08.07.11 Box Score Breakdown: Fantasy MLB News and Notes

Welcome back to Box Score Breakdown.  Again today, I’ll be guesting for Mike.   Quite a weekend of baseball.  The Phillies took 3 of 4 from the Giants in an NLCS rematch/possible preview but had their win streak snapped at 9.  The Pirates continue to slide out of the playoff race as their losing streak reaches 10, what a nightmare.  The Yanks and Red Sox also gave us a taste of October with a great match up and great back drop to write this to.

4th and Home Player of the Day: Prince Fielder 3/4, 4 R, 2 RBI, HR, BB.  Prince gonna get paid.  .304/26/85.  Brewers 3 up on the Cards.

The Bats:
Albert Pujols – 2/4, 3 R, RBI, HR, BB…Homers in 3 of his last 4 games, now at 27 and batting .282.  Amazingly has re-entered MVP talk if he can get the Cardinals the Division title.

Matt Holliday – 2/4, 1 R, 3 RBI, BB…Along with Berkman, just an awesome 3,4,5 punch.  Back to back multi-hit games raises his avg to .318.  10 hits and 10 rbi this week.

Drew Stubbs – 2/3, 2 R, RBI, BB, HR, SB…BSFU!  Snaps out of a mini slump

Marlon Byrd – 3/3, R, 2 RBI, BB…Avg back up to .310 – but where is the power?  Cubs are just playing out the string – there’s always next year Chicago.

Logan Morrison – 1/4…Writing not about the 1/4 but to say, is this all?  Morrison is starting to become a real disappointment.  He’ll have quick short bursts of power then zzz through a week like this one.

Jason Heyward – 1/2, 2 R, 1 RBI, HR, BB…Speaking of disappointments…Heyward was benched for the last 2 games and responded by crushing a home run in his first AB.   He went on a tear to end 2010 and his graphs are trending that way again.

Jose Constanza – 2/3, 2 R, 2 RBI, HR, BB, SB…BSFU!  Has now hit in 8 of his first 9 MLB games including 7 in a row.  If you saw this coming from the 27 year old rookie, go you!  He also took out Met’s Daniel Murphy on a hard SB slide, possibly ending his season.

Dan Uggla – 1/5…Continues the ugliest (pun unintentional) hitting streak in recent memory.  Has raised his average 42 points….to .220!!

The Casual Sabermetrician – First Half 2011 analysis

Welcome back to the Casual Sabermetrician.  It’s July, Summer is in full swing, and we’re at the half way point of the season.  We again look back on our pre-season exercise  and First Quarter Analysis of looking at tERA vs. ERA to find out which pitchers are pitching above their heads and which have been unlucky so far.  For fantasy purposes this translates to who we can sell high on and conversely who we might be able to buy low on.

Again, our method involves extracting tERA and ERA stats from Fangraphs into a spreadsheet and creating a formula to view tERA-ERA.  We can also look and see if the guys we looked at 7 weeks ago have regressed to the mean or not.

Killin’ the Odds & the Regular Season

Welcome back to Killin’ the Odds & the Regular Season! In the “Today’s Games” section, you will see my picks to win for the day. I will post either the “Money Line” or the “Run Line”. The money line is always a “straight up” bet which means your team will never need to win or lose by a specific amount of runs. The money line odds represent what amount has to be wagered or what can be won. For example, if there is a minus sign (-) next to an amount, you have to wager that amount to win 100. If there is a plus sign (+) next to an amount, you will receive that amount for every 100 wagered. When you see a “Run Line”, that means a spread is involved. In Baseball, the spread is always 1.5 runs but you can find alternate run lines on some websites. When I post a run line of -1.5, that means our team must win by two runs. When you see a run line of +1.5, that means our team can lose by one run and still win the wager. Listen to our show from April 5th, 2011 for more explanation and tips.

05.25.11 Box Score Breakdown: Fantasy MLB News and Notes

Funerals are never fun and being out-of-town made it hard to keep you all up to date with my opinions on the daily box scores. So as I get back into it, drooling as Matt Joyce went yard AGAIN the other night, this is what I saw LAST night…

4th and Home Player of the Day: Wilson Valdez (PHI 2B) – 3/6…Decent game at the plate filling in for Chase Utley. But, he entered in the 19th to pick up the win as he pitched one inning of scoreless ball! Player of the Day!

The Bats:
Steve Pearce – 3/5, R, HR, 2 RBI…The once-touted Pirate prospect is seeing some time now that Pedro Alvarez is on the DL. Ship has sailed.

Dan Uggla – 0/5, 3 K…Now batting .180. Ouch. Actually…OUCH! Most of you had high hopes for him this year and this is not looking pretty.

