Tag Archives: Trevor Cahill

2012 Fantasy Baseball Prospect Preview: Part 1

Well, its March, so time to start rolling out my 2012 top prospect list. Every year, highly regarded rookies with little to no previous MLB exposure are looked to as possible fantasy contributors for the upcoming season. It may not surprise anyone that, for the most part, first year players struggle to live up to expectations for a myriad of reasons: inexperience against MLB-type opponents, lack of roster space/position blocking, fatigue, regression at the high A level, team control issues, etc. But this doesn’t stop us in the fantasy world from dreaming that we will draft the next Jason Heyward or Ryan Braun or pick up the next Mike Stanton, Kevin Maas or Shane Spencer off of waivers (Go Yankees!) – and hopefully avoid the next Alex Gordon (pre-2011) or Brandon Wood.

I will go through my top 20 ‘impact prospects’ for the 2012 fantasy season in two installments. Obviously ‘impact’ is an amorphous term, and nothing is more debatable than a list of players who have little to no big league experience.  However, I will use some definitions to try to make ‘impact’ more concrete. For hitters: ‘impact’ means at least 130-150 ABs and production at or above a .330 wOBA, or weighted on base average (check out http://www.fangraphs.com for more on this and FIP, used below for pitchers). Why .330 wOBA? Given that .330 is around league average from year to year, if a rookie can produce at or above that number, we will consider them to be more or less helping your fantasy team, at least on a back up level. Around that number, a guy should be giving you decent counting stats. For pitchers, it gets a little more complicated.  For starters we will use: at least 80 IP, a mid 4 ERA, and a low 4 FIP, or Fielding Independent Pitching, which tries to take out some of the random outcomes out of a pitcher’s control once the ball leaves their hands.  For relievers: 25 IP, mid 3 era and FIP to match.  Now, I know most fantasy formats do not use wOBA or FIP as categories; they are still too exotic for most and fantasy games are more about counting stats anyway.  However, you can rest assured that a good wOBA/good FIP usually is a good indication of solid fantasy production. For the definition of prospect, we will hover around the standard rookie eligibility definition: around 130 or less at bats, or 50 innings or less pitched at the big league level.  Some of these guys have their names all but penciled in on big league rosters, some are just complete crapshoots; some are not as talented as others, but have a much better opportunity to play everyday; most of you will disagree with me, and probably half of these guys will end up having well below league average numbers (50% was my success rate from 2011).  Anyway, on to the list with #20-11; 10-1 will follow next week:

20. Wilin rosario, COL, C – Given that the Rockies signed Ramon Hernandez this off-season, it looks like Rosario is probably another year away from being the everyday catcher in Denver. However, Hernandez is 36, and he may break down behind the plate sooner rather than later, and most definitely will need a lot of rest. If Rosario puts up solid power numbers in the minors as expected, he could get the call and provide great power from the catcher slot (combined 40 HR in a little over 700 PA the last two years in AA) as a back up/utility player. He probably won’t help average-wise – most catchers don’t – but he makes for an intriguing monitoring situation for later in the year when you make your playoff run, or when you are thinking about stocking up on young talent in keepers.

19. Tyler Skaggs, ARI, SP – Skaggs has ripped through A and AA the past two years, and his K rate, ERA, and FIP have all gotten better each year. His walk rate has held steady in the mid to high 2’s/9, a nice bonus for such a young arm, and he’s left-handed to boot. He will probably start in AAA if he holds his own in ST, and looks to be a notch below fellow prospect teammate Trevor Bauer. If he dominates the minors again, I can see him cracking the rotation during the summer, or at least making some useful spot starts. I highly doubt Joe Saunders, Josh Collmenter, and/or Trevor Cahill will all last a full season with the D’backs.

18. Shelby Miller, STL, SP – Miller’s upside screams ace, but not in 2012. I just don’t see the Cards rushing their best prospect to the majors, even though he probably could do as well or better than Kyle McClellan, Kyle Lohse, or Jake Westbrook. Be that as it may, given his prowess in A-AA the past two years (sub 3 ERA/FIP, over 10 K/9, around 3 BB/9), I would not be surprised if he is a late season call-up to bolster the back of the rotation if St. Lou is making a playoff run. His rank is only this low due to lack of opportunity.

