Killin’ the Odds & the Regular Season

Welcome back to Killin’ the Odds & the Regular Season! In the “Today’s Games” section, you will see my picks to win for the day. I will post either the “Money Line” or the “Run Line”. The money line is always a “straight up” bet which means your team will never need to win or lose by a specific amount of runs. The money line odds represent what amount has to be wagered or what can be won. For example, if there is a minus sign (-) next to an amount, you have to wager that amount to win 100. If there is a plus sign (+) next to an amount, you will receive that amount for every 100 wagered. When you see a “Run Line”, that means a spread is involved. In Baseball, the spread is always 1.5 runs but you can find alternate run lines on some websites. When I post a run line of -1.5, that means our team must win by two runs. When you see a run line of +1.5, that means our team can lose by one run and still win the wager. Listen to our show from April 5th, 2011 for more explanation and tips.

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Fantasy MLB Spot Starting: 06.23.11

Welcome back to Spot Starting.

For games on Friday June 24th these selected pitchers might be had in your league (less than 50% owned in Yahoo! or ESPN) with percent owned Yahoo/ESPN, (team), and opponent:

Tim Stauffer 42% / 15% (SD) vs. ATL

Edinson Volquez 39% / 36% (CIN) @ BAL

Edwin Jackson 37% / 14% (CWS) vs. WAS

Carlos Carrasco 33% /32 % (CLE) @ SF

Matt Harrison 32% / 15% (TEX) vs. NYM

Randy Wolf 30% / 31% (MIL) vs. MIN

Paul Maholm 8% / 2% (PIT) vs. BOS

Vance Worley 2% / 1% (PHL) vs. OAK

2011 Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire Gems: National League

Angel Pagan, OF New York Mets ( 45 percent owned in Yahoo, 74.8 percent in ESPN)

Current Stat Line: .242 AVG / 16 R / 1 HR / 13 RBI / 9 SB

Pagan’s season couldn’t have started out much worse. He started the year hitting .159 AVG through April 21st then suffered an oblique injury that caused him to miss more than a month. It seems like the time off just may have been what he needed. Since his return he has hit .339 AVG, 9 R, 7 RBI, 5 SB in 15 games. Right now he is hitting in the five-spot but a move to leadoff is possible if the Mets move Jose Reyes.

Projection: .275 AVG / 53 R / 7 HR / 47 RBI / 25 SB

Todd Helton, 1B Colorado Rockies ( 41 percent owned in Yahoo, 61.4 percent in ESPN)

Current Stat Line: .322 AVG / 28 R / 8 HR / 28 RBI / 0 SB

Todd Helton seems to be having a bounce back year. He has been slowed the past few years with injuries to his back but when he has been in the lineup, he has produced. As recently as ’09 he went .329 AVG, 79 R, 15 HR, 86 RBI. Helton has never been the “sexy” pick but I can’t understand this ownership level.

Projection: .318 AVG / 70 R / 17 HR / 72 RBI / 0 SB

Anthony Rizzo, 1B San Diego Padres ( 23 percent owned in Yahoo, 40.5 percent in ESPN)

Current Stat Line: .429 AVG / 2 R / 1 HR / 1 RBI / 0 SB

Before getting the call to San Diego, Rizzo was crushing the PCL. He put up a line of .365 AVG, 42 R, 16 HR, 63 RBI prior to the call. For those of you who don’t know, the PCL is extremely hitter friendly and Petco Park is the worst for left-handed batters. Rizzo is here to be the Padres 1B everyday.

Projection: .255 AVG / 37 R / 11 HR / 40 RBI / 2 SB

Dee Gordon, SS Los Angeles Dodgers ( 15 percent owned in Yahoo)

Current Stat Line: .304 AVG / 4 R / 0 HR / 0 RBI / 2 SB

Dee Gordon has stepped in nicely as the everyday SS and leadoff hitter for the Dodgers. He doesn’t project as a power threat but he has stolen 22 bases in the minors this year. The team does not have any better options because Furcal has been out since June 4 with an oblique injury.

Projection: .279 AVG / 50 R / 1 HR / 20 RBI / 26 SB

Tim Stauffer, SP San Diego Padres ( 39 percent owned in Yahoo, 17.8 percent in ESPN)

Current Stat Line: 2 W / 4 L / 63 K / 3.58 ERA / 1.31 WHIP

Tim Stauffer has pitched better than what his surface numbers would indicate. He currently owns a 7.27 K/9 and 2.31 BB/9 to go along with a xFIP of 3.07. He looked stellar against the Rockies and he gets the Nationals today so get him while you can!

Projection: 9 W / 10 L / 150 K / 3.50 ERA / 1.30 WHIP

Fantasy MLB Spot Starting: 05.17.11

Welcome to another week of Spot Starting!  Every week of picks should start off this easy as you’ll see below.

For games on Tuesday May 17th these selected pitchers might be had in your league (less than 50% owned in Yahoo! or ESPN) with percent owned Yahoo/ESPN, (team), and opponent:

Jordan Zimmermann 49% / 51% (WAS) vs. PIT

Tim Stauffer 39% / 7% (SD) @ ARI

John Lackey 30% / 16% (BOS) vs. BAL

Randy Wolf 28% / 26% (MIL) @ LAD

Matt Harrison 26% / 13% (TEX) @ CWS

Rick Porcello 10% / 11% (DET) vs. TOR

Charlie Morton 8% / 8% (PIT) @ WAS

Fantasy MLB Spot Starting: 05.13.11

Welcome back to Spot Starting. Let’s see if we can find a Jason for our Friday the 13th spot start and not a victim.

