Tag Archives: Jeremy Hellickson

08.25.11 Box Score Breakdown: Fantasy MLB News and Notes

Note to self: You cannot leave posts in the DRAFT position. You must schedule them. There, posted yesterday’s article. Enjoy the tardy BSB!

Hurricane on its way up the East Coast. Hope all you East Coasters are out of harm’s way.

Onto it!

4th and Home Player of the Day: Bronx Bombers – Three grand slams. 22 runs. 21 hits. Just. Ridiculous.

The Bats:
Brian McCann – 2/4, 2 R, 2 HR, 4 RBI…Pass on him every year. ADP way too high. Took Napoli in the last round and he is the #2 catcher. McCann? #4.

Curtis Granderson – 2/4, 4 R, HR, 5 RBI…He may wind up with 150 runs this year. In Chris’ lineup.

Russell Martin – 5/5, 3 R, 2 HR, 6 RBI…On Chris’ bench. OUCH!

Robinson Cano – 2/4, R, HR, 5 RBI…The final salami of the rout.

Paul Goldschmidt – 3/4, R, HR, 3 RBI, SB…BSFU! He Ks a ton, but I think he has a future.

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The Casual Sabermetrician – First Half 2011 analysis

Welcome back to the Casual Sabermetrician.  It’s July, Summer is in full swing, and we’re at the half way point of the season.  We again look back on our pre-season exercise  and First Quarter Analysis of looking at tERA vs. ERA to find out which pitchers are pitching above their heads and which have been unlucky so far.  For fantasy purposes this translates to who we can sell high on and conversely who we might be able to buy low on.

Again, our method involves extracting tERA and ERA stats from Fangraphs into a spreadsheet and creating a formula to view tERA-ERA.  We can also look and see if the guys we looked at 7 weeks ago have regressed to the mean or not.
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Killin’ the Odds & the Regular Season

Welcome back to Killin’ the Odds & the Regular Season! In the “Today’s Games” section, you will see my picks to win for the day. I will post either the “Money Line” or the “Run Line”. The money line is always a “straight up” bet which means your team will never need to win or lose by a specific amount of runs. The money line odds represent what amount has to be wagered or what can be won. For example, if there is a minus sign (-) next to an amount, you have to wager that amount to win 100. If there is a plus sign (+) next to an amount, you will receive that amount for every 100 wagered. When you see a “Run Line”, that means a spread is involved. In Baseball, the spread is always 1.5 runs but you can find alternate run lines on some websites. When I post a run line of -1.5, that means our team must win by two runs. When you see a run line of +1.5, that means our team can lose by one run and still win the wager. Listen to our show from April 5th, 2011 for more explanation and tips.

Killin’ the Odds & the Regular Season

Welcome back to Killin’ the Odds & the Regular Season! In the “Today’s Games” section, you will see my picks to win for the day. I will post either the “Money Line” or the “Run Line”. The money line is always a “straight up” bet which means your team will never need to win or lose by a specific amount of runs. The money line odds represent what amount has to be wagered or what can be won. For example, if there is a minus sign (-) next to an amount, you have to wager that amount to win 100. If there is a plus sign (+) next to an amount, you will receive that amount for every 100 wagered. When you see a “Run Line”, that means a spread is involved. In Baseball, the spread is always 1.5 runs but you can find alternate run lines on some websites. When I post a run line of -1.5, that means our team must win by two runs. When you see a run line of +1.5, that means our team can lose by one run and still win the wager. Listen to our show from April 5th, 2011 for more explanation and tips.

04.06.11 Box Score Breakdown: Fantasy MLB News and Notes

Some injury news to bat lead-off todayUbaldo Jimenez was placed on the 15-day DL, but should be ready to go as soon as he’s eligible. His cut cuticle was not allowing him to grip the ball correctly. As a Ubaldo owner, the injury and he are “questionable” (not that there’s anything wrong with that) but I hope this explains his terrible Opening Day start…The battered Cubs lost both Randy Wells (strained forearm) and 2008 first-rounder Andrew Cashner (stiff shoulder) to the DL. Matt Garza, Big Z and Ryan Dempster (who has looked like garbage) will have to carry this team in hopes that they don’t fall 10 games back of the Redlegs before May 1st. The Cashner injury seems to be more serious than the Wells injury, so we’ll see what happens in the next two weeks but “stiff” and “shoulder” are not words you want to hear regarding a pitcher’s injury.

Adam Dunn, like Matt Holliday, needed an emergency appendectomy. If his recovery is anything like Holliday’s, he should be back within a week or so.

