Tag Archives: Ryan Raburn

July 2011 “September Star” Review

Don’t want to get ahead of ourselves, but this whole September stuff? We could be onto something here…

It’s time to buy, sell or hold (or monitor) my “September Stars”.

Drew Stubbs
My Projection:
 .255/90/25/75/30

Drew Stubbs through July:
.257/72/13/36/26

Drew Stubbs extrapolated 2011:
.257/108/20/54/39

Research Concern: BABIP
The BABIP dropped in July (.354), but not as much as you might think considering his less-than-stellar counting stat output.

Conclusion: July was a month where he didn’t perform and he pretty much followed his team down that path. As the Reds go, so does Drew. His numbers were decent. He had his highest BB rate and his lowest K rate of the season. His ISO (.096) was pretty low, which could be attributed to his higher than normal GB rate (53%). All in all, guys not getting on base in front of him hurt.

Buy, Sell or Hold? HOLD

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June 2011 “September Star” Review

Ok, I am getting back on track here. Some interesting developments with our “Stars”. Listen, we can’t get them all right, but the approach will shine light on some potential bargains and studs as you head into your draft each year. I’ve laid the foundation and showed you what to look for so next year you can ignore my articles. Kidding! Keep coming back, Mom and Dad!

It’s time to buy, sell or hold my “September Stars”.

Drew Stubbs
My Projection:
 .255/90/25/75/30

Drew Stubbs through June:
.255/55/11/32/23

Drew Stubbs extrapolated 2011:
.255/110/22/64/46

Research Concern: BABIP
Again his BABIP rose, this time to .375. It does concern me, because a July, August or September swoon could really devastate his batting average and counting stats.

Conclusion: This guy’s numbers are all over the place, but somehow his counting stats are very close to what was predicted back in the pre-season. His K% jumped to 40.6%. Yuck! His HR/FB jumped to 18.2%, which shows us he was all or nothing (which I’ve said many times) when looked at with his K%. It was nice to see him get his LD% back up, but the 13.6 IFFB% shows that he can get his average up if he starts driving the ball more and being more selective at what pitches to take yard.

Buy, Sell or Hold? HOLD

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May 2011 “September Star” Review

Long overdue to get this May article out. I’ve let my two readers down (my parents). Lo siento! Get your recap from April (here).

It’s time to buy, sell or hold my “September Stars”.

Drew Stubbs
My Projection:
 .255/90/25/75/30

Drew Stubbs through May:
.258/39/7/23/16

Drew Stubbs extrapolated 2011:
.258/117/21/69/48

Research Concern: BABIP
Stubbs had a BABIP of .361 in May, which is a bit above his carer average. His batting average was right in line with April’s.

Conclusion: Stubbs HR/FB came back to earth in May, so right now he is on pace for a 20/40 season. Seems I was low on his SB potential

Buy, Sell or Hold? BUY

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2011 Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire Gems – American League

 

Don't let this end up being your 3rd Baseman!

This weekly column will focus on guys who are out there to be had for nothing in most leagues that can help your team even if only as a short-term fill in. So if you’re like me and have Evan Longoria, Jason Bay, Brian Matusz and Chase Utley sitting on your DL, these are some names you might have to call to the rescue!

Jeremy Guthrie, SP Baltimore Orioles (40% owned in Yahoo, 29% in ESPN leagues)

Current Stat Line – 1 W/6 K/ 0.00 ERA

While clearly we can not expect his next few starts to go as well or better than his first, Guthrie is a solid starter backed by an improved offense in Baltimore. He may not make Sunday’s start due to a bout with Pneumonia, but beyond that he should be ready to go. We can expect wins in the teens, an ERA under 4 and 125+ strike outs.

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2011 Fantasy Baseball “September Stars” Series: Brian Matusz

This week we take a look at our final “September Star”: Brian Matusz.

Matusz was a 2010 pre-season fantasy sleeper as he lit up the opposition in spring training. As most will point out, don’t place too much stock into March heroes. In his first full season, he compiled a line of 10-12/4.30/1.34/143 in 175+ innings for the Orioles. From August on, though, he looked every bit the ace many were hoping he’d become.

