Tag Archives: Max Scherzer

Killin’ the Odds & the Regular Season

Welcome back to Killin’ the Odds & the Regular Season! In the “Today’s Games” section, you will see my picks to win for the day. I will post either the “Money Line” or the “Run Line”. The money line is always a “straight up” bet which means your team will never need to win or lose by a specific amount of runs. The money line odds represent what amount has to be wagered or what can be won. For example, if there is a minus sign (-) next to an amount, you have to wager that amount to win 100. If there is a plus sign (+) next to an amount, you will receive that amount for every 100 wagered. When you see a “Run Line”, that means a spread is involved. In Baseball, the spread is always 1.5 runs but you can find alternate run lines on some websites. When I post a run line of -1.5, that means our team must win by two runs. When you see a run line of +1.5, that means our team can lose by one run and still win the wager. Listen to our show from April 5th, 2011 for more explanation and tips.
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The Casual Sabermetrician – First Half 2011 analysis

Welcome back to the Casual Sabermetrician.  It’s July, Summer is in full swing, and we’re at the half way point of the season.  We again look back on our pre-season exercise  and First Quarter Analysis of looking at tERA vs. ERA to find out which pitchers are pitching above their heads and which have been unlucky so far.  For fantasy purposes this translates to who we can sell high on and conversely who we might be able to buy low on.

Again, our method involves extracting tERA and ERA stats from Fangraphs into a spreadsheet and creating a formula to view tERA-ERA.  We can also look and see if the guys we looked at 7 weeks ago have regressed to the mean or not.
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Killin’ the Odds & the Regular Season

Welcome back to Killin’ the Odds & the Regular Season! In the “Today’s Games” section, you will see my picks to win for the day. I will post either the “Money Line” or the “Run Line”. The money line is always a “straight up” bet which means your team will never need to win or lose by a specific amount of runs. The money line odds represent what amount has to be wagered or what can be won. For example, if there is a minus sign (-) next to an amount, you have to wager that amount to win 100. If there is a plus sign (+) next to an amount, you will receive that amount for every 100 wagered. When you see a “Run Line”, that means a spread is involved. In Baseball, the spread is always 1.5 runs but you can find alternate run lines on some websites. When I post a run line of -1.5, that means our team must win by two runs. When you see a run line of +1.5, that means our team can lose by one run and still win the wager. Listen to our show from April 5th, 2011 for more explanation and tips.

Killin’ the Odds & the Regular Season

Welcome back to Killin’ the Odds & the Regular Season! In the “Today’s Games” section, you will see my picks to win for the day. I will post either the “Money Line” or the “Run Line”. The money line is always a “straight up” bet which means your team will never need to win or lose by a specific amount of runs. The money line odds represent what amount has to be wagered or what can be won. For example, if there is a minus sign (-) next to an amount, you have to wager that amount to win 100. If there is a plus sign (+) next to an amount, you will receive that amount for every 100 wagered. When you see a “Run Line”, that means a spread is involved. In Baseball, the spread is always 1.5 runs but you can find alternate run lines on some websites. When I post a run line of -1.5, that means our team must win by two runs. When you see a run line of +1.5, that means our team can lose by one run and still win the wager. Listen to our show from April 5th, 2011 for more explanation and tips.

05.16.11 Box Score Breakdown: Fantasy MLB News and Notes

Great night in baseball as I had Tommy Hanson and Colby Lewis put Jesse into an early pitching hole on the first day of the week. Nice!

Anyway, onto it…

4th and Home Player of the Day:Vin Mazzaro – 2.1 IP, 11 H, 14 ER, 2:3…Who else could it be? This is right out of a video game. His ERA ballooned from 4.50 to 22.74 after this one!

The Bats:
Matt Downs
– 2/3, R, HR, 2 RBI…Just about the only guy that could hit Hanson in this one.

Adrian Gonzalez – 3/5, R, 3 RBI…Guy keeps smoking the ball. Up to 37 RBI now to lead the majors.

Carlos Pena – 2/4, 2 R, HR, 2 RBI…Just a bad year. With each decent game you think a hot streak is coming and then an 0-4. Let’s see how he does tomorrow.