I had Joel Hanrahan ranked as my #17 closer this year (Brian had him at #18) and he already has 4 saves for the Pirates. He did give up a run, but with the Pirates he should approach 30 saves with a decent ERA and WHIP.

Pirate co-ace Kevin Correia out-dueled Chris Carpenter allowing 7 baserunners, zero runs and striking out 3 in 7. Don’t go molesting your waiver wire for this guy.

Dan Haren was fantastic against the Rays and now sits at (1-0) with a 1.23 ERA and 0.68 WHIP after his first two starts. He hurled 7.2 innings of 4 hit ball, allowing just 4 hits (2 to Sam Fuld) and a HR. He struck out 6, walked none and now sports a 12:0 ratio through 14.2 innings. This year, Haren’s back. I think he might be top 10 even though we had him at 19 in our rankings.

Jeremy Hellickson took his first loss as a major leaguer, but not after flashing why he’s a top prospect. Hellboy struck out 10 over 5.2 innings, but was done in by 3 runs on 6 hits (one of which was a HR) and 2 walks. His next start is at Fenway, but as an owner I’d be starting him against the ’27 Yankees.

Alfonso Soriano keeps hitting. He hit his 3rd home run in his last 4 games. 30 HR? Eh, still skeptical.

Check the rankings. I told you to stay away from Chad Billingsley. After 2 games he now has a 8.00 ERA and 1.67 WHIP. Sure, April has always been one of his worst months, but I don’t trust him.

My goodness Carlos Quentin keeps raking. 2 more doubles. That gives him 5. 3 more RBI. Now he has 10. Oh, he’s also batting .500. If he keeps it up, I’ll be telling you to sell high.

Buster Posey, thanks for joining us: 3-5, HR, 4 RBI.

Tim Lincecum, you ARE the biggest freak! Timmy was just awesome, striking out 13 Friars over 7 innings and allowing just 3 hits and a run. I’ll take that.

Red Sox…you are now (0-5). Haha! I hate Phillie fans, I hate Yankee fans (I even hate Jersey Met fans), but Sawx fans are the worst! Ok, seriously. I figured the Tribe would get stomped once the Sawx bats woke up, but no. Adrian Gonzalez did go yard, but it wasn’t enough as Dice-K and the bullpen were throwing BP out there. Don’t panic Sawx fans, you’ll still win the East.

Mike Pelfrey and Joe Blanton, it makes me sick to watch either of you. Last night was the perfect storm. Met fans rejoice, “Big Pelf is our ace!”

Logan Morrison watch: 0-2 with 3 more walks. He now has an 8:4 BB:K ratio.

Eric’s 2011 MLB Predictions

Like most of my fellow 4th and Home colleagues, I’m picking Boston to win the AL this year.  Utley’s injury makes the NL race a little more wide open and I’m going with the Brewers.   I’m also predicting that a MLB star will wind up on reality TV.

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Brian’s 2011 MLB Predictions

I may not be our resident betting expert, but I’ve got a good feeling about these picks.

AL East Champ: Yankees

AL Central Champ: Tigers

AL West Champ: Rangers

AL Wild Card: Red Sox

NL East Champ: Braves

NL Central Champ: Reds

NL West Champ: Rockies

NL Wild Card: Phillies

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Fantasy Prospect Preview: Fin

 

Desmond Jennings (Nick Laham/Getty Images)

5. Desmond Jennings, TB, OF – Jennings has the tools to make Tampa forget all about Carl Crawford and his free wheelin’ base stealin’ ways.  Well, maybe not completely.  He doesn’t have the same power capabilities (never more than 9 home runs at any minor league level, and just 3 in AAA) and had some injury woes during 2008 and early 2010, but he can run the bases and hit for average with the best of the youngsters.  He also has a career double digit walk rate, which is not far from his K rate, always a beloved ratio to us fantasy geeks.  The Johnny Damon/Manny Ramirez signings complicate things, and the Rays might want to prolong their control over him by keeping him at AAA Durham until June or later.  His MLB debut last fall is pretty irrelevant for predicting his future production, so move along, nothing to see there.  Jennings isn’t worth drafting until very late at this point at best, but he can be a very valuable 3 category producer, with big contributions to stolen bases and runs, if given the opportunity.  Don’t sleep on him as he could still figure very strongly in Tampa’s 2011 plans.

