Fantasy MLB Spot Starting: 04.16.11

Welcome to our 2nd addition of  Spot Starting, if you missed it yesterday read here for the explanation of how this works.  Let’s get right into it shall we…

For games on Saturday April 16th these selected pitchers might be had in your league (less than 50% owned in Yahoo) with percent owned, team, and opponent:

Jeremy Guthrie 48% (BAL) @ CLE

Jair Jurrjens 35% (ATL) vs. NYM

Anibal Sanchez 33% (FLA) @ PHL

Kyle McClellan 32% (STL) @ LAD

Derek Holland 30% (TEX) @ NYY

Scott Baker 23% (MIN) @ TB

Dallas Braden 19% (OAK) vs. DET

My Pick: Scott Baker at the Rays

Alternate: Kyle McClellan at the Dodgers

You might think Guthrie is the clear choice, and maybe he is, but at 48% owned he may only be available in very shallow leagues.  I also don’t like his peripherals – he is giving up a TON of flyballs but only 1 HR so far (4.5% which is less than half his career rate).  So far his control has been good, but when he starts walking guys and those flyballs start to land on the wrong side of the fence I’d rather not be there.

My pick today is Scott Baker and his 9K/9 rate and 1.01 WHIP lifetime against the Rays.  In 2010 he was even better – 15 IP 1-0 15Ks, 0.60 ERA, 0.67 WHIP, .167 BAA.    Oh and the Rays aren’t hitting a lick yet this year – last in MLB at .204.   Yes Please.

McClellan, the converted reliever could be a good play in your flex or RP slot to pick up an extra start this week.  He’s put up fine numbers in 10 relief appearances against the Dodgers and is coming off two pretty good starts so far this season.  He allows a lot of base runners though, so if you need to keep your WHIP down, he might not be the right guy for you.

My alternate would be Jair Jurrjens who has absolutely owned the Mets in his career, but as I said yesterday, I can’t recommend a guy in his first start off the DL.

Mr. Holland’s opus includes scary bad career numbers vs. the Bronx Bombers as are Dallas ‘Stay off my Mound’ Braden’s vs. the Tigers and Dirty Sanchez vs the Phils.