Tag Archives: Mike Aviles

July 2011 “September Star” Review

Don’t want to get ahead of ourselves, but this whole September stuff? We could be onto something here…

It’s time to buy, sell or hold (or monitor) my “September Stars”.

Drew Stubbs
My Projection:
 .255/90/25/75/30

Drew Stubbs through July:
.257/72/13/36/26

Drew Stubbs extrapolated 2011:
.257/108/20/54/39

Research Concern: BABIP
The BABIP dropped in July (.354), but not as much as you might think considering his less-than-stellar counting stat output.

Conclusion: July was a month where he didn’t perform and he pretty much followed his team down that path. As the Reds go, so does Drew. His numbers were decent. He had his highest BB rate and his lowest K rate of the season. His ISO (.096) was pretty low, which could be attributed to his higher than normal GB rate (53%). All in all, guys not getting on base in front of him hurt.

Buy, Sell or Hold? HOLD

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June 2011 “September Star” Review

Ok, I am getting back on track here. Some interesting developments with our “Stars”. Listen, we can’t get them all right, but the approach will shine light on some potential bargains and studs as you head into your draft each year. I’ve laid the foundation and showed you what to look for so next year you can ignore my articles. Kidding! Keep coming back, Mom and Dad!

It’s time to buy, sell or hold my “September Stars”.

Drew Stubbs
My Projection:
 .255/90/25/75/30

Drew Stubbs through June:
.255/55/11/32/23

Drew Stubbs extrapolated 2011:
.255/110/22/64/46

Research Concern: BABIP
Again his BABIP rose, this time to .375. It does concern me, because a July, August or September swoon could really devastate his batting average and counting stats.

Conclusion: This guy’s numbers are all over the place, but somehow his counting stats are very close to what was predicted back in the pre-season. His K% jumped to 40.6%. Yuck! His HR/FB jumped to 18.2%, which shows us he was all or nothing (which I’ve said many times) when looked at with his K%. It was nice to see him get his LD% back up, but the 13.6 IFFB% shows that he can get his average up if he starts driving the ball more and being more selective at what pitches to take yard.

Buy, Sell or Hold? HOLD

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May 2011 “September Star” Review

Long overdue to get this May article out. I’ve let my two readers down (my parents). Lo siento! Get your recap from April (here).

It’s time to buy, sell or hold my “September Stars”.

Drew Stubbs
My Projection:
 .255/90/25/75/30

Drew Stubbs through May:
.258/39/7/23/16

Drew Stubbs extrapolated 2011:
.258/117/21/69/48

Research Concern: BABIP
Stubbs had a BABIP of .361 in May, which is a bit above his carer average. His batting average was right in line with April’s.

Conclusion: Stubbs HR/FB came back to earth in May, so right now he is on pace for a 20/40 season. Seems I was low on his SB potential

Buy, Sell or Hold? BUY

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2011 Fantasy Baseball “September Stars” Series: Brian Matusz

This week we take a look at our final “September Star”: Brian Matusz.

Matusz was a 2010 pre-season fantasy sleeper as he lit up the opposition in spring training. As most will point out, don’t place too much stock into March heroes. In his first full season, he compiled a line of 10-12/4.30/1.34/143 in 175+ innings for the Orioles. From August on, though, he looked every bit the ace many were hoping he’d become.

Let’s look at those final two months and decide if he is ready to turn in a full season of magic…

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2011 Fantasy Baseball “September Stars” Series: Madison Bumgarner

This week we take a look at our second “September Star” pitcher: Madison Bumgarner.

Bumgarner made only one start in 2009, but wound up getting 18 in 2010. His season was a little up and down by month, but he was stellar in July and September.

Let’s focus on his September stat line to try and discover if he can continue his effectiveness into 2011…

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2011 Fantasy Baseball “September Stars” Series: Logan Morrison

Last week we looked at Ryan Raburn (here).

This week we peer into the crystal ball that is forecasting to determine if LOGAN MORRISON is primed for greatness in 2011. If you’re not in a league that counts BB or OBP you might have missed a very nice two months from a guy that won’t turn 24 until late August. And unless you’re a rookie named Stanton, you get a little overlooked from folks outside of Miami.

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2011 American League Central Previews- Royals

Today’s Focus: Kansas City Royals

The biggest news for the Royals this offseason is the loss of Zack Greinke. In return the Royals received Alcides Escobar, Lorenzo Cain and Jeremy Jeffress. Alcides Escobar is not only a HUGE defensive upgrade, he can also be a terror on the base paths and is a good contact hitter. Don’t let the 14 SB over the past two years fool you, anyone would have trouble stealing a base from the 8th spot in a National League lineup. He may be their top candidate for leadoff even though he can’t draw a walk. Lorenzo Cain also brings speed to the lineup but his Major League sample size is too small for us to make any solid predictions. Jeremy Jeffress looks to make an immediate impact in the bullpen while hitting 100 mph on the radar gun.

Billy Butler locked in at the 3 spot in the order. It will be interesting to see how the Royals handle the Eric Hosmer call up. The team would not have room for Hosmer, Butler and Kila Ka’aihue. Spring training will have to play out before we decide the odd man out in the 2B/3B situation. I would start Mike Aviles at 2B and Wilson Betemit at 3B until Mike Moustakas is ready, leaving Chris Getz the odd man out. Jeff Francoeur, Alex Gordon and a combination of Lorenzo Cain/Melky Cabrera will man the outfield.

The starting rotation for the Royals are nothing more than place-holders for the prospects waiting to arrive. Luke Hochevar is the staff ace (Hochevar a former #1 pick himself), followed by Jeff Francis, Bruce Chen, Kyle Davies and probably Vin Mazzaro. The bullpen is pretty right-handed unless Tim Collins makes the team. Robinson Tejeda is still the set-up man for Joakim Soria.

Notable Pick Ups: Alcides Escobar, Lorenzo Cain, Jeff Francoeur, Jeremy Jeffress, Vin Mazzaro, Melky Cabrera, Jeff Francis

Notable Losses: Zack Greinke, David DeJesus, Yuniesky Betancourt, Brian Bannister, Gill Meche

Look for the Royals and their revitalized lineup to pass the Cleveland Indians for 4th place in the A.L. Central in 2011.