 

Jesus Montero (AP)

4. Jesus Montero, NYY, C – Ah, my boy.  Home Run Jesus.  The heir to the throne occupied by Jorge Posada these last 11-12 seasons.  At least in theory.  Montero could end up being the back -up catcher to Russell Martin come opening day, after Francisco Cervelli went down with a leg injury in spring training.  It has become more and more clear that Posada will see little to no time behind the plate this year, in an effort to transition him to full time DH. However, don’t put it past the Yankees to decide to wait on Montero to give him more seasoning in triple A, mostly to work on his defense and to retain more club control over him in the future.  But if Martin cant regain even a semblance of his 2006-2008 form/re-injures his surgically repaired hip and the Yanks need Montero’s bat, any minor league stay will be short lived.  Jesus is a proven power and average force who has a chance to put up 20+ hrs and hit close to .300 – he started slow in triple A last year but put up big time numbers in the second half and finished 21/.289 with 66 runs and a .353 OBP.  His K rate did spike up to 20%, but it could just be an aberration, as he was in the mid-teens the rest of his minor league career; still be prepared for a couple of golden sombreros here and there as the kid finds his way.  I wouldn’t worry too much about his defensive skills being a deterrent.  If the guy hits, he’ll play.  There are a bunch of variables that need to work themselves out, but lately it is looking more and more as if Jesus is primed to deliver the loaves and the fishes in 2011 – sorry, couldn’t resist.

 

Mike Moustakas (Adam Foster)

3.    Mike Moustakas, KC, 3b – A possible surprise at #3, we analyze one of the members of the prized Royals farm system.  The positives: Moustakas is 22, he plays 3B for a non-contending team – where there is an opening now that former super-prospect Alex Gordon is in the OF – and he flat out rakes, which is the most important reason he should be given a look-see as a potential game-changer for your squad at some point in 2011.  The big negative: he’s KC property.  This means instead of manning the hot corner early on in the season, he will mostly likely spend unnecessary time in triple A putting up glorious #’s, while Royals fans watch whoever starts at third (right now it looks like Mike Aviles has the inside track) underwhelm as expected.  A June or later call up might be the reality for Ol’ Mousy, but when he does finally get the nod, he could be a 2nd half wonder.  He tore through double AA last year (21 hrs, .347 avg. and .413 OBP in 66 games) and leveled off some in AAA (15/.293/.314 in 52 games, though was victim of .271 BABIP)  but his power as you can see is legit.  Some might say he should be placed below names like Chapman, Jennings and Montero, and a valid argument can be made for that.  But I think if he pulverizes the minors at the start of the season and KC plays like, well, KC, it will be next to impossible for the Royals to ignore what they have waiting in the wings for too long.  Moose is the real deal, a potential ‘Kevin Maas Award’ winner who could make a huge impact in spite of not starting the season in the bigs.

 

Domonic Brown (Nick Laham/Getty Images)

2.    Domonic Brown, Phi, OF – At #2, we have Mr. Brown.  Speed, power, average, he has the total 5 category fantasy package.  But even in these early spring days, he has already had his fair share of adversity to deal with.  He was already in a position battle with Ben Francisco for the right to replace dearly departed stud RF Jayson Werth, didn’t exactly impress in his first 15 at bats (9 Ks) and, to add injury to insult, (pun intended) he recently broke the hamate bone in his right hand (but not before getting a hit in the same at bat; Charlie Sheen would be proud), which means he will miss anywhere from 3-6 weeks.  Now the good news: Brown will be back in playing form mid-April/early May, so he won’t miss much time.  He dominated minor league ball throughout his career and his few at bats with the senior circuit (70 PA’s last year) aren’t a cause for concern given the small sample size.  Bill James has him putting up a very, very nice line of 84/26/94/28/.288 in 596 PAs, which was admittedly pretty optimistic, even before the hand injury.  But if he comes anywhere near this projection, you will be very happy you took the chance on him late.  Mr. Brown has big shoes to fill and enormous expectations to boot, but even with the setbacks, he has the potential to be the best fantasy rookie of 2011.

 

Jeremy Hellickson (Elsa/Getty Images)

1.    Jeremy Hellickson, TB, SP – And finally at #1, the Rays latest greatest pitching phenom.  Hellboy here has already gotten his share of accolades, after his impressive MLB debut last fall during TB’s playoff run, hence his #1 prospect designation.  Fantasy stats show domination to the tune of a 4-0 record, with a 3.47 era and 1.10 WHIP.  His peripherals didn’t disappoint either, as he struck out a shade over 8 per 9 innings and walked under 2 per 9.  His hr/9 was 1.24, the only real blemish in an otherwise stellar cup of coffee.  But with Helly sure to make the TB rotation (especially with Matt Garza now out of the way) as a possible #4/definite #5 with a still very good defensive alignment behind him, he could be the darling of the back of your starting rotation.  He gives up a lot of fly balls, which can spell doom in the loaded AL East, but you can live with that when the upside is so tantalizing.  He has had to deal with a strained hamstring in spring training, but this injury doesn’t look serious.  I wouldn’t overreach for Hellickson (or any rookie for that matter), but he presents the best case for hitting the fantasy jackpot among the rookie set.

