Tag Archives: Vernon Wells

2011 Fantasy Baseball Hot & Cold W/E 4-10

Every Monday we will be bringing you the Top 3 hot and cold baseball players from around the major leagues. The twist, I’ll also be providing a buy or sell recommendation on the cold players to help you decide if this is a guy to target in a trade offer or someone you should cut if they’re clogging a bench spot, while on the other side giving you the sign on whether to sell high or buy the continued dominance.

For the last week, here are your Hot & Cold recommendations:

HOT

Paul Konerko

Last 7 games: .393 Avg, 5 R, 3 HR, 9 RBI, 0 SB

Call: Sell

Konerko will get you around 30 home runs and 100 RBI, but if an owner in your league is seeing over 40 homers and a .300+ batting average, sell high.

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Killin’ the Odds & A.L. Futures

Welcome to Killin’ the Odds & AL Futures! It’s real simple, I analyze odds to win the 2011 World Series and tell you who to take. Now on with it!

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2011 Fantasy Baseball Rankings: OUTFIELD

Ryan Braun or Carlos Gonzalez at #1? That was the debate, though one guy even ranked Carl Crawford as his #1. Madness!

Ryan Braun: Ready to tee off in 2011

And…Ryan Braun takes home our #1 OF ranking, but it was close. You could definitely make an argument for either, but the composite sided with the guy who has done it more than once before. You’ll notice our individual rankings are all over the place, showcasing our different views. When compiled, it’s a pretty safe list with hidden gems when compared to the latest ADP data. There is lots and lots of value late in the draft, so if you miss out on top-tier guys while stockpiling other positions you can always get a proven vet in the 30s and 40s.

Onto the Rankings…

RANK PLAYER Brian Mike Killboy Jesse Eric COMP
1 Ryan Braun – MIL 1 2 2 1 1 1.4
2 Carlos Gonzalez – COL 2 3 1 2 2 2
3 Carl Crawford – BOS 3 1 3 4 3 2.8
4 Josh Hamilton – TEX 5 5 4 5 4 4.6
5 Matt Holliday – STL 4 6 5 3 5 4.6
6 Shin-Soo Choo – CLE 6 10 6 6 8 7.2
7 Matt Kemp – LAD 7 4 7 18 6 8.4
8 Nelson Cruz – TEX 22 9 9 7 7 10.8
9 Andrew McCutchen – PIT 9 11 8 14 12 10.8
10 Hunter Pence – HOU 13 12 13 11 9 11.6
11 Jason Heyward – ATL 10 13 15 9 11 11.6
12 Andre Ethier – LAD 15 14 12 12 16 13.8
13 Justin Upton – ARI 8 8 11 32 10 13.8
14 Jose Bautista – TOR 17 22 10 10 13 14.4
15 Jacoby Ellsbury – BOS 19 7 18 26 15 17
16 Alex Rios – CHW 20 17 16 13 23 17.8
17 Ichiro Suzuki – SEA 12 41 14 8 14 17.8
18 Jayson Werth – WAS 11 15 27 19 17 17.8
19 Jay Bruce – CIN 14 16 19 34 18 20.2
20 Corey Hart – MIL 16 31 20 29 26 24.4
21 Shane Victorino – PHI 28 25 21 35 20 25.8
22 Aubrey Huff – SF 25 26 25 15 39 26
23 Delmon Young – MIN 21 18 28 42 24 26.6
24 Drew Stubbs – CIN 23 21 30 41 19 26.8
25 Nick Markakis – BAL 18 24 36 25 31 26.8
26 Mike Stanton – FLA 24 37 31 28 21 28.2
27 Chris Young – ARI 33 27 22 39 25 29.2
28 Torii Hunter – LAA 30 30 41 17 37 31
29 Nick Swisher – NYY 45 29 33 23 29 31.8
30 Martin Prado – ATL 26 28 32 52 22 32
31 Juan Pierre – CHW 36 32 39 21 34 32.4
32 Curtis Granderson – NYY 32 40 23 36 33 32.8
33 Brett Gardner – NYY 27 20 40 38 44 33.8
34 B.J. Upton – TB 41 38 17 58 27 36.2
35 Colby Rasmus – STL 40 23 29 28 36.2
36 Carlos Lee – HOU 50 43 24 27 40 36.8
37 Bobby Abreu – LAA 42 46 34 22 42 37.2
38 Vernon Wells – LAA 35 58 43 20 36 38.4
39 Adam Jones – BAL 37 33 46 40 38 38.8
40 Angel Pagan – NYM 34 36 45 45 46 41.2
41 Jason Bay – NYM 31 56 35 51 35 41.6
42 Jose Tabata – PIT 47 19 48 46 56 43.2
43 Ben Zobrist – TB 52 50 16 41 44
44 Grady Sizemore – CLE 39 42 51 32 45
45 Michael Cuddyer – MIN 53 47 53 24 51 45.6
46 Carlos Beltran – NYM 38 35 56 57 47 46.6
47 Luke Scott – BAL 60 57 26 44 48 47
48 Ryan Raburn – DET 29 48 37 47.2
49 Magglio Ordonez – DET 45 44 30 58 47.6
50 Michael Bourn – HOU 56 50 47 47 45 49
51 Carlos Quentin – CHW 43 38 43 49.2
52 Manny Ramirez – TB 48 44 42 59 57 50
53 Austin Jackson – DET 52 55 59 55 30 50.2
54 Andres Torres – SF 54 52 37 49 50.6
55 Rajai Davis – TOR 44 39 60 50 50.8
56 Denard Span – MIN 53 58 31 54 51.4
57 Coco Crisp – OAK 34 55 54.4
58 Alfonso Soriano – CHC 49 49 52 54.4
59 Desmond Jennings – TB 33 55.4
60 Ryan Ludwick – SD 51 55 49 55.4

 

JUSTIN UPTONUpton is coming off a year in which he took a considerable step backwards. Through his first 3 seasons in the big leagues he had consistently improved his statistics as his playing time increased, expect a bounce back this year. For more, continue reading (here).

