04.09.11 Box Score Breakdown: Fantasy MLB News and Notes

A full slate of great games on the second Saturday of the season including a Doubleheader in Baltimore and a suspended game in San Diego. Kudos to the schedule makers for all the great divisional rivalries right off the bat – none better than Yankees-Red Sox which always has a playoff atmosphere and tons of fantasy implications. The Red Sox were desperate to build on Friday’s first win, but it was not to be as the Yanks prevailed 9-4. Not to be outdone, the Phillies hot bats picked right back up after Friday’s loss to crush their chief rival Braves 10-2. The Rangers were blanked in the opener by the O’s but then turned around and spanked them in the night cap 13-1. And then we had A’s at Twins – wow, what a slug fest as the A’s prevail 1-0 behind Gio. Neither of these teams can hit their way out of a wet paper bag. The Rays nightmare April continues as they dropped to 1-7 reminiscent of their pre-2008 dominance. The Giants Miguel Tejada walked off on the Cardinals to turn a 2-1 deficit into a 3-2 win.

2011 Fantasy Baseball Sleeper: Derrek Lee

Derrek Lee had a down year in 2010. Lee’s 19 home runs marked his lowest total since 1998 (min. 250 PA). His 80 runs were his lowest total since 2000. His 80 RBI were his lowest total since 2001.

I suppose saying he had a “down year” is a bit of an understatement. From 2007-2009 Lee averaged 26 home runs, 92 runs, 94 RBI, .304 AVG and a .340 BABIP. So what gives?

A closer look at Derrek Lee’s peripherals suggests serious unluckiness. Lee’s 2010 BABIP of .309 is his lowest since 2004 and doesn’t match his .322 career mark. The huge dip in his BABIP doesn’t jive with his 22.5 percent line-drive rate and career-low 1.3 percent infield fly-ball rate. All of Lee’s other peripherals are fairly similar to his career.

The Orioles offense looks very strong for 2011. Lee will be batting third behind Brian Roberts and Nick Markakis who get on base at a decent clip. Vladimir Guerrero, Luke Scott and Mark Reynolds will be batting behind him. Lee is hitting in a much-improved lineup and looks to have the perfect setup. Derrek Lee will have boatloads of opportunities to score and drive in runs.

Camden Yards has a 126 home run index for right-handed hitters. Compare that to Turner Field (92) and Wrigley Field (102).

Derrek Lee’s current ADP is 273. He is being taken after Adam Lind (182.1), Adam LaRoche (182.6), Carlos Pena (197.3), Gabby Sanchez (210.9) and Ike Davis (228.9). Adam LaRoche put up the best line of the five listed with .261/75/25/100. Those numbers are certainly obtainable.

It’s no guarantee that Lee will outperform all these guys but, the value is certainly there. Why even waste a pick on Paul Konerko (70.8), Billy Butler (84.1) or Aubrey Huff (107.2) when you can draft Derrek Lee 140-185 picks later?

2011 Projection: .291 AVG, 85 R, 27 HR, 93 RBI, 1 SB

2011 MLB Spring Training Review: Week of February 27th

SPRING TRAINING QUICK HITS

There is still talk of Francisco Liriano being dealt to the Yankees within the next two weeks. Still not sure how this makes sense for Minnesota, but they’re not exactly doing anything to dispel the reports…Fausto Carmona has rightfully been named the Indians’ 2011 Opening Day starter, this after winning 13 games last year with a 3.77 ERA…Destined for the bullpen, Aroldis Chapman continues to electrify starting off the spring with 4K in 2 IP. And he’s also walked three…Just when it appeared time to worry about Domonic Brown‘s spring struggles, we now get to worry an additional 4-6 weeks as he fractured his hamate bone. Remember Ryan Zimmerman fractured the same one and it sapped his power for some time. Ben Francisco now has a great opportunity to do something with this opportunity…

2011 Fantasy Baseball Rankings: OUTFIELD

Ryan Braun or Carlos Gonzalez at #1? That was the debate, though one guy even ranked Carl Crawford as his #1. Madness!

