Tag Archives: Jhoulys Chacin

The Casual Sabermetrician – First Half 2011 analysis

Welcome back to the Casual Sabermetrician.  It’s July, Summer is in full swing, and we’re at the half way point of the season.  We again look back on our pre-season exercise  and First Quarter Analysis of looking at tERA vs. ERA to find out which pitchers are pitching above their heads and which have been unlucky so far.  For fantasy purposes this translates to who we can sell high on and conversely who we might be able to buy low on.

Again, our method involves extracting tERA and ERA stats from Fangraphs into a spreadsheet and creating a formula to view tERA-ERA.  We can also look and see if the guys we looked at 7 weeks ago have regressed to the mean or not.
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Killin’ the Odds & the Regular Season

Welcome to Killin’ the Odds & the Regular Season! In the “Today’s Games” section, you will see my picks to win for the day. I will post either the “Money Line” or the “Run Line”. The money line is always a “straight up” bet which means your team will never need to win or lose by a certain amount. The money line odds represent what amount has to be wagered or what can be won. For example, if there is a minus sign (-) next to an amount, you have to wager that amount to win 100. If there is a plus sign (+) next to an amount, you will receive that amount for every 100 wagered. When you see a “Run Line”, that means a spread is involved. In Baseball, the spread is always 1.5 runs but you can find alternate run lines on some websites. When I post a run line of -1.5, that means our team must win by two runs. When you see a run line of +1.5, that means our team can lose by one run and still win the wager. Listen to our show from April 5th, 2011 for more explanation and tips.
 
Today’s Games (4/7/11)
 
 
Oakland Athletics (Even) @ Toronto Blue Jays (-120) My Pick: Blue Jays Money Line
With a price of -120, people are giving Trevor Cahill more respect than he deserves. He will not repeat 2011 but people are betting like he will. Cahill was also gave up 8 runs in 5 innings in his only start at the Rogers Centre in 2010. Jose Bautista probably won’t play but Ricky Romero has looked good thus far.
 
Atlanta Braves (-114) @ Milwaukee Brewers (-106) My Pick: Atlanta Braves Money Line
The Brewers have had trouble scoring runs as of late. Tommy Hanson was terrific in his only start at Miller Park Last year (8 IP, 0 ER, 8 K). Shaun Marcum wasn’t very sharp in his first start with the Brewers. It’s time to start picking on the Brewers before they heat up.
 
 
 
 Tuesday’s Results
 
 
Los Angeles Dodgers: LOSS -100
The Dodgers could not get anything going versus Jhoulys Chacin.
 
New York Yankees: LOSS -100
 Rafael Soriano just jumped from “Not Ranked” to “Number ONE” on my all-time hate list. 
 
Los Angeles Angels: WIN +87
I’m a huge Weaver fan and it looks like the Angels may now be able to close out some games!
 
Daily Total: -113
 
Brian “Killboy” Kilpatrick is currently up +568 imaginary dollars in 2011.
 
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Betting always involves a level of risk and you should never bet more than you can afford to lose. No guarantees are given as to the amount you will make from betting. Any liability from following any information given is completely waived by 4thandhome.com, and you are to understand that you follow it completely at your own risk.

 

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2011 Fantasy Baseball “September Stars” Series: Brian Matusz

This week we take a look at our final “September Star”: Brian Matusz.

Matusz was a 2010 pre-season fantasy sleeper as he lit up the opposition in spring training. As most will point out, don’t place too much stock into March heroes. In his first full season, he compiled a line of 10-12/4.30/1.34/143 in 175+ innings for the Orioles. From August on, though, he looked every bit the ace many were hoping he’d become.

Let’s look at those final two months and decide if he is ready to turn in a full season of magic…

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2011 National League West Previews: Rockies

Today’s Focus: Colorado Rockies

2010 Record: 83-79, 3rd NL West

The Colorado Rockies started out slow again going 19-21 through May 19th. They were actually pretty up and down all year. Heading into the All-Star break, they won 8 of 10 but they lost 11 of 13 immediately after the break.The Rockies had a 31-51 record on the road last year while hitting .226 AVG. They were plagued by injuries which accumulated to 833 days on the DL forcing Jim Tracy to use 135 different lineups.  They didn’t even think putting Carlos Gonzalez in the 3 hole was a good idea until late June! For the Rockies to be successful in 2010, they have got to figure out how to win early in the year and on the road.  Read more of this post