Tag Archives: Vladimir Guerrero

04.26.11 Box Score Breakdown: Fantasy MLB News and Notes

The Bats:
Wilson Ramos – 3/4, 2 R, 2 HR, 3 RBI…Former Twins’ catching prospect now hitting .378 for the Nats.

Grady Sizemore – 3/4, 2 R, HR, 2 RBI…Looking healthy as ever. Average now at .406.

Shin-Soo Choo – 2/4, R, HR, 4 RBI, SB…Filling up the box score. Mentioned him briefly on last night’s show.

Melky Cabrera – 3/4, 2 R, HR, 2 RBI, BB, SB…Another box-score filler-upper!

Paul Konerko – 2/5, R, HR, 2 RBI…6 HR and 19 RBI now.

Brent Lillibridge – 1/1, R…Made b2b amazing defensive plays to close the game out for the ChiSox. He should’ve gotten the save in lieu of Santos.

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04.20.11 Box Score Breakdown: Fantasy MLB News and Notes

Of note, Mitchell Boggs and Drew Storen each converted save opportunities and Storen relieved Burnett in the 8th. Need a closer? Pounce.

Jed Lowrie – 2/4, R, HR, 2 RBI…Oops, he did it again. Another ding dong. Guy is en fuego! You have to pick this guy up. In most leagues he is 2B/SS-eligible.

Clay Buchholz – 5.1 IP, 6 H, ER, 2:4…Not great, but owners will take it. I still think you have to sell this guy.

Gio Gonzalez – 6 IP, 8 H, 4 ER, 9:1…Oh!!!! His ERA has finally eclipsed his WHIP. Look at that, just one walk.

Rick Porcello – 6.2 IP, 4 H, ER, 6:1…He did this against SEA so don’t go dropping anyone for him, unless it’s Bedard who he beat.

Wade Davis – 7 IP, 6 H, ER, 2:2…As mentioned on the air, I like Davis but his drop in K rate is worrisome. If he has to rely on his defense and praying his flyballs don’t leave the yard, he’ll experience some correction. Nice, Jesse!

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2011 Fantasy Baseball Rankings: DESIGNATED HITTER

Short and sweet, here are our DH rankings…

RANK PLAYER Brian Mike Killboy Jesse Eric COMP
1 Adam Dunn 1 1 1 1 1 1
2 Vladimir Guerrero 2 2 2 2 2 2
3 Michael Young 3 3 3 3 3 3
4 David Ortiz 4 5 4 5 5 4.6
5 Adam Lind 4 5 4 4 4.6

2011 Fantasy Baseball Sleeper: Derrek Lee

Derrek Lee had a down year in 2010. Lee’s 19 home runs marked his lowest total since 1998 (min. 250 PA). His 80 runs were his lowest total since 2000. His 80 RBI were his lowest total since 2001.

I suppose saying he had a “down year” is a bit of an understatement. From 2007-2009 Lee averaged 26 home runs, 92 runs, 94 RBI, .304 AVG and a .340 BABIP. So what gives?

A closer look at Derrek Lee’s peripherals suggests serious unluckiness. Lee’s 2010 BABIP of .309 is his lowest since 2004 and doesn’t match his .322 career mark. The huge dip in his BABIP doesn’t jive with his 22.5 percent line-drive rate and career-low 1.3 percent infield fly-ball rate. All of Lee’s other peripherals are fairly similar to his career.

The Orioles offense looks very strong for 2011. Lee will be batting third behind Brian Roberts and Nick Markakis who get on base at a decent clip. Vladimir Guerrero, Luke Scott and Mark Reynolds will be batting behind him. Lee is hitting in a much-improved lineup and looks to have the perfect setup. Derrek Lee will have boatloads of opportunities to score and drive in runs.

Camden Yards has a 126 home run index for right-handed hitters. Compare that to Turner Field (92) and Wrigley Field (102).

Derrek Lee’s current ADP is 273. He is being taken after Adam Lind (182.1), Adam LaRoche (182.6), Carlos Pena (197.3), Gabby Sanchez (210.9) and Ike Davis (228.9). Adam LaRoche put up the best line of the five listed with .261/75/25/100. Those numbers are certainly obtainable.

It’s no guarantee that Lee will outperform all these guys but, the value is certainly there. Why even waste a pick on Paul Konerko (70.8), Billy Butler (84.1) or Aubrey Huff (107.2) when you can draft Derrek Lee 140-185 picks later?

2011 Projection: .291 AVG, 85 R, 27 HR, 93 RBI, 1 SB

2011 Fantasy Baseball Sleeper: Luke Scott

Why all the hate on Luke Scott?

All of his 2010 stats are in-line with his career numbers, he has improved every year with the Orioles, he finished the 2010 fantasy season with a 115 ranking and he is only 32 years old. 

Yet for some reason, he still holds an ADP of 341 and a Yahoo ranking of 209. 

