Tag Archives: Sleepers

2011 Fantasy Baseball Sleeper: Luke Scott

Why all the hate on Luke Scott?

All of his 2010 stats are in-line with his career numbers, he has improved every year with the Orioles, he finished the 2010 fantasy season with a 115 ranking and he is only 32 years old. 

Yet for some reason, he still holds an ADP of 341 and a Yahoo ranking of 209. 

Let’s take a look at what he has done with his time in Baltimore:

Year HR BB% ISO OPS wOBA BABIP LD% HR/FB
2008 23 9.9% .215 .807 .343 .280 17.1% 14%
2009 25 10.9% .229 .828 .355 .283 17.1% 16.7%
2010 27 11.4% .251 .902 .387 .304 18.8% 18.6%

 

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Every year he has improved while registering no more than 475 AB. Imagine what he would do with 550 AB in an upgraded lineup.

The spike in BABIP is actually in line with his career BABIP (.300) and can be justified by his increased LD percent.

Since Luke Scott is a left-handed hitter, he will be cemented in the five spot, splitting up Baltimore’s right-handed hitters.

The middle of the order should look like this:

  • Three: Derrek Lee (R)
  • Four: Vladimir Guerrero (R)
  • Five: Luke Scott (L)
  • Six: Mark Reynolds (R)
  • Seven: Adam Jones (R)

This is great company if you ask me. He should get plenty of RBI opportunities and score plenty of runs.

Luke Scott is a very easy player to manage fantasy-wise. When he is hot, throw him in your UTIL spot and enjoy the ride. When he’s cold, spot start him versus right-handers, at home, at night or on grass.

See chart below:

Split AB HR AVG OBP SLG OPS
RHP 347 20 .297 .385 .550 .935
Home 228 19 .338 .419 .671 1.091
Night 322 20 .295 .378 .550 .928
Grass 397 24 .292 .369 .547 .916

 

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Luke Scott has always been an undrafted “wait and see” waiver wire type guy. Things will change after this year.

2011 Projection: 520 AB, .277 AVG, 29 HR, 85 RBI, 79 R, 2 SB

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2011 Fantasy Baseball Sleeper: Aaron Hill

Has everyone forgotten the fact that this guy is one year removed from a 36 HR season? In some mock drafts, I’ve seen Hill taken outside of the top 10 2nd Baseman!

Hill’s overall slash line dropped in a big way to 205/271/394 even though his BB% (7.1) and K% (16.1) remained close to his career marks of BB% (6.7), K% (14.4)respectively. Last year Hill posted a .196 BABIP. His career BABIP before 2010 was .307! However this is not all due to bad luck as many have suggested. In 2010 Hill’s line drive rate was 10.6%, worst in all of baseball. His fly ball rate was 54.2%, 5th highest in baseball. If he can manage to level out his swing, his ratios should creep closer to his career marks of 18.5% LD/41.4% FB.

Since Vernon Wells has left town, Hill will be hitting out of the 5 spot in the Jays potent lineup with Rajai Davis and Yunel Escobar occupying the 1 & 2 spots.

When ranking Aaron Hill this year, think 2009 with power regression. Hill may finish the season as a top 5 2B. I will be drafting him!

2011 Projection: 281 AVG, 27 HR, 89 RBI, 79 R, 4 SB

This Season on 4th and Home…

MLB Team Previews

Predictions

Position Rankings

The “Remember When” Series

3 Up, 3 Down

Bounceback Candidates

Black Swans

Sleepers

Busts

…and much more, beginning February 7th.

Stay tuned.