Tag Archives: Josh Tomlin

The Casual Sabermetrician – First Half 2011 analysis

Welcome back to the Casual Sabermetrician.  It’s July, Summer is in full swing, and we’re at the half way point of the season.  We again look back on our pre-season exercise  and First Quarter Analysis of looking at tERA vs. ERA to find out which pitchers are pitching above their heads and which have been unlucky so far.  For fantasy purposes this translates to who we can sell high on and conversely who we might be able to buy low on.

Again, our method involves extracting tERA and ERA stats from Fangraphs into a spreadsheet and creating a formula to view tERA-ERA.  We can also look and see if the guys we looked at 7 weeks ago have regressed to the mean or not.
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Killin’ the Odds & the Regular Season

Welcome back to Killin’ the Odds & the Regular Season! In the “Today’s Games” section, you will see my picks to win for the day. I will post either the “Money Line” or the “Run Line”. The money line is always a “straight up” bet which means your team will never need to win or lose by a specific amount of runs. The money line odds represent what amount has to be wagered or what can be won. For example, if there is a minus sign (-) next to an amount, you have to wager that amount to win 100. If there is a plus sign (+) next to an amount, you will receive that amount for every 100 wagered. When you see a “Run Line”, that means a spread is involved. In Baseball, the spread is always 1.5 runs but you can find alternate run lines on some websites. When I post a run line of -1.5, that means our team must win by two runs. When you see a run line of +1.5, that means our team can lose by one run and still win the wager. Listen to our show from April 5th, 2011 for more explanation and tips.

The Casual Sabermetrician – First Quarter 2011 analysis

Welcome back to the Casual Sabermetrician.  It’s hard to believe, but after this weekend we’ll be at the Quarter poll of the season with all teams playing around 40 games and most (healthy) starting pitchers having made 8 starts out of their 32-33 for the year.  This affords us a great excuse to look back on our pre-season exercise of looking at tERA vs. ERA to find out which pitchers are pitching above their heads and which have been unlucky so far.  For fantasy purposes this translates to who we can sell high on and conversely who we might be able to buy low on.

Again, our method involves extracting tERA and ERA stats from Fangraphs into a spreadsheet and creating a formula to view tERA-ERA.  They already have this for ERA-FIP, I would imagine them adding ERA-xFIP and ERA-tERA in the near future as I believe these are a much more telling stat when evaluating who is do for regression.
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2011 Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire Gems: American League

Ok, I’ll admit it. I have at least 1 guy on my team that I drafted that hasn’t panned out. Now what, you ask? Now I show my waiver wire genius, that’s what.

Darren Oliver, RP Texas Rangers (20% owned in Yahoo, 22% ESPN)

Current Stat Line – 1 W / 2 L / 2 SV / 8 K / 2.38 ERA / 0.97 WHIP

Oliver has proven himself to be the man in Texas until Feliz returns. That will be soon, but if you are hurting for saves, Oliver would appear to be your guy in Texas for the short-term already converting his first 2 opportunities.

Projection: 3 W/ 3 L / 5 SV / 65 K / 2.58 ERA / 1.12 WHIP

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Fantasy MLB Spot Starting: 04.29.11

In writing this article, I find most enjoyment in my Deep League Special pick.  It’s what we fantasy baseball geeks really love, digging deep for the sleeper, the high upside.  Last night, my sleeper pick, Bartolo Colon was the toast of baseball as he dazzled the White Sox over 8 very strong innings picking up his second straight win.  Tons of guys on the waiver wire to be had for Friday’s starts, grab one to help you win your match up or pad your stats.

For games on Friday April 29th these selected pitchers might be had in your league (less than 50% owned in Yahoo! or ESPN) with percent owned Yahoo/ESPN, (team), and opponent:

Javier Vazquez 34% / 4% (FLA) @ CIN

Scott Baker 33% / 25% (MIN) @ KC (Start was pushed back from Thursday)

Clayton Richard 28% / 4% (SD) @ LAD

Travis Wood 27% / 51% (CIN) vs. FLA

Kevin Correia 23% / 24% (PIT) @ COL

Daisuke Matsuzaka 22% / 16% (BOS) vs. SEA

Bruce Chen 15% / 17% (KC) vs. MIN

Freddy Garcia 11% / 12% (NYY) vs. TOR

Mike Pelfrey 7% / 1% (NYM) @ PHL

Joe Blanton 4% / 2% (PHL) vs. NYM

Jason Marquis 3% / 3% (WAS) vs. SF

Jake Arrieta 2% / 1% (BAL) @ CWS

Armando Galarrago 2% / 2% (ARI) vs. CHC

My Pick: Daisuke Matsuzaka vs. Mariners

Yesterday’s Pick (pushed up to today): Scott Baker @ Royals

Deep League Special: Freddy Garcia vs. Jays

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Fantasy MLB Spot Starting: 04.27.11

The pickings were slim yesterday and yet another great start was made by a pitcher on absolutely no one’s radar as Phil Humber pitched a gem against the Yankees taking a no hitter into the 7th inning.  Humber is owned in 1% of Yahoo! leagues and a slim 0.1% of ESPN (basically his dad owns him).  You just never know when a great start will come out of nowhere, but we can look at the match ups and stats and continue to do our best.

For games on Wednesday April 27th these selected pitchers might be had in your league (less than 50% owned in Yahoo! or ESPN) with percent owned Yahoo/ESPN, (team), and opponent:

Derek Holland 34% / 23% (TEX) vs. TOR

Anibal Sanchez 33% / 40% (FLA) vs. LAD

Jeremy Guthrie 33% / 17% (BAL) vs. BOS

Josh Tomlin 26% / 27% (CLE) vs. KC

R.A. Dickey 20% / 5% (NYM) vs. WAS

Mark Buehrle 15% / 10% (CWS) @ NYY

Bartolo Colon 8% / 3% (NYY) vs. CWS

Sam LeCure 4% / 3% (CIN) @ MIL

My Pick: Anibal Sanchez vs. Dodgers

Alternate: Josh Tomlin vs. Royals

Deep League Special: Bartolo Colon vs. White Sox


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2011 Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire Gems: American League

So your draft really wasn’t as good as you thought it was when you walked out of the war room?? Well here are some names that can help you save face.

Jed Lowrie, SS/2B Boston Red Sox (64% owned in Yahoo, 82% ESPN)

Current Stat Line – .432 AVG / 10 R / 3 HR / 12 RBI / 0 SB

In the better late than never category falls Jed Lowrie. He is highly owned at this point, but if he’s not in your league, grab him while the gettin is good. We mentioned Lowrie on the 4th and home show on Tuesday and his ownership has been booming. Could be a great plug-in as long as he can stay healthy.

Projection: .280 AVG / 70 R / 18 HR / 65 RBI / 1 SB

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