04.09.11 Box Score Breakdown: Fantasy MLB News and Notes

A full slate of great games on the second Saturday of the season including a Doubleheader in Baltimore and a suspended game in San Diego. Kudos to the schedule makers for all the great divisional rivalries right off the bat – none better than Yankees-Red Sox which always has a playoff atmosphere and tons of fantasy implications. The Red Sox were desperate to build on Friday’s first win, but it was not to be as the Yanks prevailed 9-4. Not to be outdone, the Phillies hot bats picked right back up after Friday’s loss to crush their chief rival Braves 10-2. The Rangers were blanked in the opener by the O’s but then turned around and spanked them in the night cap 13-1. And then we had A’s at Twins – wow, what a slug fest as the A’s prevail 1-0 behind Gio. Neither of these teams can hit their way out of a wet paper bag. The Rays nightmare April continues as they dropped to 1-7 reminiscent of their pre-2008 dominance. The Giants Miguel Tejada walked off on the Cardinals to turn a 2-1 deficit into a 3-2 win.

Killboy’s 2011 MLB Predictions

No real surprises here. I like the Rays to fall off and the White Sox to win the Central. The Brewers will knock off the Reds but the Reds will still beat out the Dodgers and Braves for the Wild Card. I think the loss of Bobby Cox will hurt the Braves.

2011 National League West Previews: Diamondbacks

Today’s Focus: Arizona Diamondbacks

2010 Record: 65-97

The Diamondbacks offense was literally hit or miss last year. They were 3rd in the NL in home runs but also broke the MLB all-time strikeout record. Some of this can be blamed on Mark Reynolds but the team still strikes out way too much. The players who stuck out at least 23% of the time with a minimum of 200 PA are; Kelly Johnson (25.3%), Chris Young (24.8%), Adam LaRoche (30.7%), Mark Reynolds (42.3%), Justin Upton (30.7%), Miguel Montero (23.9%), Chris Snyder (31.3%), Rusty Ryal (32.4%) and Tony Abreu (24.4%). Justin Upton is a bounce back candidate and I think Chris Young is a lock for 25/25. I’m not sure how well Russell Branyan plays in an NL lineup and Melvin Mora is showing his age.

2011 Fantasy Baseball Sleeper: Derrek Lee

Derrek Lee had a down year in 2010. Lee’s 19 home runs marked his lowest total since 1998 (min. 250 PA). His 80 runs were his lowest total since 2000. His 80 RBI were his lowest total since 2001.

I suppose saying he had a “down year” is a bit of an understatement. From 2007-2009 Lee averaged 26 home runs, 92 runs, 94 RBI, .304 AVG and a .340 BABIP. So what gives?

A closer look at Derrek Lee’s peripherals suggests serious unluckiness. Lee’s 2010 BABIP of .309 is his lowest since 2004 and doesn’t match his .322 career mark. The huge dip in his BABIP doesn’t jive with his 22.5 percent line-drive rate and career-low 1.3 percent infield fly-ball rate. All of Lee’s other peripherals are fairly similar to his career.

The Orioles offense looks very strong for 2011. Lee will be batting third behind Brian Roberts and Nick Markakis who get on base at a decent clip. Vladimir Guerrero, Luke Scott and Mark Reynolds will be batting behind him. Lee is hitting in a much-improved lineup and looks to have the perfect setup. Derrek Lee will have boatloads of opportunities to score and drive in runs.

Camden Yards has a 126 home run index for right-handed hitters. Compare that to Turner Field (92) and Wrigley Field (102).

Derrek Lee’s current ADP is 273. He is being taken after Adam Lind (182.1), Adam LaRoche (182.6), Carlos Pena (197.3), Gabby Sanchez (210.9) and Ike Davis (228.9). Adam LaRoche put up the best line of the five listed with .261/75/25/100. Those numbers are certainly obtainable.

It’s no guarantee that Lee will outperform all these guys but, the value is certainly there. Why even waste a pick on Paul Konerko (70.8), Billy Butler (84.1) or Aubrey Huff (107.2) when you can draft Derrek Lee 140-185 picks later?

