Tag Archives: Rafael Soriano

Killin’ the Odds & the Regular Season

Welcome to Killin’ the Odds & the Regular Season! In the “Today’s Games” section, you will see my picks to win for the day. I will post either the “Money Line” or the “Run Line”. The money line is always a “straight up” bet which means your team will never need to win or lose by a certain amount. The money line odds represent what amount has to be wagered or what can be won. For example, if there is a minus sign (-) next to an amount, you have to wager that amount to win 100. If there is a plus sign (+) next to an amount, you will receive that amount for every 100 wagered. When you see a “Run Line”, that means a spread is involved. In Baseball, the spread is always 1.5 runs but you can find alternate run lines on some websites. When I post a run line of -1.5, that means our team must win by two runs. When you see a run line of +1.5, that means our team can lose by one run and still win the wager. Listen to our show from April 5th, 2011 for more explanation and tips.
Today’s Games (4/7/11)
Oakland Athletics (Even) @ Toronto Blue Jays (-120) My Pick: Blue Jays Money Line
With a price of -120, people are giving Trevor Cahill more respect than he deserves. He will not repeat 2011 but people are betting like he will. Cahill was also gave up 8 runs in 5 innings in his only start at the Rogers Centre in 2010. Jose Bautista probably won’t play but Ricky Romero has looked good thus far.
Atlanta Braves (-114) @ Milwaukee Brewers (-106) My Pick: Atlanta Braves Money Line
The Brewers have had trouble scoring runs as of late. Tommy Hanson was terrific in his only start at Miller Park Last year (8 IP, 0 ER, 8 K). Shaun Marcum wasn’t very sharp in his first start with the Brewers. It’s time to start picking on the Brewers before they heat up.
 Tuesday’s Results
Los Angeles Dodgers: LOSS -100
The Dodgers could not get anything going versus Jhoulys Chacin.
New York Yankees: LOSS -100
 Rafael Soriano just jumped from “Not Ranked” to “Number ONE” on my all-time hate list. 
Los Angeles Angels: WIN +87
I’m a huge Weaver fan and it looks like the Angels may now be able to close out some games!
Daily Total: -113
Brian “Killboy” Kilpatrick is currently up +568 imaginary dollars in 2011.
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Betting always involves a level of risk and you should never bet more than you can afford to lose. No guarantees are given as to the amount you will make from betting. Any liability from following any information given is completely waived by 4thandhome.com, and you are to understand that you follow it completely at your own risk.


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2011 Fantasy Baseball Busts: David Price

At the young age of 25, David Price has already started in an All-Star game, pitched in the World Series and finished runner-up  in the 2010 Cy Young voting. In 2010, he posted a 2.72 ERA with 19 wins and 188 strikeouts in 208.2 innings. Those numbers look outstanding but, the numbers under the surface paint a different picture.

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American League East Previews – Yankees

Today’s focus: New York Yankees

After finishing in second place last season and not adding another world championship to their collection, the popular thought was that the Yankees would reload over the off season. All signs pointed toward yes during their pursuit of Cliff Lee, but as it turns out, money really ISN’T everything to some people.

The challenge the Yankees will face this year will be their rotation. While C.C. Sabathia is a solid ace, once you get past him there are a lot of question marks. Phil Hughes looks like a solid starter, maybe not a number 2 which is most likely where he will fall in the rotation this year, but solid. AJ Burnett is looking to bounce back from a down year which seemed more related to his mental approach than his stuff. Joba Chamberlain we’re being told won’t be a starter and Andy Pettitte has decided to retire. The recent signing of Freddy Garcia at least moves either Ivan Nova or Sergio Mitre out of the rotation, thankfully for all those Yankee fans. If the Yanks find another capable starter, Burnett gets his groove back and Hughes continues to develop, they would have a very good staff, if all those things don’t happen it will be below average.

Notable Losses Include: Javier Vazquez, Lance Berkman, Marcus Thames, Andy Pettitte

Notable Pick Ups: Freddy Garcia, Rafael Soriano, Andruw Jones, Russell Martin

While overall I still see a 90+ win team here, the concern is not that the Yankees have declined, but how much the Red Sox have improved. On paper I would see the Yanks finishing in second once again, but this year it will be behind the Sox. Of course, that’s just on paper and there’s a reason they still play the games.

American League East Previews – Rays

Today’s focus: Tampa Bay Rays

Coming off a division winning season, you would think the prospects would be sunny for the Rays. However, losing Carl Crawford, Rafael Soriano, Matt Garza, Grant Balfour, Carlos Pena, Randy Choate, Joaquin Benoit and Jason Bartlett probably changes the thinking just a smidgen.

Joe Maddon still believes Tampa’s goal is to defend last year’s division title. I think that’s an admirable goal, but has about as good a chance of happening as I do of whooping Chuck Liddell in a street fight. While picking up big names in Johnny Damon and Manny Ramirez gives the look of a team trying to compete, realistically these are two players who are way past their respective primes. Damon last season in over 500 at bats hit .271 with 8 HR’s, 51 RBI and 81 runs scored. Manny adds to that with 285 at bats last season producing a respectable .298 average, but only 9 HR’s, 42 RBI and 38 runs scored. You could be optimistic about Manny lasting a full season, but to put it into perspective, Crawford alone last year accounted for a .307 average with 19 HR’s, 90 RBI and 110 runs scored. Basically their offensive stats combined.

Notable Losses Include: Half their team as noted above

Notable Pick Ups: Manny Ramirez, Johnny Damon and not enough else

The Rays have done a good job the last few years with a tight payroll compared to the players in their division. This one definitely looks to be a rebuilding year though and they will be in a fight with Toronto to see who takes the last spot in the division this season.