Tag Archives: Nick Markakis

04.09.11 Box Score Breakdown: Fantasy MLB News and Notes

A full slate of great games on the second Saturday of the season including a Doubleheader in Baltimore and a suspended game in San Diego. Kudos to the schedule makers for all the great divisional rivalries right off the bat – none better than Yankees-Red Sox which always has a playoff atmosphere and tons of fantasy implications. The Red Sox were desperate to build on Friday’s first win, but it was not to be as the Yanks prevailed 9-4. Not to be outdone, the Phillies hot bats picked right back up after Friday’s loss to crush their chief rival Braves 10-2. The Rangers were blanked in the opener by the O’s but then turned around and spanked them in the night cap 13-1. And then we had A’s at Twins – wow, what a slug fest as the A’s prevail 1-0 behind Gio. Neither of these teams can hit their way out of a wet paper bag. The Rays nightmare April continues as they dropped to 1-7 reminiscent of their pre-2008 dominance. The Giants Miguel Tejada walked off on the Cardinals to turn a 2-1 deficit into a 3-2 win.
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2011 Fantasy Baseball Sleeper: Derrek Lee

Derrek Lee had a down year in 2010. Lee’s 19 home runs marked his lowest total since 1998 (min. 250 PA). His 80 runs were his lowest total since 2000. His 80 RBI were his lowest total since 2001.

I suppose saying he had a “down year” is a bit of an understatement. From 2007-2009 Lee averaged 26 home runs, 92 runs, 94 RBI, .304 AVG and a .340 BABIP. So what gives?

A closer look at Derrek Lee’s peripherals suggests serious unluckiness. Lee’s 2010 BABIP of .309 is his lowest since 2004 and doesn’t match his .322 career mark. The huge dip in his BABIP doesn’t jive with his 22.5 percent line-drive rate and career-low 1.3 percent infield fly-ball rate. All of Lee’s other peripherals are fairly similar to his career.

The Orioles offense looks very strong for 2011. Lee will be batting third behind Brian Roberts and Nick Markakis who get on base at a decent clip. Vladimir Guerrero, Luke Scott and Mark Reynolds will be batting behind him. Lee is hitting in a much-improved lineup and looks to have the perfect setup. Derrek Lee will have boatloads of opportunities to score and drive in runs.

Camden Yards has a 126 home run index for right-handed hitters. Compare that to Turner Field (92) and Wrigley Field (102).

Derrek Lee’s current ADP is 273. He is being taken after Adam Lind (182.1), Adam LaRoche (182.6), Carlos Pena (197.3), Gabby Sanchez (210.9) and Ike Davis (228.9). Adam LaRoche put up the best line of the five listed with .261/75/25/100. Those numbers are certainly obtainable.

It’s no guarantee that Lee will outperform all these guys but, the value is certainly there. Why even waste a pick on Paul Konerko (70.8), Billy Butler (84.1) or Aubrey Huff (107.2) when you can draft Derrek Lee 140-185 picks later?

2011 Projection: .291 AVG, 85 R, 27 HR, 93 RBI, 1 SB

2011 MLB Spring Training Review: Week of February 27th

SPRING TRAINING QUICK HITS

There is still talk of Francisco Liriano being dealt to the Yankees within the next two weeks. Still not sure how this makes sense for Minnesota, but they’re not exactly doing anything to dispel the reports…Fausto Carmona has rightfully been named the Indians’ 2011 Opening Day starter, this after winning 13 games last year with a 3.77 ERA…Destined for the bullpen, Aroldis Chapman continues to electrify starting off the spring with 4K in 2 IP. And he’s also walked three…Just when it appeared time to worry about Domonic Brown‘s spring struggles, we now get to worry an additional 4-6 weeks as he fractured his hamate bone. Remember Ryan Zimmerman fractured the same one and it sapped his power for some time. Ben Francisco now has a great opportunity to do something with this opportunity…

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2011 Fantasy Baseball Rankings: OUTFIELD

Ryan Braun or Carlos Gonzalez at #1? That was the debate, though one guy even ranked Carl Crawford as his #1. Madness!

