Tag Archives: Zach Britton

The Casual Sabermetrician – First Half 2011 analysis

Welcome back to the Casual Sabermetrician.  It’s July, Summer is in full swing, and we’re at the half way point of the season.  We again look back on our pre-season exercise  and First Quarter Analysis of looking at tERA vs. ERA to find out which pitchers are pitching above their heads and which have been unlucky so far.  For fantasy purposes this translates to who we can sell high on and conversely who we might be able to buy low on.

Again, our method involves extracting tERA and ERA stats from Fangraphs into a spreadsheet and creating a formula to view tERA-ERA.  We can also look and see if the guys we looked at 7 weeks ago have regressed to the mean or not.
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Fantasy MLB Spot Starting: 04.26.11

Happy Monday, welcome to Spot Starting.

For games on Tuesday April 26th these selected pitchers might be had in your league (less than 50% owned in Yahoo! or ESPN) with percent owned Yahoo/ESPN, (team), and opponent:

Zach Britton 47% / 55% (BAL) vs. BOS
Chris Young 23% / 7% (NYM) @ WAS
Wade Davis 17% / 43% (TB) @ MIN
Brandon McCarthy 17% /21% (OAK) @ LAA
Bud Norris 17% / 3% (HOU) vs. StL
Mike Leake 7% / 6% (CIN) @ MIL

My Pick: Brandon McCarthy at Angels

Alternate: Bud Norris vs. Cardinals

Deep League Special: Mike Leake @ Brewers

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Fantasy MLB Spot Starting: 04.20.11

Well all good things must come to an end, and our 3 game streak of good picks did so last night with Travis Wood.  But at least I didn’t have any money on it, right Killboy?

For games on Wednesday April 20th these selected pitchers might be had in your league (less than 50% owned in Yahoo! or ESPN) with percent owned Yahoo/ESPN, (team), and opponent:

Chris Narveson 45%/44% (MIL) @ PHL

Wade Davis 16%/51% (TB) vs. ChW

R.A. Dickey 25%/12% (NYM) vs. HOU

Erik Bedard 11%/4% (SEA) vs. DET

Bud Norris 11%/3% (HOU) @ NYM

Jon Garland 8% / 5% (LAD) vs. ATL

Charlie Morton 4%/2.5% (PIT) @ FLA

Bartolo Colon 3% / 0.4% (NYY) @ TOR

My Pick: Wade Davis vs. White Sox

Alternate: R.A. Dickey vs. Astros

Deep League Special: Bartolo Colon at Blue Jays

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04.09.11 Box Score Breakdown: Fantasy MLB News and Notes

A full slate of great games on the second Saturday of the season including a Doubleheader in Baltimore and a suspended game in San Diego. Kudos to the schedule makers for all the great divisional rivalries right off the bat – none better than Yankees-Red Sox which always has a playoff atmosphere and tons of fantasy implications. The Red Sox were desperate to build on Friday’s first win, but it was not to be as the Yanks prevailed 9-4. Not to be outdone, the Phillies hot bats picked right back up after Friday’s loss to crush their chief rival Braves 10-2. The Rangers were blanked in the opener by the O’s but then turned around and spanked them in the night cap 13-1. And then we had A’s at Twins – wow, what a slug fest as the A’s prevail 1-0 behind Gio. Neither of these teams can hit their way out of a wet paper bag. The Rays nightmare April continues as they dropped to 1-7 reminiscent of their pre-2008 dominance. The Giants Miguel Tejada walked off on the Cardinals to turn a 2-1 deficit into a 3-2 win.
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Killin’ the Odds & the Regular Season

Welcome to Killin’ the Odds & the Regular Season! In the “Today’s Games” section, you will see my picks to win for the day. I will post either the “Money Line” or the “Run Line”. The money line is always a “straight up” bet which means your team will never need to win or lose by a specific amount of runs. The money line odds represent what amount has to be wagered or what can be won. For example, if there is a minus sign (-) next to an amount, you have to wager that amount to win 100. If there is a plus sign (+) next to an amount, you will receive that amount for every 100 wagered. When you see a “Run Line”, that means a spread is involved. In Baseball, the spread is always 1.5 runs but you can find alternate run lines on some websites. When I post a run line of -1.5, that means our team must win by two runs. When you see a run line of +1.5, that means our team can lose by one run and still win the wager. Listen to our show from April 5th, 2011 for more explanation and tips.
 
Today’s Games (4/9/11)
 
New York Yankees (+134) @ Boston Red Sox (-144) My Pick: New York Yankees Money Line  +134
I’m not a huge Buchholz fan and +134 straight up for the Yankees is just too good. Cano, Jeter, A Rod and Teixeira are hitting a combined .388 with 3 home runs off of Buchholz.
 