Dustin Pedroia – 2/6, R, HR, 3 RBI…Guess he wasn’t too hurt.

Carl Crawford – 4/4, 3 R, HR, 2 RBI…Average sits at .229. He’s coming along, but maybe won’t be the No. 1 OF I expected pre-season.

Jarrod Saltalamacchia – 2/4, 2 R, HR, 3 RBI…I expcted better from him this year, but I think the Braves traded the correct backstop despite the “experts'” opinions on the matter.

Prince Fielder – 2/2, 4 RBI…Been a rough May, so maybe this gets him out of the funk.

05.15.11 Box Score Breakdown: Fantasy MLB News and Notes

A rough weekend to be a writer here at 4th and Home. I apologize if you waited patiently for a Breakdown and I did not deliver. Shame on me. I hope it never happens again.

Anyway, onto it…

4th and Home Player of the Day: Jose Bautista – 3/5, 3 R, 3 HR, 4 RBI…Ridiculous!!! Nothin’ else to say.

The Bats:
Lance Berkman – 2/4, 2 R, HR, RBI…There he is! First HR since May 5th. And you thought he reverted to Puma 2010…

Ramon Hernandez – 2/4, R, HR, RBI…Three HR in his last two games. Need a backstop?

Dan Uggla – 2/3, 3 R, HR, RBI…Hit the game winner off Doc Halladay. Maybe this gives him some confidence to hit another 30 this year before Brian pulls his hair out.

John Mayberry – 1/2, R, HR, 2 RBI, SB…Keeping it warm for the injured (again) DomBrown.

Matt Joyce – 2/3, 2 R, HR, RBI…Pick him up, YET? If it makes you feel better, yours truly owns him. Actually dropped Luke Scott for him. Feel better? Good, now pick him up.

04.28.11 Box Score Breakdown: Fantasy MLB News and Notes

Ok, so if it isn’t bad enough for Killboy that he owns Gallardo and Liriano, I was perusing match-ups tonight and came across his pitching for the night. I see Ryan Dempster’s ERA at 189.00 and WHIP at 24.00.
HOW IS THAT EVEN POSSIBLE?!?!!?
Shazam that has to be a record. I have never seen anything like that before in fantasy baseball. It’s the craziest thing I’ve seen since I had Clinton Portis go off for 200+ yards and 5 TDs! Mind-boggling.

Anyway, here’s what else I saw:

That's right, Jesse does love you.

The Bats:
Ben Zobrist – 7/10, 5 R, 2 HR, 10 RBI, SB…If you can believe it, Jesse did NOT have him on his bench. Simply one of the best fantasy game(s) you could ask for. He more than filled the box score in game one alone.

Ian Desmond – 2/4, 2 R, HR, RBI…New daddy belts a homer and raises his average to .220! Makin’ baby proud!

Elvis Andrus – 2/4, R, 3 SB…Now up to 7 SB and is on pace for 40+. Still, I was hoping for 50 this year. Andrus stinks.

Travis Snider – 1/4, K…Batting .184 this year will not cut it for the greatest team in baseball. It gets you sent to AAA.

04.27.11 Box Score Breakdown: Fantasy MLB News and Notes

The Bats:
Joey Votto – 2/4, R, HR, 4 RBI, 2 BB…Just another day at the ballpark.

Drew Stubbs – 2/5, 3 R, HR, RBI, BB…Walks up, Ks down and less streakiness for this “September Star”.

Jeff Francoeur – 2/4, R, HR, RBI…Frenchy continues to rake and the only noticeable change in his peripherals is that he’s hitting a lot more ground balls than ever before. Uhm, regression is coming.

2011 Fantasy Baseball Busts: David Price

At the young age of 25, David Price has already started in an All-Star game, pitched in the World Series and finished runner-up  in the 2010 Cy Young voting. In 2010, he posted a 2.72 ERA with 19 wins and 188 strikeouts in 208.2 innings. Those numbers look outstanding but, the numbers under the surface paint a different picture.

2011 Fantasy Baseball Rankings: STARTING PITCHERS

Leave it to Killboy to disagree who the No. 1 Starting Pitcher should be in drafts this year. While all of us were picking Roy Halladay, Killboy chose Tim Lincecum. I am not sure many of us here condone the use of a first round pick on a pitcher, but if you’re going to take one; Halladay is your guy. Doc recorded 21 wins in his first year with the Phillies to go along with a 2.44 ERA, a 1.04 WHIP and 219 K. A beautiful Cy Young season.