Michael Brantley – 2/4, 2 R, HR, 4 RBI…Right after Killboy and I touted him to hit lead-off more often, he has a career game. Yes, MB should be the Tribe’s lead-off hitter from here on out. Oh and pick this guy up.

Asdrubal Cabrera – 2/6, 3 R, RBI, 2 SB…Very nice season from AsCab. He even has 5 steals this year.

Matt LaPorta – 4/4, R, 4 RBI…Yes, he’s still alive.

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Killin’ the Odds & the Regular Season

Welcome back to Killin’ the Odds & the Regular Season! In the “Today’s Games” section, you will see my picks to win for the day. I will post either the “Money Line” or the “Run Line”. The money line is always a “straight up” bet which means your team will never need to win or lose by a specific amount of runs. The money line odds represent what amount has to be wagered or what can be won. For example, if there is a minus sign (-) next to an amount, you have to wager that amount to win 100. If there is a plus sign (+) next to an amount, you will receive that amount for every 100 wagered. When you see a “Run Line”, that means a spread is involved. In Baseball, the spread is always 1.5 runs but you can find alternate run lines on some websites. When I post a run line of -1.5, that means our team must win by two runs. When you see a run line of +1.5, that means our team can lose by one run and still win the wager. Listen to our show from April 5th, 2011 for more explanation and tips.

Today’s Games (5/9/11)
  
Detroit Tigers (+102) @ Toronto Blue Jays (-112) My Pick: Blue Jays Money Line
I’m a huge fan of Max Scherzer but he hasn’t been that great on the road (6.62 ERA, 1.81 WHIP) and the current Blue Jays lineup has hit him well (.306 AVG, Bautista HR). The Tigers have been on a roll in their last 6 but taking them on the road against a big time right-hander is a recipe for disaster.
Results from 5/7/11

Kansas City Royals (even): WIN +100
Lovin’ the Royals right now!


Daily Total: +100
*Any information provided by our site is for educational, informational and entertainment purposes ONLY. Use caution if you use our products and / or services and remember that all gambling carries risk and no liability is taken by 4thandHome.com.
Betting always involves a level of risk and you should never bet more than you can afford to lose. No guarantees are given as to the amount you will make from betting. Any liability from following any information given is completely waived by 4thandHome.com, and you are to understand that you follow it completely at your own risk.

Disagree? Light me up in the comments.

05.04.11 Box Score Breakdown: Fantasy MLB News and Notes

A night after we saw Francisco Liriano toss a no-hitter, Tim Hudson…..tossed a one-hitter. Oh, what a letdown. Still a great game that saw him face two over the minimum. Very underrated pitcher these days.

Anyway, here’s what else I saw:

The Bats:
Alex Rios
– 3/4, R, HR, RBI…3 HR in his last 5 games. Just needed the weather to warm up. He’ll be fine.

Adam Lind – 4/4, R, HR, 2 RBI…Must think it’s 2009, because 2010 is a distant memory…in the future or something if that makes sense.

Martin Prado – 4/10, 2 R, 4 RBI…Slowly making his way back to respectability.

Nate McLouth – 5/5, 4 R, HR, 2 RBI, 3 BB…Heyward better watch it. Nate wants to get back in that two-hole. Damn that was gross.

Brad Hawpe – 2/3, R, HR, 2 RBI, BB…Meh!

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04.24.11 Box Score Breakdown: Fantasy MLB News and Notes

Josh Johnson – 7 IP, 3 H, ER, 6:3…Typical JJ. 13 hits now given up in 34 innings. That is ridiculous.

Ubaldo Jimenez – 5 IP, H, 3 ER, 7:4…He’s coming around and once he’s shaken off the rust he’s going to be dynamite. Buy low if you can

Max Scherzer – 8 IP, 4 H, 7:3…You missed your opportunity to buy low on this SP.

John Danks – 6 IP, 9 H, 3 ER, 8:2…Another fine start from Danks, but finds himself at (0-3).

David Wright – 2/4, 3 R, 2 HR, 4 RBI, BB, SB…Wright did everything in this one as he is really starting to heat up.

James Shields – SHO, 4 H, 7:2…Yes, it was the BJays but it was on the road where Shields has not been good in his career. That makes him (2-1) with a 2.35 ERA and 0.97 WHIP.