(Game 1) Texas Rangers (-113) @ Baltimore Orioles (+103) My Pick: Texas Rangers Money Line -113
With injuries to JJ Hardy and Brian Roberts, the Orioles are a little dinged up at the moment. Since this is the first game of a double-header, Showalter will need to keep Zach Britton in the game as long as possible so he doesn’t run out of relief pitchers.
 
St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants (Over/Under 6.5) My Pick: Over -120
It’s rare to see an over/under as low as 6.5 runs. As good as Jamie Garcia was last year, he was bad on the road with a 3.82 ERA and a 1.51 WHIP. Matt Cain has had struggles with St. Louis in his career. In 5 starts he is sporting a 4.71 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP. On top of all this, Brian Wilson and Ryan Franklin have been terrible!
 
 
Thursday’s Results
 
Toronto Blue Jays: LOSS -100
 Why did Romero have to leave the game?!?!
 
Atlanta Braves: LOSS -100
Hanson was a disappointment again. Only three strikeouts in two starts?
 
Daily Total: -200
 
Brian “Killboy” Kilpatrick is currently up +368 imaginary dollars in 2011.
 
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04.03.11 Box Score Breakdown: Fantasy MLB News and Notes

Ian Kinsler, Nelson Cruz, and Mark Teixeira all went yard again. That makes 3 in 3 games for each of them.

Miguel Cabrera, Jorge Posada, Howie Kendrick (3 in 4 games) and sleeper catcher Ryan Hanigan each belted two home runs.

Brennan Boesch went 4-4 with a HR and 4 RBI.

Max Scherzer and Phil Hughes both looked terrible giving up 6 home runs between them. Better days are ahead for Scherzer, but Hughes’ velocity was down. Monitor him.

Matt Harrison shut the Sawx down, striking out 8 over 7 innings allowing 7 base runners and one run.

Javier Vazquez, welcome to the American Lea….wait a tick. Ok, so league matters no more to Vazquez. His velocity scared me off in the pre-season, so I wouldn’t go near him in drafts and now it’s still around where he was for the Yanks. Owners be scared. Vazquez was lit up by the AAAA Mets lineup, serving up 2 homers and 5 walks in 2.1 innings.

R.A. Dickey shut down the Fish over 6 innings, allowing 8 base runners and striking out 7.

The ChiSox offered John Danks no run support as he lost to the Tribe. Turned in a great outing nonetheless, giving up just 2 runs on 6 hits while K-ing 8.

Tim Hudson shut the Nats down going 7 strong allowing only 3 hits while striking out 5.

Roy Oswalt beat his old team striking out 6, allowing 2 runs on 5 hits.

Ryan Howard stayed hot going 3-5 with a home run and 4 RBI.

Rookie Zach Britton was great in his first MLB start for the O’s, striking out 6 Rays in 6 innings and giving up just 1 run on 3 hits. Speculative grab!

Jaime Garcia was masterful against the Padres, shutting them out and allowing just 6 base runners while striking out 9. I do not think this will be the norm, but if you have him you’ll take it.

Starlin Castro went 3-4 and is now hitting .615. He will hit .300, but he needs more counting stats to be elite.

Bobby Abreu reached base SEVEN times, going 5-5 with 2 BB and a HR. Wow. Didn’t think the old man had it in ’em!

Gio Gonzalez shut the M’s down, although he did allow 6 hits and 4 walks in 7 innings. Is it possible he finishes 2011 with an ERA lower than his WHIP?

EDIT…

Disbaled List: Evan Longoria, Jair Jurrjens, and Brian Matusz were all placed on the 15-day DL. Longoria will be out three weeks with a strained oblique. Matusz will be sidelined at LEAST three weeks, maybe six, with a strained intercostal muscle. Jurrjens (side) was also placed on the 15-day DL, but is expected to make his debut on April 16th.

2011 Fantasy Baseball Prospect Preview: Part 1

8 home runs in a month? Coming right up (AP Photo/John Dunn)

Every year, highly regarded prospects with little to no previous MLB exposure are hyped as possible fantasy studs for the upcoming season.  It may not surprise anyone that, for the most part, first year players struggle to live up to expectations for a myriad of reasons: injury, lack of roster space/position blocking, regression at the high A level, financial reasons (read: arbitration eligibility deferral).  But this doesn’t stop us in the fantasy world from dreaming that we will draft the next Jason Heyward or Ryan Braun or pick up the next Mike Stanton, Kevin Maas or Shane Spencer off of waivers (Yes, I am a Yankee fan; I am enlightened) – and hopefully avoid the next Alex Gordon or Brandon Wood.

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