“The Year (after) the Pitcher” still shows a lot of high quality arms available pretty deep into the draft. I have been burned many times by pitching, so loading up in more shallow positions before grabbing a pitcher is my recommendation for 2011. Of course, if any of these studs fall – pounce!

Onto the Rankings…

RANK	PLAYER	Brian	Mike	Killboy	Jesse	Eric	COMP
1	Roy Halladay – PHI	1	1	2	1	1	1.2
2	Felix Hernandez – SEA	3	2	3	2	2	2.4
3	Tim Lincecum – SF	2	4	1	4	3	2.8
4	Cliff Lee – PHI	4	3	4	3	4	3.6
5	Jon Lester – BOS	6	8	5	12	5	7.2
6	Josh Johnson – FLA	8	9	11	7	6	8.2
7	Clayton Kershaw – LAD	9	5	6	17	7	8.8
8	CC Sabathia – NYY	7	12	9	6	11	9
9	Cole Hamels – PHI	13	10	7	5	14	9.8
10	Zack Greinke – MIL	5	11	16	8	10	10
11	Justin Verlander – DET	12	7	10	15	12	11.2
12	Ubaldo Jimenez – COL	10	15	14	14	8	12.2
13	Jered Weaver – LAA	17	13	8	10	16	12.8
14	David Price – TB	11	6	19	21	9	13.2
15	Mat Latos – SD	15	14	13	11	13	13.2
16	Tommy Hanson – ATL	21	16	18	19	15	17.8
17	Roy Oswalt – HOU	20	19	20	13	17	17.8
18	Francisco Liriano – MIN	16	18	12	26	19	18.2
19	Dan Haren – LAA	18	17	17	18	22	18.4
20	Matt Cain – SF	19	20	23	16	18	19.2
21	Chris Carpenter – STL	24	22	24	9	21	20
22	Max Scherzer – DET	22	23	21	25	20	22.2
23	Shaun Marcum – MIL	26	25	26	20	26	24.6
24	Yovani Gallardo – MIL	14	39	15	34	23	25
25	Brett Anderson – OAK	25	21	29	39	24	27.6
26	Ted Lilly – LAD	35	24	37	22	30	29.6
27	Daniel Hudson – ARI	34	26	30	24	35	29.8
28	Clay Buchholz – BOS	28	32	44	32	25	32.2
29	Tim Hudson – ATL	39	31	41	23	29	32.6
30	Hiroki Kuroda – LAD	37	34	25	29	38	32.6
31	Chad Billingsley – LAD	23	45	27	31	37	32.6
32	Wandy Rodriguez – HOU	27	42	32	28	48	35.4
33	Jonathan Sanchez – SF	40	38	34	35	31	35.6
34	Ryan Dempster – CHC	31	43	28	33	44	35.8
35	Ricky Nolasco – FLA	33	29	33	37	49	36.2
36	Colby Lewis – TEX	46	37	39	27	34	36.6
37	Madison Bumgarner – SF	36	33	42	40	41	38.4
38	John Danks – CHW	41	46	51	30	32	40
39	Brandon Morrow – TOR	29	40	35	59	40	40.6
40	Gio Gonzalez – OAK	30	30	38	78	28	40.8
41	Jeremy Hellickson – TB	43	27	40	57	51	43.6
42	Jhoulys Chacin – COL	47	41	49	44	39	44
43	Phil Hughes – NYY	42	54	47	36	42	44.2
44	Josh Beckett – BOS	38	50	22	71	43	44.8
45	Trevor Cahill – OAK	59	36	59	45	27	45.2
46	Jaime Garcia – STL	52	35	65	42	33	45.4
47	Edinson Volquez – CIN	44	28	55	56	52	47
48	Ricky Romero – TOR	32	69	43	54	47	49
49	Brett Myers – HOU	55	48	54	55	36	49.6
50	Matt Garza – CHC	49	62	52	41	46	50
51	C.J. Wilson – TEX	63	44	66	38	45	51.2
52	Ian Kennedy – ARI	54	51	56	43	53	51.4
53	Gavin Floyd – CHW	61	63	31	52	56	52.6
54	Scott Baker – MIN	64	59	57	46	54	56
55	Jorge De La Rosa – COL	45	74	45	68	59	58.2
56	Edwin Jackson – CHW	67	49	63	50	65	58.8
57	Jake Peavy – CHW	76	68	36	49	76	61
58	Johnny Cueto – CIN	60	67	58	64	57	61.2
59	Ervin Santana – LAA	56	57	72	73	50	61.6
60	James Shields – TB	57	60	48	62	–	61.6
61	Jordan Zimmermann – WAS	51	66	53	75	63	61.6
62	Carlos Zambrano – CHC	50	55	71	77	58	62.2
63	Jair Jurrjens – ATL	65	56	79	51	64	63
64	Travis Wood – CIN	–	47	–	47	62	63.6
65	Anibal Sanchez – FLA	73	53	70	70	55	64.2
66	Brian Matusz – BAL	48	61	50	–	–	64.2
67	Javier Vazquez – FLA	53	–	46	74	73	65.4
68	Bronson Arroyo – CIN	71	79	69	53	61	66.6
69	John Lackey – BOS	75	64	64	65	71	67.8
70	Carl Pavano – MIN	66	80	67	61	69	68.6
71	A.J. Burnett – NYY	58	65	60	–	–	69
72	Derek Holland – TEX	70	58	62	–	75	69.2
73	Dallas Braden – OAK	–	77	–	48	67	70.8
74	Brett Cecil – TOR	69	–	76	–	60	73.4
75	Johan Santana – NYM	78	–	–	60	72	74.4
76	Erik Bedard – SEA	–	52	–	–	–	75.2
77	Clayton Richard – SD	79	71	78	–	68	75.4
78	Brandon Webb – TEX	77	–	61	79	–	75.8
79	Jonathon Niese – NYM	68	–	80	–	70	76
80	Joel Pineiro – LAA	–	–	–	58	–	76.4