17. Trevor Bauer, ARI, SP – Bauer has made only 7 professional starts, across high A and AA in 2011, but that was because he spent 09-most of 11 at UCLA, where he K’ed 203 in 136 innings his last year there. In the small sample size he has in the pros, he dazzled with a 17 and 14 K/9 in A and AA respectively, though he did have control issues, with above a 4 BB/9. Still, this guy can pitch, and the D’Backs look like they will give him a shot in the spring. Even if he gets some polish in AAA as expected, Bauer has the upside to make an impact in 2012.

16. Brett Jackson, CHC, OF – Jackson turns 24 this summer, and looks to have made progress every year in the minors, culminating in a .297/.388/.551 line in 48 games in AAA in 2011. He can run (20 SBs in 115 games in 2011), he has patience at the plate (13% walk rate), and flashes some pop (20 HR). More importantly, given the Cubs’ lack of OF talent and likelihood of being in rebuilding mode, Jackson should get a good amount of reps and have himself a solid rookie campaign on the North Side.

15. Zack Cozart, CIN, SS – Cozart is a bit old for a prospect, clocking in at 26, but he only just had his first cup of coffee last fall, where he performed amazingly for a SS, albeit in just 38 PAs (.324/.324/.486). Cozart looks like the lead pony to grab the starting SS job in Cincy in 2012, and could be a great late round speculative pick, possibly good for a 70/10/60/10 .270 season. You definitely could do worse picking much earlier at this thin position.

14. Julio Teheran, ATL, SP – Though he didn’t light up the majors in his 19 IP last year, Teheran remains a top-notch pitching prospect, one who could crack Atlanta’s rotation out of ST due to Tim Hudson’s injury and an open competition for spots 4 and 5; I don’t think it will happen though, as Atlanta has other, older options in Brandon Beachy, Randall Delgado and Mike Minor, and will want to be extra careful with their future ace. Teheran had a very good 2011 otherwise (7.6 K/9, 3 BB/9, 2.55 ERA, 3.06 FIP), and could have a productive 2012 fantasy season as a summer add-on/spot starter.

13. Jarrod Parker, OAK, SP – Once the Diamondbacks top pitching prospect, and now a member of the A’s, Parker should finally arrive in the majors full-time after he proved in 2011 that he was fully recovered from Tommy John Surgery which cost him all of 2010. Parker pre-surgery showed very good strike out abilities (9 K/9), but has often struggled with control (around 3.5-4 BB/9). With the A’s 3-5 spots wide open due to injuries to Dallas Braden and Brett Anderson (and Bartolo Colon the #2 at this point), Parker could see some substantial work in the majors this year right off the bat. His pedigree suggests that work will produce a decent output.

12. Jacob Turner, DET, SP – Turner impressed Detroit so much in his three AAA starts in 2011 (10 K/9, 1.5 BB/9) that he got the call when they needed some starts in September. Alas, he did not fare well during his call-up, but I’ll chalk that up to the usual rookie shock, as I feel Turner has the skill set, home park, and offensive backing to give you some solid counting stats. Turner should have a legit shot to compete for the 4-5 spots out of ST, if the Tigers feel like giving up a year of team control. If not, look for him to join the team during the summer when Detroit should be tired of looking to Rick Porcello, Phil Coke, and a cast of also-rans to fill out the rotation. I give him the edge over Teheran because of better opportunity, and over Parker because of health.

11. Addison Reed, CWS, RP – Our first – and only – rookie reliever featured, Reed  exploded onto the scene in 2011, going from A, A+, AA, AAA to the majors all in one year. Along the way, his K/9 never fell below around 12, his BB/9 never rose above around 2.5, and his highest ERA was in his 7.1 IP in Chicago (3.68), mainly due to a crazy high BABIP of .474. Reed is big, throws hard, and has the classic closer make-up. Just don’t draft him expecting a 2012 version of Craig Kimbrel (you really shouldn’t draft any closer expecting Kimbrel-like numbers, the dude had a ridiculous 2011).


06.14.11 Box Score Breakdown: Fantasy MLB News and Notes

A great show last night. You have to listen to hear the crazy Killboy story. Too insane to believe!

Onto it!

4th and Home Player of the Day: Justin Verlander – 2-hit SHO, 12K…Verlander walked Brantley in the 7th to end the perfect game and then gave up a single to Cabrera in the 8th to end the no-no. Besides that, another dominating outing by Verlander.

The Bats:
Domonic Brown
– 2/4, 2 R, 2 HR, 2 RBI…The Rook is holding his own. I think he may explode this summer.

Jimmy Rollins – 2/5, 2 R, HR, 2 RBI…J-Roll needs to get going for owners and the Phillies.