So that does it for the preview.  Don’t spend too much time thinking about which one of these newbies will be a bona-fide fantasy star this year; if you do, you might win most creative draft, but you also might just win the participation trophy in your league at the end of the year.  Happy Prospecting!

2011 Fantasy Baseball Rankings: STARTING PITCHERS

Leave it to Killboy to disagree who the No. 1 Starting Pitcher should be in drafts this year. While all of us were picking Roy Halladay, Killboy chose Tim Lincecum. I am not sure many of us here condone the use of a first round pick on a pitcher, but if you’re going to take one; Halladay is your guy. Doc recorded 21 wins in his first year with the Phillies to go along with a 2.44 ERA, a 1.04 WHIP and 219 K. A beautiful Cy Young season.

“The Year (after) the Pitcher” still shows a lot of high quality arms available pretty deep into the draft. I have been burned many times by pitching, so loading up in more shallow positions before grabbing a pitcher is my recommendation for 2011. Of course, if any of these studs fall – pounce!

Onto the Rankings…

RANK PLAYER Brian Mike Killboy Jesse Eric COMP
1 Roy Halladay – PHI 1 1 2 1 1 1.2
2 Felix Hernandez – SEA 3 2 3 2 2 2.4
3 Tim Lincecum – SF 2 4 1 4 3 2.8
4 Cliff Lee – PHI 4 3 4 3 4 3.6
5 Jon Lester – BOS 6 8 5 12 5 7.2
6 Josh Johnson – FLA 8 9 11 7 6 8.2
7 Clayton Kershaw – LAD 9 5 6 17 7 8.8
8 CC Sabathia – NYY 7 12 9 6 11 9
9 Cole Hamels – PHI 13 10 7 5 14 9.8
10 Zack Greinke – MIL 5 11 16 8 10 10
11 Justin Verlander – DET 12 7 10 15 12 11.2
12 Ubaldo Jimenez – COL 10 15 14 14 8 12.2
13 Jered Weaver – LAA 17 13 8 10 16 12.8
14 David Price – TB 11 6 19 21 9 13.2
15 Mat Latos – SD 15 14 13 11 13 13.2
16 Tommy Hanson – ATL 21 16 18 19 15 17.8
17 Roy Oswalt – HOU 20 19 20 13 17 17.8
18 Francisco Liriano – MIN 16 18 12 26 19 18.2
19 Dan Haren – LAA 18 17 17 18 22 18.4
20 Matt Cain – SF 19 20 23 16 18 19.2
21 Chris Carpenter – STL 24 22 24 9 21 20
22 Max Scherzer – DET 22 23 21 25 20 22.2
23 Shaun Marcum – MIL 26 25 26 20 26 24.6
24 Yovani Gallardo – MIL 14 39 15 34 23 25
25 Brett Anderson – OAK 25 21 29 39 24 27.6
26 Ted Lilly – LAD 35 24 37 22 30 29.6
27 Daniel Hudson – ARI 34 26 30 24 35 29.8
28 Clay Buchholz – BOS 28 32 44 32 25 32.2
29 Tim Hudson – ATL 39 31 41 23 29 32.6
30 Hiroki Kuroda – LAD 37 34 25 29 38 32.6
31 Chad Billingsley – LAD 23 45 27 31 37 32.6
32 Wandy Rodriguez – HOU 27 42 32 28 48 35.4
33 Jonathan Sanchez – SF 40 38 34 35 31 35.6
34 Ryan Dempster – CHC 31 43 28 33 44 35.8
35 Ricky Nolasco – FLA 33 29 33 37 49 36.2
36 Colby Lewis – TEX 46 37 39 27 34 36.6
37 Madison Bumgarner – SF 36 33 42 40 41 38.4
38 John Danks – CHW 41 46 51 30 32 40
39 Brandon Morrow – TOR 29 40 35 59 40 40.6
40 Gio Gonzalez – OAK 30 30 38 78 28 40.8
41 Jeremy Hellickson – TB 43 27 40 57 51 43.6
42 Jhoulys Chacin – COL 47 41 49 44 39 44
43 Phil Hughes – NYY 42 54 47 36 42 44.2
44 Josh Beckett – BOS 38 50 22 71 43 44.8
45 Trevor Cahill – OAK 59 36 59 45 27 45.2
46 Jaime Garcia – STL 52 35 65 42 33 45.4
47 Edinson Volquez – CIN 44 28 55 56 52 47
48 Ricky Romero – TOR 32 69 43 54 47 49
49 Brett Myers – HOU 55 48 54 55 36 49.6
50 Matt Garza – CHC 49 62 52 41 46 50
51 C.J. Wilson – TEX 63 44 66 38 45 51.2
52 Ian Kennedy – ARI 54 51 56 43 53 51.4
53 Gavin Floyd – CHW 61 63 31 52 56 52.6
54 Scott Baker – MIN 64 59 57 46 54 56
55 Jorge De La Rosa – COL 45 74 45 68 59 58.2
56 Edwin Jackson – CHW 67 49 63 50 65 58.8
57 Jake Peavy – CHW 76 68 36 49 76 61
58 Johnny Cueto – CIN 60 67 58 64 57 61.2
59 Ervin Santana – LAA 56 57 72 73 50 61.6
60 James Shields – TB 57 60 48 62 61.6
61 Jordan Zimmermann – WAS 51 66 53 75 63 61.6
62 Carlos Zambrano – CHC 50 55 71 77 58 62.2
63 Jair Jurrjens – ATL 65 56 79 51 64 63
64 Travis Wood – CIN 47 47 62 63.6
65 Anibal Sanchez – FLA 73 53 70 70 55 64.2
66 Brian Matusz – BAL 48 61 50 64.2
67 Javier Vazquez – FLA 53 46 74 73 65.4
68 Bronson Arroyo – CIN 71 79 69 53 61 66.6
69 John Lackey – BOS 75 64 64 65 71 67.8
70 Carl Pavano – MIN 66 80 67 61 69 68.6
71 A.J. Burnett – NYY 58 65 60 69
72 Derek Holland – TEX 70 58 62 75 69.2
73 Dallas Braden – OAK 77 48 67 70.8
74 Brett Cecil – TOR 69 76 60 73.4
75 Johan Santana – NYM 78 60 72 74.4
76 Erik Bedard – SEA 52 75.2
77 Clayton Richard – SD 79 71 78 68 75.4
78 Brandon Webb – TEX 77 61 79 75.8
79 Jonathon Niese – NYM 68 80 70 76
80 Joel Pineiro – LAA 58 76.4