Let’s look at those final two months and decide if he is ready to turn in a full season of magic…

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2011 Fantasy Baseball Projections: Assembling a Team After Pick 250

ADP data can be one of the most useful items of information you can have with you at your draft. Not only will you afford yourself the knowledge of knowing who you can  and can’t grab later, but you’ll also find hidden gems that the rest of the fantasy baseball community are letting slip too far. It is these gems we will focus on in this article as I lay out my All Forgotten Team

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2011 Fantasy Baseball “September Stars” Series: Madison Bumgarner

This week we take a look at our second “September Star” pitcher: Madison Bumgarner.

Bumgarner made only one start in 2009, but wound up getting 18 in 2010. His season was a little up and down by month, but he was stellar in July and September.

Let’s focus on his September stat line to try and discover if he can continue his effectiveness into 2011…

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2011 Fantasy Baseball Rankings: OUTFIELD

Ryan Braun or Carlos Gonzalez at #1? That was the debate, though one guy even ranked Carl Crawford as his #1. Madness!

Ryan Braun: Ready to tee off in 2011

And…Ryan Braun takes home our #1 OF ranking, but it was close. You could definitely make an argument for either, but the composite sided with the guy who has done it more than once before. You’ll notice our individual rankings are all over the place, showcasing our different views. When compiled, it’s a pretty safe list with hidden gems when compared to the latest ADP data. There is lots and lots of value late in the draft, so if you miss out on top-tier guys while stockpiling other positions you can always get a proven vet in the 30s and 40s.

Onto the Rankings…

RANK PLAYER Brian Mike Killboy Jesse Eric COMP
1 Ryan Braun – MIL 1 2 2 1 1 1.4
2 Carlos Gonzalez – COL 2 3 1 2 2 2
3 Carl Crawford – BOS 3 1 3 4 3 2.8
4 Josh Hamilton – TEX 5 5 4 5 4 4.6
5 Matt Holliday – STL 4 6 5 3 5 4.6
6 Shin-Soo Choo – CLE 6 10 6 6 8 7.2
7 Matt Kemp – LAD 7 4 7 18 6 8.4
8 Nelson Cruz – TEX 22 9 9 7 7 10.8
9 Andrew McCutchen – PIT 9 11 8 14 12 10.8
10 Hunter Pence – HOU 13 12 13 11 9 11.6
11 Jason Heyward – ATL 10 13 15 9 11 11.6
12 Andre Ethier – LAD 15 14 12 12 16 13.8
13 Justin Upton – ARI 8 8 11 32 10 13.8
14 Jose Bautista – TOR 17 22 10 10 13 14.4
15 Jacoby Ellsbury – BOS 19 7 18 26 15 17
16 Alex Rios – CHW 20 17 16 13 23 17.8
17 Ichiro Suzuki – SEA 12 41 14 8 14 17.8
18 Jayson Werth – WAS 11 15 27 19 17 17.8
19 Jay Bruce – CIN 14 16 19 34 18 20.2
20 Corey Hart – MIL 16 31 20 29 26 24.4
21 Shane Victorino – PHI 28 25 21 35 20 25.8
22 Aubrey Huff – SF 25 26 25 15 39 26
23 Delmon Young – MIN 21 18 28 42 24 26.6
24 Drew Stubbs – CIN 23 21 30 41 19 26.8
25 Nick Markakis – BAL 18 24 36 25 31 26.8
26 Mike Stanton – FLA 24 37 31 28 21 28.2
27 Chris Young – ARI 33 27 22 39 25 29.2
28 Torii Hunter – LAA 30 30 41 17 37 31
29 Nick Swisher – NYY 45 29 33 23 29 31.8
30 Martin Prado – ATL 26 28 32 52 22 32
31 Juan Pierre – CHW 36 32 39 21 34 32.4
32 Curtis Granderson – NYY 32 40 23 36 33 32.8
33 Brett Gardner – NYY 27 20 40 38 44 33.8
34 B.J. Upton – TB 41 38 17 58 27 36.2
35 Colby Rasmus – STL 40 23 29 28 36.2
36 Carlos Lee – HOU 50 43 24 27 40 36.8
37 Bobby Abreu – LAA 42 46 34 22 42 37.2
38 Vernon Wells – LAA 35 58 43 20 36 38.4
39 Adam Jones – BAL 37 33 46 40 38 38.8
40 Angel Pagan – NYM 34 36 45 45 46 41.2
41 Jason Bay – NYM 31 56 35 51 35 41.6
42 Jose Tabata – PIT 47 19 48 46 56 43.2
43 Ben Zobrist – TB 52 50 16 41 44
44 Grady Sizemore – CLE 39 42 51 32 45
45 Michael Cuddyer – MIN 53 47 53 24 51 45.6
46 Carlos Beltran – NYM 38 35 56 57 47 46.6
47 Luke Scott – BAL 60 57 26 44 48 47
48 Ryan Raburn – DET 29 48 37 47.2
49 Magglio Ordonez – DET 45 44 30 58 47.6
50 Michael Bourn – HOU 56 50 47 47 45 49
51 Carlos Quentin – CHW 43 38 43 49.2
52 Manny Ramirez – TB 48 44 42 59 57 50
53 Austin Jackson – DET 52 55 59 55 30 50.2
54 Andres Torres – SF 54 52 37 49 50.6
55 Rajai Davis – TOR 44 39 60 50 50.8
56 Denard Span – MIN 53 58 31 54 51.4
57 Coco Crisp – OAK 34 55 54.4
58 Alfonso Soriano – CHC 49 49 52 54.4
59 Desmond Jennings – TB 33 55.4
60 Ryan Ludwick – SD 51 55 49 55.4