Let’s take a look at what he has done with his time in Baltimore:

Year HR BB% ISO OPS wOBA BABIP LD% HR/FB
2008 23 9.9% .215 .807 .343 .280 17.1% 14%
2009 25 10.9% .229 .828 .355 .283 17.1% 16.7%
2010 27 11.4% .251 .902 .387 .304 18.8% 18.6%

 

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Every year he has improved while registering no more than 475 AB. Imagine what he would do with 550 AB in an upgraded lineup.

The spike in BABIP is actually in line with his career BABIP (.300) and can be justified by his increased LD percent.

Since Luke Scott is a left-handed hitter, he will be cemented in the five spot, splitting up Baltimore’s right-handed hitters.

The middle of the order should look like this:

  • Three: Derrek Lee (R)
  • Four: Vladimir Guerrero (R)
  • Five: Luke Scott (L)
  • Six: Mark Reynolds (R)
  • Seven: Adam Jones (R)

This is great company if you ask me. He should get plenty of RBI opportunities and score plenty of runs.

Luke Scott is a very easy player to manage fantasy-wise. When he is hot, throw him in your UTIL spot and enjoy the ride. When he’s cold, spot start him versus right-handers, at home, at night or on grass.

See chart below:

Split AB HR AVG OBP SLG OPS
RHP 347 20 .297 .385 .550 .935
Home 228 19 .338 .419 .671 1.091
Night 322 20 .295 .378 .550 .928
Grass 397 24 .292 .369 .547 .916

 

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Luke Scott has always been an undrafted “wait and see” waiver wire type guy. Things will change after this year.

2011 Projection: 520 AB, .277 AVG, 29 HR, 85 RBI, 79 R, 2 SB

2011 American League West Previews: Rangers

Today’s Focus: TEXAS RANGERS


2010 Record: 90-72 (AL Champion; Division Champ; 4th Best Record in AL)

Last season ended with a 5-game World Series loss to the San Francisco Giants. Not bad for a once dazed-and-confused team out of Spring Training that saw Josh Hamilton fall off the wagon (or is it on the wagon?) and Manager Ron Washington test positive for cocaine. Despite the adversity, Washington finished 2nd in AL Manager of the Year Voting and Hamilton won his first MVP Award even after missing much of September.

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American League East Previews – Orioles

Today’s focus: Baltimore Orioles


To all the other teams in the American League East, having the Orioles in the division has made life much easier the last few years. Never a need to worry about being in the basement when you’ve got good old Baltimore to fill the cellar for you. The Orioles find themselves coming off three years in a row at the bottom of the pile and amazingly 13 losing seasons in a row.

Baltimore has stayed out of the free for all signings for the last several off seasons and focused on developing talent from within. Players such as Matt Wieters, Nick Markakis, Jake Arrieta and Brian Matuzs are considered high ceiling guys. This offseason however, they revamped the left side of their infield by bringing in JJ Hardy and Mark Reynolds, inserted a veteran presence into their rotation with Justin Duchscherer, added first baseman Derrek Lee and DH Vladimir Guerrero . Further development of their young pitchers, many of whom were at one time rated top prospects by Baseball America, and continued growth of their developing players should allow for an improved season. The addition of Buck Showalter as manager has reinvigorated this group and has them once again believing in their ability to win.

Notable Losses Include: Kevin Millwood, Julio Lugo, Ty Wigginton, Corey Patterson, David Hernandez, Matt Albers

Notable Pick Ups: Derrek Lee, JJ Hardy, Mark Reynolds, Kevin Gregg, Brendan Harris, Justin Duchscherer, Vladimir Guerrero

At this point the O’s have picked up some nice infield help, have a good/potentially very good young pitching staff, a solid clean up hitter with the addition of Vlad, and a positive outlook with Showalter at the helm. I’ll go out on a limb here and say this team breaks .500 and ends their streak of last place finishes in the division this season.

Old Bay Shuffle: The Fallout

Brad Mangin - MLB Photos via Getty Images

3 teams. 3 years.  At some point, someone’s gonna be left holding the bag that once contained Vlad the Impaler.

BALTIMORE:

Assuming Vladimir Guerrero stays healthy for majority of the season, he has the ability to produce. He turns 36 in a few days, so at some point he’ll start to run on E. Baltimore took a shot, outbid themselves by about 3-mil, and now has a very underrated lineup that is pretty legit. Hope for the best!

Luke Scott will now move to LF and his value remains the same, although many believe it’s easier to “see the ball” when you actually play and don’t sit on your arse for most of the night; the ole Frank Thomas syndrome.

Felix Pie is now on the bench. In deep-deep leagues he’ll have value as soon as one of Vlad’s knees falls off.

In a signing with much less fanfare, and obviously not important for us to blog about sooner, Justin Duchscherer will be slotted in most probably as the O’s #4.  I’ll be the first to admit, me likes me some DUKE-shur and for the price? Tasty. You’ll remember Justin most for breaking 3 of his 11 hips doing the “Moneyball Dance.” Anyway, I am buying for the back-end of my rotation – solid peripherals.

Chris Tillman and Jake Arrieta will battle it out in Spring Training to determine the O’s #5 starter, otherwise known as the “O’s Starter Most Likely to be Beat like a Red-Headed Step-Child by the Yankees and Sawx.”