TOMMY HANSON…Hanson stumbled last year with his ERA climbing from 2.89 in ’09 to 3.33 in ’10, but he  did improve his walks going from 3.24/9 in ’09 to an impressive 2.49/9 in ’10. If you focus on the 2nd half, he sizzled with a 2.51 ERA and 0.98 WHIP. At only 24 years old and with Hudson and Lowe around to keep the #1 starter pressure off of him, expect to see Hanson continue to blossom this year. 15-9/3.25/1.17/200

SHAUN MARCUM…The Marcum trade was probably the most under rated move of the entire off season.  Marcum doesn’t overpower hitters, but has great command and one of the best changeups in the game that he misses bats with it. His GB/FB/LD splits are as consistent as can be but he has been able to bring his HR/FB rate way down along with his BB/9.  Shaun might be the only guy Bill James isn’t bullish on this year but I love Marcum coming over to the NL and he is a steal with an ADP of 27 SP (103 overall).  13-8/3.60/1.15/158

JEREMY HELLICKSON…”Hellboy” is currently going off the board as the #41 SP, which is where he’s ranked in our composite. I can understand the reservations, but here is why you need to grab him before that: he dominated in the minors to the tune of a 2.71 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, and 9.8 K/9 over 580 IP. He has MLB “stuff”, including two great breaking pitches, and he showcased that last season when he got four spot starts. As a matter of fact, the Rays dealt Matt Garza just so Hellickson would have a rotation spot in 2011. With the ability to keep the ball low in the zone and the great defense behind him, there is no reason he can’t keep his ERA and WHIP low with high K totals even if he is limited to about 180 innings this year. 14-10/3.40/1.15/185

SLEEPER: GIO GONZALEZ…In his first full season as a starter for the A’s, Gonzalez put ups some impressive stats; 15 wins, 3.23 ERA, and 171 K’s.  He especially turned it on after the All Star break when he shaved a point off his first pre-break ERA, lowered his WHIP, and increased his K/9.  The 25 year old could be in line for an excellent season with monster K’s (his minor league K/9 is 10.3 and he’s already struck out 10 batters in 5 innings of pre-season work). 16-8/3.30/1.26/200

BUST: TREVOR CAHILL…Cahill finished 2010 with 18 wins and a 2.97 ERA. He also sported a poor 5.4 K/9 and a ridiculous .236 BABIP. I’m not sure how the Baseball Gods missed this one. Expect regression. 12-10/3.96/1.24/129