Ryan Braun: Ready to tee off in 2011

And…Ryan Braun takes home our #1 OF ranking, but it was close. You could definitely make an argument for either, but the composite sided with the guy who has done it more than once before. You’ll notice our individual rankings are all over the place, showcasing our different views. When compiled, it’s a pretty safe list with hidden gems when compared to the latest ADP data. There is lots and lots of value late in the draft, so if you miss out on top-tier guys while stockpiling other positions you can always get a proven vet in the 30s and 40s.

Onto the Rankings…

RANK PLAYER Brian Mike Killboy Jesse Eric COMP
1 Ryan Braun – MIL 1 2 2 1 1 1.4
2 Carlos Gonzalez – COL 2 3 1 2 2 2
3 Carl Crawford – BOS 3 1 3 4 3 2.8
4 Josh Hamilton – TEX 5 5 4 5 4 4.6
5 Matt Holliday – STL 4 6 5 3 5 4.6
6 Shin-Soo Choo – CLE 6 10 6 6 8 7.2
7 Matt Kemp – LAD 7 4 7 18 6 8.4
8 Nelson Cruz – TEX 22 9 9 7 7 10.8
9 Andrew McCutchen – PIT 9 11 8 14 12 10.8
10 Hunter Pence – HOU 13 12 13 11 9 11.6
11 Jason Heyward – ATL 10 13 15 9 11 11.6
12 Andre Ethier – LAD 15 14 12 12 16 13.8
13 Justin Upton – ARI 8 8 11 32 10 13.8
14 Jose Bautista – TOR 17 22 10 10 13 14.4
15 Jacoby Ellsbury – BOS 19 7 18 26 15 17
16 Alex Rios – CHW 20 17 16 13 23 17.8
17 Ichiro Suzuki – SEA 12 41 14 8 14 17.8
18 Jayson Werth – WAS 11 15 27 19 17 17.8
19 Jay Bruce – CIN 14 16 19 34 18 20.2
20 Corey Hart – MIL 16 31 20 29 26 24.4
21 Shane Victorino – PHI 28 25 21 35 20 25.8
22 Aubrey Huff – SF 25 26 25 15 39 26
23 Delmon Young – MIN 21 18 28 42 24 26.6
24 Drew Stubbs – CIN 23 21 30 41 19 26.8
25 Nick Markakis – BAL 18 24 36 25 31 26.8
26 Mike Stanton – FLA 24 37 31 28 21 28.2
27 Chris Young – ARI 33 27 22 39 25 29.2
28 Torii Hunter – LAA 30 30 41 17 37 31
29 Nick Swisher – NYY 45 29 33 23 29 31.8
30 Martin Prado – ATL 26 28 32 52 22 32
31 Juan Pierre – CHW 36 32 39 21 34 32.4
32 Curtis Granderson – NYY 32 40 23 36 33 32.8
33 Brett Gardner – NYY 27 20 40 38 44 33.8
34 B.J. Upton – TB 41 38 17 58 27 36.2
35 Colby Rasmus – STL 40 23 29 28 36.2
36 Carlos Lee – HOU 50 43 24 27 40 36.8
37 Bobby Abreu – LAA 42 46 34 22 42 37.2
38 Vernon Wells – LAA 35 58 43 20 36 38.4
39 Adam Jones – BAL 37 33 46 40 38 38.8
40 Angel Pagan – NYM 34 36 45 45 46 41.2
41 Jason Bay – NYM 31 56 35 51 35 41.6
42 Jose Tabata – PIT 47 19 48 46 56 43.2
43 Ben Zobrist – TB 52 50 16 41 44
44 Grady Sizemore – CLE 39 42 51 32 45
45 Michael Cuddyer – MIN 53 47 53 24 51 45.6
46 Carlos Beltran – NYM 38 35 56 57 47 46.6
47 Luke Scott – BAL 60 57 26 44 48 47
48 Ryan Raburn – DET 29 48 37 47.2
49 Magglio Ordonez – DET 45 44 30 58 47.6
50 Michael Bourn – HOU 56 50 47 47 45 49
51 Carlos Quentin – CHW 43 38 43 49.2
52 Manny Ramirez – TB 48 44 42 59 57 50
53 Austin Jackson – DET 52 55 59 55 30 50.2
54 Andres Torres – SF 54 52 37 49 50.6
55 Rajai Davis – TOR 44 39 60 50 50.8
56 Denard Span – MIN 53 58 31 54 51.4
57 Coco Crisp – OAK 34 55 54.4
58 Alfonso Soriano – CHC 49 49 52 54.4
59 Desmond Jennings – TB 33 55.4
60 Ryan Ludwick – SD 51 55 49 55.4

