with a strained intercostal muscle. Jurrjens (side) was also placed on the 15-day DL, but is expected to make his debut on April 16th.

National League Central Previews: Cardinals

Today’s Focus: St. Louis Cardinals

2010 Record: 86-76, 2nd Place NL Central

This will more than likely be the Cardinals last season without the best player in baseball, Albert Pujols. After the 2011 season, his 11th as a cardinal, Mr. Pujols will be a free agent and is apparently seeking a $300 million dollar, 10 year deal.  The Cards were not able to work out a deal before spring training, so all negotiations will be off until the season ends.  If Pujols leaves, so will the Cards chances of competing in this division in the years to come.
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The Casual Sabermetrician – a look at SPs

Welcome to the Casual Sabermetrician.  If you are anything like me, you’re interested in advanced baseball statistics but all the formulas and your lack of an advanced degree in mathematics leave your head spinning.  The good news is, these Saber stats are always being tweaked and new ones are always being invented, so it’s not too late to get in on the ground floor on some and to use this knowledge to your advantage on Draft Day.  Let’s dig in.

Our first example will be to look at starting pitching.  In most, if not all leagues, hitters are valued over pitchers.  One major reason is that pitchers are much less consistent and harder to predict than hitters.  Why is this?   It’s simple, once bat meets ball a lot of what happens next is out of the pitcher’s control.  The statistics we have to address this are grouped under the heading DIPS (Defense Independent Pitching Statistics), these have been around since 1999 and were invented by Voros McCracken.  If this sounds familiar, it’s because you read about it in Moneyball.  Stats that have been used the past decade include Defense-Independent Component ERA (DICE) and the more widely used Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) invented by Tango TigerThe Hardball Times has their own version of FIP, but it is Tango Tiger’s that is used on most sites, most notably Fangraphs.

But the stat I want to look at more closely in this post is tERA – True Runs Allowed (also known as TRA).  This is a much newer stat invented by Graham MacAree of Stat Corner.  It seeks to improve upon FIP and xFIP (Expected FIP) by taking into account the performance of balls in play.

From Stat Corner:

The hope for tRA then was to construct a metric which takes into account every action a pitcher is responsible for and turns those numbers into runs and outs based around a highly logical and transparent mathematical framework.

For fantasy purposes – how can we use tERA to help us in our upcoming draft?  By looking at the delta between ERA and tERA and looking for outliers.  This is a simple exercise and you can do it at home.  On FanGraphs – go to Leaderboards for Pitchers and select Advanced.  Export this chart to Excel.  Open the file and add a column and call it ERA-tERA.  Create a formula to subtract the tERA column from ERA and then sort.  Let’s see what stands out…

The Unlucky:

Justin Masterson (0.89); Kyle Davies (0.88); Chris Narveson (0.78); James Shields (0.78); Jeremy Bonderman (0.72)

The Lucky:

Clay Bucholz (-1.59); Trevor Cahill (-1.04); Tim Hudson (-1.03); Rodrigo Lopez (-1.01); Jaime Garcia (-0.93)

Let’s analyze the above.  Masterson looks to regress to the mean more than most but is useful only in the deepest or AL only leagues with his extreme BB/9 rate.  Davies is in the same boat as Masterson.  Narveson is interesting and could be a good sleeper pick in deep leagues on an improved Brewers team that is all in this year, he is going undrafted in most mockdrafts.  Shields is where this list gets interesting.  Big Game James has struggled since his and the Rays breakout season in ’08.  Shields has suffered from a lot of bad luck the past 2 seasons including an unsightly .341 BABIP in ’10, but his peripherals are all good – his K/BB ranked 10th in the majors in 2010.  The Rays don’t look to be contenders, but look for Shields to improve in 2011.  His current ADP is 160 (43rd SP) so he could also come as a big time bargain in later rounds.  Bonderman – eh, he’s undraftable.  Another pitcher of note is Zach Greinke – his delta is (0.66) and moving to the aforementioned Brewers and the  NL, it’s easy to imagine Zach rekindling his ’09 mastery.   His ADP is 47 (8th SP) so you might want to reach to ensure you get him, but if he slips to the 4th or 5th round in your draft you better pounce.

Buchholz’s delta jumps way off the page at a whopping -1.59 runs.  His 2010 peripherals were below league average so he is due for a major dose of reality in 2011.  He is being drafted 91st (25th SP) ahead of guys like Roy Oswalt and Shawn Marcum – I want no part of Buchholz’s return to reality and neither do you – let the uninformed over pay for him.  Trevor Cahill is another good young SP who is due for a major regression – his incredible league lowest .236 BABIP is just not sustainable.  He’s being drafted right after Buchholz – pass.  Hudson’s low K/9 rate and .249 BABIP also signal a regression in ’11.  At ADP 140 (38th) he’s not quite as risky but look at picking up Shields instead.  Lopez is undraftable, Garcia’s high walk rate is cause for concern and his impressive rookie campaign will yield to the inevitable sophomore slump, he’s only worth a late round flyer in deep or NL leagues.

I hope this first installment of the Causal Sabermetrician was helpful, I’ll see you in the next episode where we’ll turn to the offense.