 

JUSTIN UPTONUpton is coming off a year in which he took a considerable step backwards. Through his first 3 seasons in the big leagues he had consistently improved his statistics as his playing time increased, expect a bounce back this year. For more, continue reading (here).

JACOBY ELLSBURY Remember this guy?  He’s a season removed from stealing 70 bases, scoring 94 runs, and batting .301.  Ellsbury was a wasted pick for lot of fantasy owners last year, when he missed all but 18 games, but now he’s healthy and ready to go.  I’ve seen this guy ranked all over the place (including our individual rankings) but he has the potential to be a top 10 outfielder.  Don’t wait too long to grab him. .295/90/7/55/60

B.J. UPTON…Even though BJ Upton hit .237 last year, he still finished the season ranked as the 29th fantasy outfielder in Yahoo. His speed is too good to repeat his .304 BABIP and his career mark is .334.The 26 year old is fully healthy so his power should be back to stay. Other than Carl Crawford, he is the best candidate to go 20/40. .259/78/20/73/45

SLEEPER: JOSE TABATA…Most forget Jose Tabata was a touted Yankee prospect, but certainly remember his estranged wife. After his June call-up, Tabata went .321/53/3/31/14 in July/August/September. Extrapolate that and he goes .321/106/6/62/28 in a season. At only 22 he has plenty of time to develop into a double-digit HR hitter and the speed is real. Currently the #51 OF off the board. I have him at #19 with a projected 2011 line of .300/90/10/60/30.

BUST: MATT KEMP…Fantasy Managers have been waiting for the great Matt Kemp break out for the past couple seasons and I’m here to say they shouldn’t hold their breath.  His unsustainably high BABIP, high K% and low BB% really caught up to him in 2010.  He also forgot how to steal bases being caught almost half the time.  Questions about his desire and makeup all spell reasons to stay away as other managers continue to way over pay for Kemp taking him as early as #16 overall.  .278/85/25/85/25

2011 Fantasy Baseball “September Stars” Series: Ryan Raburn

Last week we looked at Drew Stubbs (here). This week: RYAN RABURN.

From August 1st on, Ryan Raburn had a stat line of .343-39-13-39 during the final months of the 2010 season. He nearly doubled his ABs after the All-Star break, continuing his yearly increase in playing time. What we need to determine is if this was a direct result of playing time or a change in approach. If it’s a direct result of playing time, we may be on the cusp of seeing a truly great season out of a guy who is 2B-eligible in some leagues.

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2011 Fantasy Baseball “September Stars” Series: Drew Stubbs

Last week we looked at the September Star phenomenon and how an astute eye could have forecasted a Jose Bautista 2010 breakout. This week we take a look at our first nominee, Drew Stubbs, to determine if he’s destined for 2011 stardom.

Photo by Donald Miralle/Getty Images North America

Before we get into Stubbs’ prospects, let’s examine the last 5 years of 20-30 players:

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