Chase Utley – 2/3, R, HR, 2 RBI…I think he is just about BACK.

Shane Victorino – 3/5, 2 R…Look for him also to explode this summer when the Phillies offense starts clicking.

Brett Gardner – 3/4, 3 R, RBI, SB…Time for him to get going while Loverboy is on the DL.

Curtis Granderson – 2/4, 2 R, HR, 4 RBI…The HRs just keep on coming.

Nick Swisher – 2/3, 2 R, HR, RBI…Been a rough year so far for Swish.

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The Casual Sabermetrician – First Quarter 2011 analysis

Welcome back to the Casual Sabermetrician.  It’s hard to believe, but after this weekend we’ll be at the Quarter poll of the season with all teams playing around 40 games and most (healthy) starting pitchers having made 8 starts out of their 32-33 for the year.  This affords us a great excuse to look back on our pre-season exercise of looking at tERA vs. ERA to find out which pitchers are pitching above their heads and which have been unlucky so far.  For fantasy purposes this translates to who we can sell high on and conversely who we might be able to buy low on.

Again, our method involves extracting tERA and ERA stats from Fangraphs into a spreadsheet and creating a formula to view tERA-ERA.  They already have this for ERA-FIP, I would imagine them adding ERA-xFIP and ERA-tERA in the near future as I believe these are a much more telling stat when evaluating who is do for regression.
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05.09.11 Box Score Breakdown: Fantasy MLB News and Notes

A happy Mother’s Day out there to all of you Mexican mommies. Didn’t know Me-he-co had their own Mother’s Day…

4th and Home Player of the Day: Josh Willingham – 2/4, 2 R, HR, 5 RBI…Despite the .235 average, J-Willy has 6 HR and 22 RBI.

Here’s what else I saw:

The Bats:
Gaby Sanchez
– 3/4, R, HR, 3 RBI…Dirty is on fire of late. Seems like I just wrote about him. Oh wait…

Chris Coghlan – 3/4, R, RBI, BB, SB…Consistency would do him some good, but a nice line vs. the Phils.

Jimmy Rollins – 2/5, 2 R, HR, RBI…The power hasn’t been there, but his other numbers are up to par with the bounceback calls during the pre-season.

Victor Martinez – 3/4, 2 R, HR, 3 RBI, BB…Batting .409 since coming off the DL last week.

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04.07.11 Box Score Breakdown: Fantasy MLB News and Notes

Overhyped Mets “prospect” Lastings Milledge was designated for assignment by the ChiSox. It’s over.

Jon Lester and Fausto Carmona went head-to-head Thursday and although it might’ve seem lopsided on paper, they don’t play the game on paper! Each pitcher shut the other team down as Lester threw 7 shutout innings allowing just 3 hits and 2 walks while striking out 9 and My-my-my My Carmona threw 7 shutout innings allowing just 2 hits and 2 walks while striking out 4. Wait a tick. I just typed Carmona and 2 walks in the same sentence and I wasn’t talking about a single inning, but seven innings? Wow. As has always been the case with him, if he keeps the walks down his groundballin’ ways will keep the Indians in the game. The outing lowered Carmona’s ERA to (gulp) 9.00.

After going 0/8 in his first two games, Troy Tulowitzki has now gone 5/10 in his last three with a HR in each. Look out. Another home run binge!

Esmil Rogers shut the Pirates down, allowing just 5 baserunners and a run over 7.1 innings. He struck out 7 in the affair and looks to build on his success against the Mess next week. Rogers has K-potential, but has always had trouble keeping guys off base. Monitor.

Damnit why did I ignore Trevor Cahill round after round as he was just sitting there like the beat girl at a 5th grade dance? Cahill turned in another solid outing, shutting the Jays down over 8 innings, allowing just 3 baserunners and a run while punching out 7. Where these Ks coming from? He now has 15 in 12.2 innings. Zoinks!

A.J. Burnett moved to (2-0) after beating the Twins. Burnett wasn’t too mpressive, but got the job done allowing 8 baserunners and 2 runs in 6 innings while striking out 5. Of note is his 1.18 WHIP. If he can keep it south of 1.25 he should be quite valuable pitching for the Yanks.

Francisco Liriano was gross again. Putting way too many guys on base. WHIP now stands at 1.71.

Ryan Braun hit his 3rd HR. Now batting .391. Big year coming up for Ryan.