Ben Zobrist – 2/4, R, HR, 2 RBI, SB…B2B games now with a HR as he lifted his average over .200. Good job, Benny!

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04.03.11 Box Score Breakdown: Fantasy MLB News and Notes

Ian Kinsler, Nelson Cruz, and Mark Teixeira all went yard again. That makes 3 in 3 games for each of them.

Miguel Cabrera, Jorge Posada, Howie Kendrick (3 in 4 games) and sleeper catcher Ryan Hanigan each belted two home runs.

Brennan Boesch went 4-4 with a HR and 4 RBI.

Max Scherzer and Phil Hughes both looked terrible giving up 6 home runs between them. Better days are ahead for Scherzer, but Hughes’ velocity was down. Monitor him.

Matt Harrison shut the Sawx down, striking out 8 over 7 innings allowing 7 base runners and one run.

Javier Vazquez, welcome to the American Lea….wait a tick. Ok, so league matters no more to Vazquez. His velocity scared me off in the pre-season, so I wouldn’t go near him in drafts and now it’s still around where he was for the Yanks. Owners be scared. Vazquez was lit up by the AAAA Mets lineup, serving up 2 homers and 5 walks in 2.1 innings.

R.A. Dickey shut down the Fish over 6 innings, allowing 8 base runners and striking out 7.

The ChiSox offered John Danks no run support as he lost to the Tribe. Turned in a great outing nonetheless, giving up just 2 runs on 6 hits while K-ing 8.

Tim Hudson shut the Nats down going 7 strong allowing only 3 hits while striking out 5.

Roy Oswalt beat his old team striking out 6, allowing 2 runs on 5 hits.

Ryan Howard stayed hot going 3-5 with a home run and 4 RBI.

Rookie Zach Britton was great in his first MLB start for the O’s, striking out 6 Rays in 6 innings and giving up just 1 run on 3 hits. Speculative grab!

Jaime Garcia was masterful against the Padres, shutting them out and allowing just 6 base runners while striking out 9. I do not think this will be the norm, but if you have him you’ll take it.

Starlin Castro went 3-4 and is now hitting .615. He will hit .300, but he needs more counting stats to be elite.

Bobby Abreu reached base SEVEN times, going 5-5 with 2 BB and a HR. Wow. Didn’t think the old man had it in ’em!

Gio Gonzalez shut the M’s down, although he did allow 6 hits and 4 walks in 7 innings. Is it possible he finishes 2011 with an ERA lower than his WHIP?

EDIT…

Disbaled List: Evan Longoria, Jair Jurrjens, and Brian Matusz were all placed on the 15-day DL. Longoria will be out three weeks with a strained oblique. Matusz will be sidelined at LEAST three weeks, maybe six, with a strained intercostal muscle. Jurrjens (side) was also placed on the 15-day DL, but is expected to make his debut on April 16th.

Killin’ the Odds & the Regular Season

4/3/11

Detroit Tigers (+152) @ New York Yankees (-162) My Pick: Tigers Straight Up

The Tigers put up 6 runs versus the Yanks’ yesterday. I think Max Scherzer is for real. He has faced the Yankees only once in Yankee Stadium and he two-hit them. We are getting a great value at +152. If you want to play it safe go with the run line at -145.

 

Chicago White Sox (-123) @ Cleveland Indians (+113) My Pick: White Sox Straight Up

Are you kidding me? When I woke up this morning, I was sure I would see the White Sox at -175. How are the Indians getting any action at +113?

 

Milwaukee Brewers (+115) @ Cincinnati Reds (-125) My Pick: Brewers Straight Up

With the Brewers being down two games, I expected better odds than +115 but this series has been evenly matched. Bronson Arroyo has been a slow starter for the past few years so keep an eye on the lines for his April starts.

 

Yesterday’s Results

 Minnesota Twins: LOSS -100

I’m done with the Twins for now…

Texas Rangers: WIN +87

WOW! We should have taken the Run Line at +165

White Sox: WIN +80

Too easy.

 

Disagree? Light me up in the comments.

Brian “Killboy” Kilpatrick is currently up +729 imaginary dollars in 2011.