Ryan Braun: Ready to tee off in 2011

And…Ryan Braun takes home our #1 OF ranking, but it was close. You could definitely make an argument for either, but the composite sided with the guy who has done it more than once before. You’ll notice our individual rankings are all over the place, showcasing our different views. When compiled, it’s a pretty safe list with hidden gems when compared to the latest ADP data. There is lots and lots of value late in the draft, so if you miss out on top-tier guys while stockpiling other positions you can always get a proven vet in the 30s and 40s.

Onto the Rankings…

RANK	PLAYER	Brian	Mike	Killboy	Jesse	Eric	COMP
1	Ryan Braun – MIL	1	2	2	1	1	1.4
2	Carlos Gonzalez – COL	2	3	1	2	2	2
3	Carl Crawford – BOS	3	1	3	4	3	2.8
4	Josh Hamilton – TEX	5	5	4	5	4	4.6
5	Matt Holliday – STL	4	6	5	3	5	4.6
6	Shin-Soo Choo – CLE	6	10	6	6	8	7.2
7	Matt Kemp – LAD	7	4	7	18	6	8.4
8	Nelson Cruz – TEX	22	9	9	7	7	10.8
9	Andrew McCutchen – PIT	9	11	8	14	12	10.8
10	Hunter Pence – HOU	13	12	13	11	9	11.6
11	Jason Heyward – ATL	10	13	15	9	11	11.6
12	Andre Ethier – LAD	15	14	12	12	16	13.8
13	Justin Upton – ARI	8	8	11	32	10	13.8
14	Jose Bautista – TOR	17	22	10	10	13	14.4
15	Jacoby Ellsbury – BOS	19	7	18	26	15	17
16	Alex Rios – CHW	20	17	16	13	23	17.8
17	Ichiro Suzuki – SEA	12	41	14	8	14	17.8
18	Jayson Werth – WAS	11	15	27	19	17	17.8
19	Jay Bruce – CIN	14	16	19	34	18	20.2
20	Corey Hart – MIL	16	31	20	29	26	24.4
21	Shane Victorino – PHI	28	25	21	35	20	25.8
22	Aubrey Huff – SF	25	26	25	15	39	26
23	Delmon Young – MIN	21	18	28	42	24	26.6
24	Drew Stubbs – CIN	23	21	30	41	19	26.8
25	Nick Markakis – BAL	18	24	36	25	31	26.8
26	Mike Stanton – FLA	24	37	31	28	21	28.2
27	Chris Young – ARI	33	27	22	39	25	29.2
28	Torii Hunter – LAA	30	30	41	17	37	31
29	Nick Swisher – NYY	45	29	33	23	29	31.8
30	Martin Prado – ATL	26	28	32	52	22	32
31	Juan Pierre – CHW	36	32	39	21	34	32.4
32	Curtis Granderson – NYY	32	40	23	36	33	32.8
33	Brett Gardner – NYY	27	20	40	38	44	33.8
34	B.J. Upton – TB	41	38	17	58	27	36.2
35	Colby Rasmus – STL	40	23	29	–	28	36.2
36	Carlos Lee – HOU	50	43	24	27	40	36.8
37	Bobby Abreu – LAA	42	46	34	22	42	37.2
38	Vernon Wells – LAA	35	58	43	20	36	38.4
39	Adam Jones – BAL	37	33	46	40	38	38.8
40	Angel Pagan – NYM	34	36	45	45	46	41.2
41	Jason Bay – NYM	31	56	35	51	35	41.6
42	Jose Tabata – PIT	47	19	48	46	56	43.2
43	Ben Zobrist – TB	–	52	50	16	41	44
44	Grady Sizemore – CLE	39	42	51	–	32	45
45	Michael Cuddyer – MIN	53	47	53	24	51	45.6
46	Carlos Beltran – NYM	38	35	56	57	47	46.6
47	Luke Scott – BAL	60	57	26	44	48	47
48	Ryan Raburn – DET	29	48	37	–	–	47.2
49	Magglio Ordonez – DET	–	45	44	30	58	47.6
50	Michael Bourn – HOU	56	50	47	47	45	49
51	Carlos Quentin – CHW	43	–	38	–	43	49.2
52	Manny Ramirez – TB	48	44	42	59	57	50
53	Austin Jackson – DET	52	55	59	55	30	50.2
54	Andres Torres – SF	–	54	52	37	49	50.6
55	Rajai Davis – TOR	44	39	–	60	50	50.8
56	Denard Span – MIN	–	53	58	31	54	51.4
57	Coco Crisp – OAK	–	34	–	–	55	54.4
58	Alfonso Soriano – CHC	49	–	49	–	52	54.4
59	Desmond Jennings – TB	–	–	–	33	–	55.4
60	Ryan Ludwick – SD	51	–	55	49	–	55.4