Roy Halladay was himself. He shut the Mess down over 7 innings allowing just 6 hits and a walk. He struck out 7. 0.69 ERA/0.92 WHIP. Shazam!

Placido Polanco was 2/5 with 4 RBI and is proving to be an asset in the 2-hole for the Phillies. He will score plenty of runs while he’s there. Cheap source of stats.

Chase Utley’s replacement and ex-Met, Wilson Valdez, went 4/4 with 3 runs and 3 RBI. Relax.

Edwin Jackson was again brilliant against the Rays. No, he didn’t no-hit them but he struck out 13 over 8 innings allowing just 4 hits, 1 run and a walk. Lifetime against the Rays, EJax is now 3-0/1.44/0.88/18. HA!

Josh Johnson seems to be alright. He shut the Nats down over 6 innings, allowing just 4 baserunners, 1 run and struck out 6.

Killin’ the Odds & the Regular Season

Welcome to Killin’ the Odds & the Regular Season! In the “Today’s Games” section, you will see my picks to win for the day. I will post either the “Money Line” or the “Run Line”. The money line is always a “straight up” bet which means your team will never need to win or lose by a certain amount. The money line odds represent what amount has to be wagered or what can be won. For example, if there is a minus sign (-) next to an amount, you have to wager that amount to win 100. If there is a plus sign (+) next to an amount, you will receive that amount for every 100 wagered. When you see a “Run Line”, that means a spread is involved. In Baseball, the spread is always 1.5 runs but you can find alternate run lines on some websites. When I post a run line of -1.5, that means our team must win by two runs. When you see a run line of +1.5, that means our team can lose by one run and still win the wager. Listen to our show from April 5th, 2011 for more explanation and tips.
 
Today’s Games (4/7/11)
 
 
Oakland Athletics (Even) @ Toronto Blue Jays (-120) My Pick: Blue Jays Money Line
With a price of -120, people are giving Trevor Cahill more respect than he deserves. He will not repeat 2011 but people are betting like he will. Cahill was also gave up 8 runs in 5 innings in his only start at the Rogers Centre in 2010. Jose Bautista probably won’t play but Ricky Romero has looked good thus far.
 
Atlanta Braves (-114) @ Milwaukee Brewers (-106) My Pick: Atlanta Braves Money Line
The Brewers have had trouble scoring runs as of late. Tommy Hanson was terrific in his only start at Miller Park Last year (8 IP, 0 ER, 8 K). Shaun Marcum wasn’t very sharp in his first start with the Brewers. It’s time to start picking on the Brewers before they heat up.
 
 
 
 Tuesday’s Results
 
 
Los Angeles Dodgers: LOSS -100
The Dodgers could not get anything going versus Jhoulys Chacin.
 
New York Yankees: LOSS -100
 Rafael Soriano just jumped from “Not Ranked” to “Number ONE” on my all-time hate list. 
 
Los Angeles Angels: WIN +87
I’m a huge Weaver fan and it looks like the Angels may now be able to close out some games!
 
Daily Total: -113
 
Brian “Killboy” Kilpatrick is currently up +568 imaginary dollars in 2011.
 
Any information provided by our company is for educational, informational and entertainment purposes ONLY. Use caution if you use our products and / or services and remember that all gambling carries risk and no liability is taken by 4thandhome.com.
Betting always involves a level of risk and you should never bet more than you can afford to lose. No guarantees are given as to the amount you will make from betting. Any liability from following any information given is completely waived by 4thandhome.com, and you are to understand that you follow it completely at your own risk.

 

Disagree? Light me up in the comments.

Box Score Breakdown: Fantasy MLB News and Notes from 04.01.11

The Phightins got off in phine phashion, not so much for nearly losing a Doc Halladay start, but for scoring three in the bottom of the ninth to beat the ‘stros. Roy Halladay struck out 6 over 6, giving up 5 hits and a run. Brett Myers didn’t record a strike out, but went 7 giving up just 3 hits and a run. Jimmy Rollins debuted in the 3-hole and recorded 2 hits, 2 runs and a stolen base. Chase who?

Fausto Carmona…got…ROCKED. 10 runs and 11 hits in 3 innings. If you started him, you lost ERA and WHIP this week. On the bright side, he K’d 5 and only walked 1.

“Say hello to my lil’ friend!” That’s what Adam Dunn said in his ChiSox debut, delivering a 2-run homer and 2-run double. 50 HR this year for Big Donkey, Killboy? You may be right. I may be crazy…

Carlos Santana‘s knee is fine. Love this guy. He’s gonna be a monster for years. Santana had 3 hits, 1 being a 2-run bomb.

