Tag Archives: Sleepers & Busts

2011 Fantasy Baseball Bust: Rickie Weeks

 

Rickie Weeks dominated in 2010.

His final stats of 112/29/83/11 and triple slash line of .269/.366/.464 were impressive to say the least.

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2011 Fantasy Baseball Sleeper: Derrek Lee

Derrek Lee had a down year in 2010. Lee’s 19 home runs marked his lowest total since 1998 (min. 250 PA). His 80 runs were his lowest total since 2000. His 80 RBI were his lowest total since 2001.

I suppose saying he had a “down year” is a bit of an understatement. From 2007-2009 Lee averaged 26 home runs, 92 runs, 94 RBI, .304 AVG and a .340 BABIP. So what gives?

A closer look at Derrek Lee’s peripherals suggests serious unluckiness. Lee’s 2010 BABIP of .309 is his lowest since 2004 and doesn’t match his .322 career mark. The huge dip in his BABIP doesn’t jive with his 22.5 percent line-drive rate and career-low 1.3 percent infield fly-ball rate. All of Lee’s other peripherals are fairly similar to his career.

The Orioles offense looks very strong for 2011. Lee will be batting third behind Brian Roberts and Nick Markakis who get on base at a decent clip. Vladimir Guerrero, Luke Scott and Mark Reynolds will be batting behind him. Lee is hitting in a much-improved lineup and looks to have the perfect setup. Derrek Lee will have boatloads of opportunities to score and drive in runs.

Camden Yards has a 126 home run index for right-handed hitters. Compare that to Turner Field (92) and Wrigley Field (102).

Derrek Lee’s current ADP is 273. He is being taken after Adam Lind (182.1), Adam LaRoche (182.6), Carlos Pena (197.3), Gabby Sanchez (210.9) and Ike Davis (228.9). Adam LaRoche put up the best line of the five listed with .261/75/25/100. Those numbers are certainly obtainable.

It’s no guarantee that Lee will outperform all these guys but, the value is certainly there. Why even waste a pick on Paul Konerko (70.8), Billy Butler (84.1) or Aubrey Huff (107.2) when you can draft Derrek Lee 140-185 picks later?

2011 Projection: .291 AVG, 85 R, 27 HR, 93 RBI, 1 SB

2011 Fantasy Baseball Bust: Jayson Werth

In the past three years, Jayson Werth has averaged 29 HR, 92 R, 83 RBI, 17 SB, and .279 AVG.  In 2010, Jayson Werth established a career-high .352 BABIP. This number suggests luck because of his career-low line-drive rate of 17.5 percent. 

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2011 Fantasy Baseball Bust: Derek Jeter

Derek Jeter is an 11-time All-Star, five-time World Series champion, five-time Gold Glover, four-time Silver Slugger and the 2000 World Series MVP.

No doubt about it, Derek Jeter is a first-ballot Hall of Famer and the greatest Yankee shortstop of all time. Jeter will continue to hit at the top of the Yankee lineup.

So, what has the Yankee captain done for me to consider him a bust?

Derek Jeter easily had the worst season of his career in 2010 at age 36. He suffered career lows in batting average (.270), BABIP (.307), ISO (.100), OPS (.710) and wOBA (.320).

When looking at his GB rate of 65.7 percent (highest in MLB), you can see he had all kinds of trouble keeping the ball off the ground. 

His GB percent is troublesome because of his declining speed. His LD rate (16.1 percent) and FB rate (18.2 percent) are both career-lows. He will not be banging out too many infield hits and he isn’t getting any lift on the ball.

I don’t think Derek Jeter will have a horrible fantasy season and shortstop is very shallow, but Derek Jeter’s ADP is 48. He is being taken before Justin Morneau, Adam Dunn, Jose Bautista, Jayson Werth, Ian Kinsler and all but six starting pitchers.

If he outperforms all of these guys in the 2011 fantasy season, I will walk into a McDonald’s with my pants down and post it on YouTube.

Wait 50 picks and draft Alexei Ramirez or wait 75 picks and draft Stephen Drew. They both could put up better numbers than Jeter this year. Hell, I bet Ian Desmond 150 picks later could put up comparable numbers to Jeter.

If you miss out on a top-tier SS, don’t think Derek Jeter is the answer to your problems.

Projection: .295 AVG, 9 HR, 59 RBI, 101 R, 14 SB