 

JUSTIN UPTON…Upton is coming off a year in which he took a considerable step backwards. Through his first 3 seasons in the big leagues he had consistently improved his statistics as his playing time increased, expect a bounce back this year. For more, continue reading (here).

JACOBY ELLSBURY… Remember this guy?  He’s a season removed from stealing 70 bases, scoring 94 runs, and batting .301.  Ellsbury was a wasted pick for lot of fantasy owners last year, when he missed all but 18 games, but now he’s healthy and ready to go.  I’ve seen this guy ranked all over the place (including our individual rankings) but he has the potential to be a top 10 outfielder.  Don’t wait too long to grab him. .295/90/7/55/60

B.J. UPTON…Even though BJ Upton hit .237 last year, he still finished the season ranked as the 29th fantasy outfielder in Yahoo. His speed is too good to repeat his .304 BABIP and his career mark is .334.The 26 year old is fully healthy so his power should be back to stay. Other than Carl Crawford, he is the best candidate to go 20/40. .259/78/20/73/45

SLEEPER: JOSE TABATA…Most forget Jose Tabata was a touted Yankee prospect, but certainly remember his estranged wife. After his June call-up, Tabata went .321/53/3/31/14 in July/August/September. Extrapolate that and he goes .321/106/6/62/28 in a season. At only 22 he has plenty of time to develop into a double-digit HR hitter and the speed is real. Currently the #51 OF off the board. I have him at #19 with a projected 2011 line of .300/90/10/60/30.

BUST: MATT KEMP…Fantasy Managers have been waiting for the great Matt Kemp break out for the past couple seasons and I’m here to say they shouldn’t hold their breath.  His unsustainably high BABIP, high K% and low BB% really caught up to him in 2010.  He also forgot how to steal bases being caught almost half the time.  Questions about his desire and makeup all spell reasons to stay away as other managers continue to way over pay for Kemp taking him as early as #16 overall.  .278/85/25/85/25

American League East Previews – Orioles

Today’s focus: Baltimore Orioles

To all the other teams in the American League East, having the Orioles in the division has made life much easier the last few years. Never a need to worry about being in the basement when you’ve got good old Baltimore to fill the cellar for you. The Orioles find themselves coming off three years in a row at the bottom of the pile and amazingly 13 losing seasons in a row.

Baltimore has stayed out of the free for all signings for the last several off seasons and focused on developing talent from within. Players such as Matt Wieters, Nick Markakis, Jake Arrieta and Brian Matuzs are considered high ceiling guys. This offseason however, they revamped the left side of their infield by bringing in JJ Hardy and Mark Reynolds, inserted a veteran presence into their rotation with Justin Duchscherer, added first baseman Derrek Lee and DH Vladimir Guerrero . Further development of their young pitchers, many of whom were at one time rated top prospects by Baseball America, and continued growth of their developing players should allow for an improved season. The addition of Buck Showalter as manager has reinvigorated this group and has them once again believing in their ability to win.

Notable Losses Include: Kevin Millwood, Julio Lugo, Ty Wigginton, Corey Patterson, David Hernandez, Matt Albers

Notable Pick Ups: Derrek Lee, JJ Hardy, Mark Reynolds, Kevin Gregg, Brendan Harris, Justin Duchscherer, Vladimir Guerrero

At this point the O’s have picked up some nice infield help, have a good/potentially very good young pitching staff, a solid clean up hitter with the addition of Vlad, and a positive outlook with Showalter at the helm. I’ll go out on a limb here and say this team breaks .500 and ends their streak of last place finishes in the division this season.