Gordon Beckham had 3 hits and 3 runs in the 2-hole. He is going to score a lot of runs this year. A  lot.

Carlos Quentin had 3 hits and 5 RBI as he went yard.

My God…are we done with the Bears/Browns highlights yet?

Neil Walker hit a granny against the Cubbies. Why was he going so late?

Bucs #3 hitter Andrew McCutchen went yard and doubled. He’s good. I might email Brian everytime he gets a hit this year.

Ian Kinsler homers in his first at bat and then…strands 5 runners, going 0-4 the rest of the game. If you’ve ever owned him, you know he does this a lot. Makes you think you’re in for a monster night. Still, he’s healthy so enjoy it.

Nelson Cruz also looked healthy as he homered as well- and a walk to boot!

Jon Lester looked like he usually does in April. Few more starts and then barage your league’s Lester-owner with trade requests. Me no like Lester in April.

Carl Crawford went 0-4 with 3 K in his Sawx debut. He’s pressing!

Ublado Jimenez gave up 4 doubles and 2 homers. Ugh. Thanks, dude. One strike out? My #2 dropped a #2 on my WHIP.

Justin Upton homered. 29 more are-a-comin’.

Jose Bautista and Adam Lind homered. Think they can hit 70 between them this year? I do.

Ricky Romero looked solid giving up just 1 run over 6.1 innings, striking out 7 vs. the Twinkies.

As if the Mets could not push my buttons any more then they already have leading up to today, they were getting no-hit by Josh Johnson through 6 innings. Johnson didn’t last too much longer and was removed after just 93 pitches, giving up 2 runs to the Mess. If healthy, Johnson is gonna be stellar this year.

Hmm, David Price gave up 4 runs and 5 hits to Boog Powell and the O’s. Did I know this was coming?

Quick, get to the wire! Kila Ka’aihue hit a walk-off! Relax. He’s a Royal. He also struck out twice.

Mike Aviles is now 2-8 with a HR and SB thorugh 2 games. Who told you to grab this guy? Who!? 80/80 this year, baby! 40/40 is nothin’!

Ok, Matt Kemp is on a mission. Went to steal 2nd, Loney swung and tapped it to 3rd. Kemp rounded 2nd and advanced to 3rd as Loney was thrown out at 1st. Kemp later scored on a sac fly. Davey Lopes is doing wonders just after two games with the young stud.

Brandon Belt hit a 3-run blast off Chad Billingsley. He looks so skinny, but he powered it over the center field fence.

Jonathan Sanchez K’d 8 Dodgers, but his defense let him down and gave him a loss. The World Champs are now 0-2 to start the season.

Ichiro stole 2 bases against Kurt Suzuki as King Felix pitched the first CG of the season giving up just 2 runs on 5 hits while striking out 5.

Trevor Cahill‘s pitch count got him removed from the game after 4.2 innings, but not before K-ing 8. He took a ND as his bullpen (which I thought was one of the best) imploded.

2011 Fantasy Baseball “September Stars” Series: Daniel Hudson

This week we take a look at our first “September Star” pitcher: Daniel Hudson.

Hudson came over to the Diamondbacks in the trade that sent Edwin Jackson to the White Sox last season and started 14 games (11 for the DBacks) going:

7.9K/9…2.6BB/9…6.4H/9…2.45 ERA…1.00 WHIP

For comparison, Hudson’s minor league career included the following stats:

10.6K/9…2.5BB/9…6.9H/9…2.90 ERA…1.05 WHIP

In August and September, Hudson went 7-1/1.69/0.84/70 in 79+ innings. Before we go extrapolating this 24-year-old phenom into the No.1 Fantasy Pitcher for 2011, lets dig into his numbers a little bit…

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2011 American League West Previews: Athletics

Today’s Focus: OAKLAND ATHLETICS


2010 Record: 81-81 (2nd in Division; 8th Best Record in AL)

2006 was the last time Team Moneyball had a team that finished over .500. Since then, every GM has read and re-read that book. In 2010 the A’s finished at .500 and one would wonder how that happened. Gone are the days of the Bash Brothers, but now the Bay Area gets to enjoy Godzilla! Yeah, I’m sure the Bay Bridge is lovin’ that…

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The Casual Sabermetrician – a look at SPs

Welcome to the Casual Sabermetrician.  If you are anything like me, you’re interested in advanced baseball statistics but all the formulas and your lack of an advanced degree in mathematics leave your head spinning.  The good news is, these Saber stats are always being tweaked and new ones are always being invented, so it’s not too late to get in on the ground floor on some and to use this knowledge to your advantage on Draft Day.  Let’s dig in.