 

JUSTIN UPTONUpton is coming off a year in which he took a considerable step backwards. Through his first 3 seasons in the big leagues he had consistently improved his statistics as his playing time increased, expect a bounce back this year. For more, continue reading (here).

JACOBY ELLSBURY Remember this guy?  He’s a season removed from stealing 70 bases, scoring 94 runs, and batting .301.  Ellsbury was a wasted pick for lot of fantasy owners last year, when he missed all but 18 games, but now he’s healthy and ready to go.  I’ve seen this guy ranked all over the place (including our individual rankings) but he has the potential to be a top 10 outfielder.  Don’t wait too long to grab him. .295/90/7/55/60

B.J. UPTON…Even though BJ Upton hit .237 last year, he still finished the season ranked as the 29th fantasy outfielder in Yahoo. His speed is too good to repeat his .304 BABIP and his career mark is .334.The 26 year old is fully healthy so his power should be back to stay. Other than Carl Crawford, he is the best candidate to go 20/40. .259/78/20/73/45

SLEEPER: JOSE TABATA…Most forget Jose Tabata was a touted Yankee prospect, but certainly remember his estranged wife. After his June call-up, Tabata went .321/53/3/31/14 in July/August/September. Extrapolate that and he goes .321/106/6/62/28 in a season. At only 22 he has plenty of time to develop into a double-digit HR hitter and the speed is real. Currently the #51 OF off the board. I have him at #19 with a projected 2011 line of .300/90/10/60/30.

BUST: MATT KEMP…Fantasy Managers have been waiting for the great Matt Kemp break out for the past couple seasons and I’m here to say they shouldn’t hold their breath.  His unsustainably high BABIP, high K% and low BB% really caught up to him in 2010.  He also forgot how to steal bases being caught almost half the time.  Questions about his desire and makeup all spell reasons to stay away as other managers continue to way over pay for Kemp taking him as early as #16 overall.  .278/85/25/85/25

American League East Previews – Orioles

Today’s focus: Baltimore Orioles


To all the other teams in the American League East, having the Orioles in the division has made life much easier the last few years. Never a need to worry about being in the basement when you’ve got good old Baltimore to fill the cellar for you. The Orioles find themselves coming off three years in a row at the bottom of the pile and amazingly 13 losing seasons in a row.

Baltimore has stayed out of the free for all signings for the last several off seasons and focused on developing talent from within. Players such as Matt Wieters, Nick Markakis, Jake Arrieta and Brian Matuzs are considered high ceiling guys. This offseason however, they revamped the left side of their infield by bringing in JJ Hardy and Mark Reynolds, inserted a veteran presence into their rotation with Justin Duchscherer, added first baseman Derrek Lee and DH Vladimir Guerrero . Further development of their young pitchers, many of whom were at one time rated top prospects by Baseball America, and continued growth of their developing players should allow for an improved season. The addition of Buck Showalter as manager has reinvigorated this group and has them once again believing in their ability to win.

Notable Losses Include: Kevin Millwood, Julio Lugo, Ty Wigginton, Corey Patterson, David Hernandez, Matt Albers

Notable Pick Ups: Derrek Lee, JJ Hardy, Mark Reynolds, Kevin Gregg, Brendan Harris, Justin Duchscherer, Vladimir Guerrero

At this point the O’s have picked up some nice infield help, have a good/potentially very good young pitching staff, a solid clean up hitter with the addition of Vlad, and a positive outlook with Showalter at the helm. I’ll go out on a limb here and say this team breaks .500 and ends their streak of last place finishes in the division this season.