Tag Archives: MLB projections

Killin’ the Odds & the Regular Season

Saturday , 4/2/11

Minnesota Twins (-113) @ Toronto Blue Jays (+103) My Pick: Twins Straight Up -113

The Jays’ outburst yesterday helped lower the price today. It’s a pretty good deal for a Liriano-Drabek matchup and Liriano doesn’t give up many long-balls. Expect the Twins to be patient with Kyle Drabek and make him throw strikes. I also give the edge to the Twins’ bullpen.

Chicago White Sox (-125) @ Cleveland Indians (+115) My Pick: White Sox Straight Up -125

The White Sox scored 15 runs yesterday but don’t blame it all on Fausto Carmona. It doesn’t look like they will repeat their dreadful April from 2010. The White Sox are far superior to the Indians which makes this an easy pick at -125.

Boston Red Sox (+105) @ Texas Rangers (-115) My Pick: Rangers Straight Up -115

Ian Kinsler, Nelson Cruz, Josh Hamilton and Michael Young have hit John Lackey hard in their careers. I think it will be another short day for Lackey in Arlington. The current Red Sox haven’t had much success with Cobly Lewis. With the Rangers being at home, take them to cover the Run Line of -1.5 (+165) if your feeling a little frisky.

Disagree? Light me up in the comments.

Brian “Killboy” Kilpatrick is currently up +662 imaginary dollars in 2011.

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Fantasy Baseball Bounce Back Player Of The Week: Jason Bay

Bay had a terrible season last year from two perspectives. He was injured and missed over 60 games, but even when playing his slugging was way down and he finished with his lowest home run total since playing in only 30 games his rookie season. Prior to 2010, Bay had been a borderline great player who you could count on for 30 HR’s and 100 RBI:

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2011 Fantasy Baseball Bust: Derek Jeter

Derek Jeter is an 11-time All-Star, five-time World Series champion, five-time Gold Glover, four-time Silver Slugger and the 2000 World Series MVP.

No doubt about it, Derek Jeter is a first-ballot Hall of Famer and the greatest Yankee shortstop of all time. Jeter will continue to hit at the top of the Yankee lineup.

So, what has the Yankee captain done for me to consider him a bust?

Derek Jeter easily had the worst season of his career in 2010 at age 36. He suffered career lows in batting average (.270), BABIP (.307), ISO (.100), OPS (.710) and wOBA (.320).

When looking at his GB rate of 65.7 percent (highest in MLB), you can see he had all kinds of trouble keeping the ball off the ground. 

His GB percent is troublesome because of his declining speed. His LD rate (16.1 percent) and FB rate (18.2 percent) are both career-lows. He will not be banging out too many infield hits and he isn’t getting any lift on the ball.

I don’t think Derek Jeter will have a horrible fantasy season and shortstop is very shallow, but Derek Jeter’s ADP is 48. He is being taken before Justin Morneau, Adam Dunn, Jose Bautista, Jayson Werth, Ian Kinsler and all but six starting pitchers.

If he outperforms all of these guys in the 2011 fantasy season, I will walk into a McDonald’s with my pants down and post it on YouTube.

Wait 50 picks and draft Alexei Ramirez or wait 75 picks and draft Stephen Drew. They both could put up better numbers than Jeter this year. Hell, I bet Ian Desmond 150 picks later could put up comparable numbers to Jeter.

If you miss out on a top-tier SS, don’t think Derek Jeter is the answer to your problems.

Projection: .295 AVG, 9 HR, 59 RBI, 101 R, 14 SB