Our first example will be to look at starting pitching.  In most, if not all leagues, hitters are valued over pitchers.  One major reason is that pitchers are much less consistent and harder to predict than hitters.  Why is this?   It’s simple, once bat meets ball a lot of what happens next is out of the pitcher’s control.  The statistics we have to address this are grouped under the heading DIPS (Defense Independent Pitching Statistics), these have been around since 1999 and were invented by Voros McCracken.  If this sounds familiar, it’s because you read about it in Moneyball.  Stats that have been used the past decade include Defense-Independent Component ERA (DICE) and the more widely used Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) invented by Tango TigerThe Hardball Times has their own version of FIP, but it is Tango Tiger’s that is used on most sites, most notably Fangraphs.

But the stat I want to look at more closely in this post is tERA – True Runs Allowed (also known as TRA).  This is a much newer stat invented by Graham MacAree of Stat Corner.  It seeks to improve upon FIP and xFIP (Expected FIP) by taking into account the performance of balls in play.

From Stat Corner:

The hope for tRA then was to construct a metric which takes into account every action a pitcher is responsible for and turns those numbers into runs and outs based around a highly logical and transparent mathematical framework.

For fantasy purposes – how can we use tERA to help us in our upcoming draft?  By looking at the delta between ERA and tERA and looking for outliers.  This is a simple exercise and you can do it at home.  On FanGraphs – go to Leaderboards for Pitchers and select Advanced.  Export this chart to Excel.  Open the file and add a column and call it ERA-tERA.  Create a formula to subtract the tERA column from ERA and then sort.  Let’s see what stands out…

The Unlucky:

Justin Masterson (0.89); Kyle Davies (0.88); Chris Narveson (0.78); James Shields (0.78); Jeremy Bonderman (0.72)

The Lucky:

Clay Bucholz (-1.59); Trevor Cahill (-1.04); Tim Hudson (-1.03); Rodrigo Lopez (-1.01); Jaime Garcia (-0.93)

Let’s analyze the above.  Masterson looks to regress to the mean more than most but is useful only in the deepest or AL only leagues with his extreme BB/9 rate.  Davies is in the same boat as Masterson.  Narveson is interesting and could be a good sleeper pick in deep leagues on an improved Brewers team that is all in this year, he is going undrafted in most mockdrafts.  Shields is where this list gets interesting.  Big Game James has struggled since his and the Rays breakout season in ’08.  Shields has suffered from a lot of bad luck the past 2 seasons including an unsightly .341 BABIP in ’10, but his peripherals are all good – his K/BB ranked 10th in the majors in 2010.  The Rays don’t look to be contenders, but look for Shields to improve in 2011.  His current ADP is 160 (43rd SP) so he could also come as a big time bargain in later rounds.  Bonderman – eh, he’s undraftable.  Another pitcher of note is Zach Greinke – his delta is (0.66) and moving to the aforementioned Brewers and the  NL, it’s easy to imagine Zach rekindling his ’09 mastery.   His ADP is 47 (8th SP) so you might want to reach to ensure you get him, but if he slips to the 4th or 5th round in your draft you better pounce.

Buchholz’s delta jumps way off the page at a whopping -1.59 runs.  His 2010 peripherals were below league average so he is due for a major dose of reality in 2011.  He is being drafted 91st (25th SP) ahead of guys like Roy Oswalt and Shawn Marcum – I want no part of Buchholz’s return to reality and neither do you – let the uninformed over pay for him.  Trevor Cahill is another good young SP who is due for a major regression – his incredible league lowest .236 BABIP is just not sustainable.  He’s being drafted right after Buchholz – pass.  Hudson’s low K/9 rate and .249 BABIP also signal a regression in ’11.  At ADP 140 (38th) he’s not quite as risky but look at picking up Shields instead.  Lopez is undraftable, Garcia’s high walk rate is cause for concern and his impressive rookie campaign will yield to the inevitable sophomore slump, he’s only worth a late round flyer in deep or NL leagues.

I hope this first installment of the Causal Sabermetrician was helpful, I’ll see you in the next episode where we’ll turn to the offense.