2011 Projection: .291 AVG, 85 R, 27 HR, 93 RBI, 1 SB

2011 Fantasy Baseball Rankings: THIRD BASE

Well, I’ve been called a lot of things but our 3B Fantasy Baseball Rankings have now earned me the taunting of being a Homer. Yes, I may be the only one ranking David Wright ahead of Evan Longoria this year, but my own projection system has them so close with a minimal edge given to Wright for 2011. I think their numbers will be similar with Wright getting a slight advantage in SBs. In a keeper, yes, Longoria is the clear #1. Let’s see where everyone else is ranked…

Longoria celebrates his 4th and Home Composite Rankings

RANK	PLAYER	Brian	Mike	Killboy	Jesse	Eric	COMP
1	Evan Longoria – TB	1	2	1	1	1	1.2
2	David Wright – NYM	2	1	3	2	2	2
3	Alex Rodriguez – NYY	4	5	2	3	3	3.4
4	Ryan Zimmerman – WAS	3	4	4	4	4	3.8
5	Kevin Youkilis – BOS	5	3	6	5	5	4.8
6	Jose Bautista – TOR	6	6	5	7	6	6
7	Adrian Beltre – TEX	7	9	7	6	7	7.2
8	Michael Young – TEX	9	12	8	10	8	9.4
9	Aramis Ramirez – CHC	8	13	9	8	12	10
10	Martin Prado – ATL	10	11	12	11	9	10.6
11	Pablo Sandoval – SF	14	8	13	9	11	11
12	Mark Reynolds – BAL	11	7	11	13	13	11
13	Casey McGehee – MIL	12	10	10	14	10	11.2
14	Pedro Alvarez – PIT	13	14	14	15	14	14
15	Scott Rolen – CIN	16	20	18	12	15	16.2
16	Ian Stewart – COL	–	15	15	16	16	16.6
17	Chris Johnson – HOU	17	18	–	17	17	18
18	Chone Figgins – SEA	15	–	16	–	19	18.4
19	Michael Cuddyer – MIN	–	16	19	–	18	19
20	Chase Headley – SD	–	19	17	–	–	19.8

 

PABLO SANDOVAL

Kung Fu Panda is coming off a disappointing season and it seems to given him motivation to get his act in gear this winter.  He’s lost 38 pounds and dropped his body fat percentage by over 10%.  The 5′-11″ third baseman is down to a svelte 240lbs.  He’s also spent some time working on his hitting with Barry Bonds.  Expect his numbers to be closer to his 2009 debut than to 2010’s let down. .305/70/20/80/5

CASEY McGEHEE

McGehee silenced his critics by following up his 2009 career year with a very solid 2010 campaign. McGehee finished 9th among fantasy 3B in 2010 while improving his strike out rate. Expect more of the same from McGehee in 2011 unless Ken Macha moves him to 2nd in the order. This move would hurt his RBI opportunities and slightly diminish his value, but right now I have him at .288/79/21/96/1.

SCOTT ROLEN

Rolen’s career peaked in ’04. 2005 was a lost season, ’06 a bounceback and since a poor ’07 he has steadily improved to fantasy respectability. Call it the career death rattle, but FanGraphs career paths show a consistent spike leading to the Age 37 season – Rolen will be 36 in 2011. Just be sure you milk his production early in the season and sell high as he always fades in the later months. Another season of .280/70/20/80/3 would not be a surprise and it could be higher.

SLEEPER: MARK REYNOLDS

If you listened to The 4th and Home Show this past Saturday, you heard me talk about the drop in home runs across the league. That will not change, so jump on HR before you have to start paying a premium for them via trade. In that O’s lineup, Reynolds will kill the ball – along with your average so make sure you have some .300 hitters on your team. Reynolds is currently being drafted as the 11th 3B off the board (much like the jokers here!) and that is way too late for a guy who has averaged 35HR and 14 SBs the past 3 seasons. I have Reynolds down for .240/85/35/95/10.