JACOBY ELLSBURY Remember this guy?  He’s a season removed from stealing 70 bases, scoring 94 runs, and batting .301.  Ellsbury was a wasted pick for lot of fantasy owners last year, when he missed all but 18 games, but now he’s healthy and ready to go.  I’ve seen this guy ranked all over the place (including our individual rankings) but he has the potential to be a top 10 outfielder.  Don’t wait too long to grab him. .295/90/7/55/60

B.J. UPTON…Even though BJ Upton hit .237 last year, he still finished the season ranked as the 29th fantasy outfielder in Yahoo. His speed is too good to repeat his .304 BABIP and his career mark is .334.The 26 year old is fully healthy so his power should be back to stay. Other than Carl Crawford, he is the best candidate to go 20/40. .259/78/20/73/45

SLEEPER: JOSE TABATA…Most forget Jose Tabata was a touted Yankee prospect, but certainly remember his estranged wife. After his June call-up, Tabata went .321/53/3/31/14 in July/August/September. Extrapolate that and he goes .321/106/6/62/28 in a season. At only 22 he has plenty of time to develop into a double-digit HR hitter and the speed is real. Currently the #51 OF off the board. I have him at #19 with a projected 2011 line of .300/90/10/60/30.

BUST: MATT KEMP…Fantasy Managers have been waiting for the great Matt Kemp break out for the past couple seasons and I’m here to say they shouldn’t hold their breath.  His unsustainably high BABIP, high K% and low BB% really caught up to him in 2010.  He also forgot how to steal bases being caught almost half the time.  Questions about his desire and makeup all spell reasons to stay away as other managers continue to way over pay for Kemp taking him as early as #16 overall.  .278/85/25/85/25

2011 American League West Previews: Angels

Today’s Focus: LOS ANGELES ANGELS of ANAHEIM


2010 Record: 80-82 (3rd in Division; 10th Best Record in AL)

Since 2004, the Halos have won the American League West 5 times. 2010 was not one of those years. After registering 97 wins in 2009, they failed to break .500 for the first time since 2003. After Kendry “Gramatica” Morales went down like Frazier, the team lost all focus scoring 202 fewer runs than they did in 2009. They were hoping Dan Haren could save their season, but the Rangers proved to be for real…as did the A’s since they finished ahead of them as well. The Rally Monkey of 2002 seems like a distant memory, so perhaps 2011 is their year?

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American League East Previews – Blue Jays

Today’s focus: Toronto Blue Jays


First, the good news! You know how people always toss around terms like “immovable contract”. Well when you have team owners like Arte Moreno trying to make a splash, there is no such thing. This was proven beyond the shadow of a doubt when Toronto was able to unload Vernon Wells deal this offseason with a trade to the Angels. Alex Anthopolous has now catapulted to the top of my genius GM list. Between ridding the Alex Rios contract and now Wells, the Jays now have considerable financial flexibility in the future.

Other than that, I’m afraid there’s not a lot of positives. The Jays will continue to compete in a loaded American League East that’s been a 3 team race for several seasons now. They will still have their breakout star from last year in Jose Bautista, but counting on 50+ home runs again is probably a stretch.

Notable Losses Include: Vernon Wells, Shaun Marcum, Scott Downs, Brian Tallet, Kevin Gregg, John Buck and Lyle Overbay .

Notable Pick Ups: Frank Francisco, Juan Rivera, Chad Cordero, Brett Lawrie, John Rauch, Octavio Dotel, Carlos Villaneuva, Rajai Davis and Manager John Farrell

Not exactly a who’s who list in baseball on the pick up side, but some serviceable players. While the team has been able to build up the farm system and add financial flexibility, realistically they are looking at 2012 before they could truly be competitive. I see no more then a .500 team at this point.

2011 Fantasy Baseball Sleeper: Aaron Hill

Has everyone forgotten the fact that this guy is one year removed from a 36 HR season? In some mock drafts, I’ve seen Hill taken outside of the top 10 2nd Baseman!

Hill’s overall slash line dropped in a big way to 205/271/394 even though his BB% (7.1) and K% (16.1) remained close to his career marks of BB% (6.7), K% (14.4)respectively. Last year Hill posted a .196 BABIP. His career BABIP before 2010 was .307! However this is not all due to bad luck as many have suggested. In 2010 Hill’s line drive rate was 10.6%, worst in all of baseball. His fly ball rate was 54.2%, 5th highest in baseball. If he can manage to level out his swing, his ratios should creep closer to his career marks of 18.5% LD/41.4% FB.

Since Vernon Wells has left town, Hill will be hitting out of the 5 spot in the Jays potent lineup with Rajai Davis and Yunel Escobar occupying the 1 & 2 spots.

When ranking Aaron Hill this year, think 2009 with power regression. Hill may finish the season as a top 5 2B. I will be drafting him!

2011 Projection: 281 AVG, 27 HR, 89 RBI, 79 R, 4 SB