Killin’ the Odds & the Regular Season

Welcome back to Killin’ the Odds & the Regular Season! In the “Today’s Games” section, you will see my picks to win for the day. I will post either the “Money Line” or the “Run Line”. The money line is always a “straight up” bet which means your team will never need to win or lose by a specific amount of runs. The money line odds represent what amount has to be wagered or what can be won. For example, if there is a minus sign (-) next to an amount, you have to wager that amount to win 100. If there is a plus sign (+) next to an amount, you will receive that amount for every 100 wagered. When you see a “Run Line”, that means a spread is involved. In Baseball, the spread is always 1.5 runs but you can find alternate run lines on some websites. When I post a run line of -1.5, that means our team must win by two runs. When you see a run line of +1.5, that means our team can lose by one run and still win the wager. Listen to our show from April 5th, 2011 for more explanation and tips.

Fantasy MLB Spot Starting: 06.15.11

Welcome back to Spot Starting.  Well, all good things must come to an end, and our streak of 10 consecutive wins ended after over 5 weeks and 18 picks.  Ironically the loss goes to Bud Norris who was the last pick to lose, but on the bright side – he put up a tremendous line that should win 99% of the time.

For games on Thursday June 16th these selected pitchers might be had in your league (less than 50% owned in Yahoo! or ESPN) with percent owned Yahoo/ESPN, (team), and opponent:

Javier Vazquez 25% /  2% (FLA) @ PHL

Jeremy Guthrie 20% / 8% (BAL) @ TOR

Mark Buehrle 19% / 15% (CWS) @ MIN

R.A. Dickey 13% / 6% (NYM) @ ATL

Nick Blackburn 9% / 4% (MIN) vs. CWS

John Lannan 4% / 5% (WAS) vs. StL

Jordan Lyles 4% / 2% (HOU) vs. PIT

Mike Minor 3% / 1% (ATL) vs. NYM

Weekly Minor League Recap

AAA:

–Jesus Montero, NYY, C, Scranton Wilkes-Barre Yankees (#3): Montero has seen his batting average drop below .300 (.294) for the first time this year, but added another HR last week.  His K/BB ratio is about 5:1, and he is only getting on base around 34% of the time.  However, this could just be a matter of Montero getting antsy to move on the next level, now that he has proven his worth in the minors for over 4 years.

–Brett Lawrie, TOR, 2b/3b, Vegas 51s (#40): The Lawrie call up was supposed to be last weekend, but it was derailed by a minor wrist injury, which put him on the 7 day DL as of June 1.  Once that heals up, be ready to add the youngster.

–Adrian Cardenas, OAK, DH, Sacramento River Cats (unranked): Cardenas has fallen off recently: .189/.286/.189 in his last ten.  Could be a victim of BABIP luck, as he only struck out 3 times in his last 37 ABs.  Cardenas is the full time DH now for Sacramento, which hurts his chances of getting called up.

–Jemille Weeks, OAK, 2b, Sacramento River Cats (unranked): Weeks, the younger brother of MLB’er Rickie, has had a great season so far, and could be called up before Cardenas because he offers a better glove.  At .324/.419/.453, with 8 steals, 28 BBs and 31 Ks, he offers speed and patience, with a bit of pop as well.  A decent middle infield option in deep leagues if/when he gets promoted.

Weekly Minor League Recap

AAA:

–Jesus Montero, NYY, C, Scranton Wilkes-Barre Yankees (#3): Montero is starting to level off now, having gone .214/.267/.333 in his last ten.  Also, Jorge Posada has been hitting somewhat better in the Bronx (and he has an understandably long leash, given his iconic status) so right now, there really isn’t a place for Jesus there.  Stay tuned, but it is looking more and more as though a substantial impact in 2011 will have to wait until September.  Pre-season rookie of the year candidacy predictions were a bit premature.

–Brett Lawrie, TOR, 2b/3b, Vegas 51s (#40): Lawrie continues to put up astounding numbers in the PCL (.405/.458/.857) and a call up – even with the questionable defense – could be days away.  All but the shallowest leagues can wait on him, but all others should make the move accordingly when he does get the call.  Only red flags: 40 Ks in 49 games compared to only 17 BBs, and, of course, that sub-par D, which could cause him to sit a couple of times a week/late in games.

Weekly Minor League Recap

AAA:

–Jesus Montero, NYY, C, Scranton Wilkes-Barre Yankees (#3): Montero is still mouldering away at SWB, mainly because the Yankees do not have a regular place for him to play every day, except for possibly DH.  They don’t want to have the kid start his career just batting, and so we must wait (Insert Second Coming joke here).  His average has dropped to .315, but he is showing more power of late, hitting 2 HR and 3 doubles in his last ten.  His walk/k ratio still sucks though (8/31).

–Brett Lawrie, TOR, 2b/3b, Vegas 51s (#40): Lawrie is back to hitting for average to go along with his prodigious power.  He is at .375/.490/.800 with 4 HRs, 13 RBIs, 9 BBs, and 7 Ks over his last ten.  He already has more HRs this year (11) than last year (8) in 92 fewer games.  But blah blah blah his glove is nonexistent blah blah blah.

–Adrian Cardenas, OAK, DH/2b, Sacramento River Cats (unranked): The beat goes on for Cardenas average wise, as he hit .411 over his last ten.  He also showed some power, slugging .618 (though just one hit went over the fence).  Still getting on base over 40% of the time.

–Brandon Guyer, TB, OF, Durham Bulls (unranked): Guyer is at .176/.300/.206 over his past ten.  Looking more and more like the HR in his major league debut was a giant fluke

-Yonder Alonso, CIN, OF, Louisville Bats (#73): Alonso is rolling along at .375/.468/.550 in his last ten.  More importantly, he had 7 walks to 4 strikeouts; patience increases call up potential IMO.