BUST: JOSE BAUTISTA

16, 15, 15, 13, 54…which of these numbers don’t belong? He’s a career .244 hitter that had never had more than 16 home runs in a season. Even with his swing adjustments, expect pitchers to figure him out this year and those power numbers to come back to Earth. I think we’re looking at an upside of low 30’s in homers. .250/85/30/95/5

2011 Fantasy Baseball Sleeper: Luke Scott

Why all the hate on Luke Scott?

All of his 2010 stats are in-line with his career numbers, he has improved every year with the Orioles, he finished the 2010 fantasy season with a 115 ranking and he is only 32 years old. 

Yet for some reason, he still holds an ADP of 341 and a Yahoo ranking of 209. 

Let’s take a look at what he has done with his time in Baltimore:

Year	HR	BB%	ISO	OPS	wOBA	BABIP	LD%	HR/FB
2008	23	9.9%	.215	.807	.343	.280	17.1%	14%
2009	25	10.9%	.229	.828	.355	.283	17.1%	16.7%
2010	27	11.4%	.251	.902	.387	.304	18.8%	18.6%

 

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Every year he has improved while registering no more than 475 AB. Imagine what he would do with 550 AB in an upgraded lineup.

The spike in BABIP is actually in line with his career BABIP (.300) and can be justified by his increased LD percent.

Since Luke Scott is a left-handed hitter, he will be cemented in the five spot, splitting up Baltimore’s right-handed hitters.

The middle of the order should look like this:

• Three: Derrek Lee (R)
• Four: Vladimir Guerrero (R)
• Five: Luke Scott (L)
  
• Six: Mark Reynolds (R)
• Seven: Adam Jones (R)

This is great company if you ask me. He should get plenty of RBI opportunities and score plenty of runs.

Luke Scott is a very easy player to manage fantasy-wise. When he is hot, throw him in your UTIL spot and enjoy the ride. When he’s cold, spot start him versus right-handers, at home, at night or on grass.

See chart below:

Split	AB	HR	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
RHP	347	20	.297	.385	.550	.935
Home	228	19	.338	.419	.671	1.091
Night	322	20	.295	.378	.550	.928
Grass	397	24	.292	.369	.547	.916

 

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Luke Scott has always been an undrafted “wait and see” waiver wire type guy. Things will change after this year.

2011 Projection: 520 AB, .277 AVG, 29 HR, 85 RBI, 79 R, 2 SB

American League East Previews – Orioles

Today’s focus: Baltimore Orioles

To all the other teams in the American League East, having the Orioles in the division has made life much easier the last few years. Never a need to worry about being in the basement when you’ve got good old Baltimore to fill the cellar for you. The Orioles find themselves coming off three years in a row at the bottom of the pile and amazingly 13 losing seasons in a row.

Baltimore has stayed out of the free for all signings for the last several off seasons and focused on developing talent from within. Players such as Matt Wieters, Nick Markakis, Jake Arrieta and Brian Matuzs are considered high ceiling guys. This offseason however, they revamped the left side of their infield by bringing in JJ Hardy and Mark Reynolds, inserted a veteran presence into their rotation with Justin Duchscherer, added first baseman Derrek Lee and DH Vladimir Guerrero . Further development of their young pitchers, many of whom were at one time rated top prospects by Baseball America, and continued growth of their developing players should allow for an improved season. The addition of Buck Showalter as manager has reinvigorated this group and has them once again believing in their ability to win.

Notable Losses Include: Kevin Millwood, Julio Lugo, Ty Wigginton, Corey Patterson, David Hernandez, Matt Albers

Notable Pick Ups: Derrek Lee, JJ Hardy, Mark Reynolds, Kevin Gregg, Brendan Harris, Justin Duchscherer, Vladimir Guerrero

At this point the O’s have picked up some nice infield help, have a good/potentially very good young pitching staff, a solid clean up hitter with the addition of Vlad, and a positive outlook with Showalter at the helm. I’ll go out on a limb here and say this team breaks .500 and ends their streak of last place finishes in the division this season.