TOMMY HANSON…Hanson stumbled last year with his ERA climbing from 2.89 in ’09 to 3.33 in ’10, but he  did improve his walks going from 3.24/9 in ’09 to an impressive 2.49/9 in ’10. If you focus on the 2nd half, he sizzled with a 2.51 ERA and 0.98 WHIP. At only 24 years old and with Hudson and Lowe around to keep the #1 starter pressure off of him, expect to see Hanson continue to blossom this year. 15-9/3.25/1.17/200

SHAUN MARCUM…The Marcum trade was probably the most under rated move of the entire off season.  Marcum doesn’t overpower hitters, but has great command and one of the best changeups in the game that he misses bats with it. His GB/FB/LD splits are as consistent as can be but he has been able to bring his HR/FB rate way down along with his BB/9.  Shaun might be the only guy Bill James isn’t bullish on this year but I love Marcum coming over to the NL and he is a steal with an ADP of 27 SP (103 overall).  13-8/3.60/1.15/158

JEREMY HELLICKSON…”Hellboy” is currently going off the board as the #41 SP, which is where he’s ranked in our composite. I can understand the reservations, but here is why you need to grab him before that: he dominated in the minors to the tune of a 2.71 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, and 9.8 K/9 over 580 IP. He has MLB “stuff”, including two great breaking pitches, and he showcased that last season when he got four spot starts. As a matter of fact, the Rays dealt Matt Garza just so Hellickson would have a rotation spot in 2011. With the ability to keep the ball low in the zone and the great defense behind him, there is no reason he can’t keep his ERA and WHIP low with high K totals even if he is limited to about 180 innings this year. 14-10/3.40/1.15/185

SLEEPER: GIO GONZALEZ…In his first full season as a starter for the A’s, Gonzalez put ups some impressive stats; 15 wins, 3.23 ERA, and 171 K’s.  He especially turned it on after the All Star break when he shaved a point off his first pre-break ERA, lowered his WHIP, and increased his K/9.  The 25 year old could be in line for an excellent season with monster K’s (his minor league K/9 is 10.3 and he’s already struck out 10 batters in 5 innings of pre-season work). 16-8/3.30/1.26/200

BUST: TREVOR CAHILL…Cahill finished 2010 with 18 wins and a 2.97 ERA. He also sported a poor 5.4 K/9 and a ridiculous .236 BABIP. I’m not sure how the Baseball Gods missed this one. Expect regression. 12-10/3.96/1.24/129

2011 MLB Spring Training Review: Week of February 27th

SPRING TRAINING QUICK HITS

There is still talk of Francisco Liriano being dealt to the Yankees within the next two weeks. Still not sure how this makes sense for Minnesota, but they’re not exactly doing anything to dispel the reports…Fausto Carmona has rightfully been named the Indians’ 2011 Opening Day starter, this after winning 13 games last year with a 3.77 ERA…Destined for the bullpen, Aroldis Chapman continues to electrify starting off the spring with 4K in 2 IP. And he’s also walked three…Just when it appeared time to worry about Domonic Brown‘s spring struggles, we now get to worry an additional 4-6 weeks as he fractured his hamate bone. Remember Ryan Zimmerman fractured the same one and it sapped his power for some time. Ben Francisco now has a great opportunity to do something with this opportunity…