For games on Friday May 13th these selected pitchers might be had in your league (less than 50% owned in Yahoo! or ESPN) with percent owned Yahoo/ESPN, (team), and opponent:

Carl Pavano 28% /  8% (MIN) vs. TOR

Bartolo Colon 28% / 27% (NYY) vs. BOS

Fausto Carmona 26% /25 % (CLE) vs. SEA

Jeremy Guthrie 24% / 9% (BAL) @ TB

Tom Gorzelanny 14% / 8% (WAS) vs. FLA

Brandon McCarthy 14% / 10% (OAK) vs CWS

Phil Humber 10% / 7% (CWS) @ OAK

Fantasy MLB Spot Starting: 05.11.11

Welcome back to Spot Starting.

For games on Wednesday May 11th these selected pitchers might be had in your league (less than 50% owned in Yahoo! or ESPN) with percent owned Yahoo/ESPN, (team), and opponent:

Randy Wolf 45% / 61% (MIL) vs. SD

Tim Stauffer 40% / 10% (SD) @ MIL

John Lackey 36% / 21% (BOS) @ TOR

Scott Baker  34% /  19% (MIN) vs. DET

Matt Harrison 30% / 17% (TEX) vs. OAK

Bruce Chen 12% / 8% (KC) @ NYY

Jonathon Niese 9% / 1% (NYM) @ COL

Jake Westbrook 3% /2% (StL) @ ChC

Fantasy MLB Spot Starting: 05.06.11

Welcome to Spot Starting.  As the bigger names continue to pitch gems let’s keep digging for those waiver wire pick ups of names that have fallen off your radar.  Some of the go to names we’ve had the past couple weeks are now above 50% so we have to keep digging deeper, some like Scott Baker continue to be there for us.

For games on Friday May 6th these selected pitchers might be had in your league (less than 50% owned in Yahoo! or ESPN) with percent owned Yahoo/ESPN, (team), and opponent:

Matt Harrison 39% / 29% (TEX) vs. NYY

Tim Stauffer 37% / 5% (SD) vs. ARI

Scott Baker 31% / 17% (MIN) @ BOS

Daisuke Matsuzaka 21% / 17% (BOS) vs. MIN

Jonathon Niese 9% / 1% (NYM) vs. LAD

Phil Humber 6% / 4% (CWS) @ SEA

My Pick: Tim Stauffer vs. D Backs

Alternate: Scott Baker vs. Red Sox

Deep League Special: Phil Humber

I’ve picked Baker in his past 3 starts and he has not disappointed giving us a line of 1-0 20.1 IP, 16 H, 3 ER, 17 K, 3 BB 1.33 ERA, 0.93 WHIP.  He’s the clear choice then, right?  Not so fast. 

Stauffer is on a mini tear lately and has great lifetime numbers against the D Backs, albeit only 1 start, but adding in the relief appearances he has 20 IP against them with 17Ks and a 1.80 ERA.  His peripherals are right in line if not even more encouraging (.311 BABIP, 2.66 FIP, 3.10 xFIP).  He is an extreme GB pitcher right now and it’s helping him pitch quality games.  The D Backs rely on home runs to win games and it’s not likely they’ll get them off Stauffer.

Fantasy MLB Spot Starting: 04.25.11

Well it was a good first full week for us here at Spot Starting, couple bumps in the road but overall a good week.  Hopefully the picks were able to help you in your head to head matches.   Starting off Monday we have an abbreviated schedule which is common for Mondays throughout the season, but let’s see if we can sneak in a good pick with these very very slim pickings.

For games on Monday April 25th these selected pitchers might be had in your league (less than 50% owned in Yahoo! or ESPN) with percent owned Yahoo/ESPN, (team), and opponent:

Chris Narveson 49% / 40% (MIL) vs. CIN

Jon Garland 9% / 3% (LAD) @ FLA

No other available starters even rate a mention

My Pick: Jon Garland @ Marlins

Alternate: Chris Narveson vs. Reds

Deep League Special: none

Garland is heading into his 3rd start of the season after starting on the DL, in his last outing he threw a CG gem against the Braves.  Garland is 3-0 lifetime at Sun Life Stadium with a 2.13 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and .227 BAA.  Those numbers were even better last year as he went 2-0 with 14K in 12.2IP, 1.42 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, .171 BAA.  The Marlins were cooled off Saturday and I think they are ready to come back down to earth after a fast start.

Narveson is our only other legitimate choice today as the picking are extremely slim.  And being the first day of the week even Narveson should only be picked up if you think you’ll have a hard time meeting your league minimum IP for the week as he hasn’t been as sharp his last two outings.

Deep League Special will return tomorrow.

Fantasy MLB Spot Starting: 04.23.11

As I was watching Kyle Lohse completely dominate the Nationals it reaffirmed the idea behind this daily post – there are gems to be had every day off the waiver wire.  I was close to tabbing Lohse until I saw his horrific splits against the Nats, but if a guy is on, he can beat anyone.  Luckily our actual pick, Scott Baker turned in his own gem beating the O’s.

For games on Saturday April 23rd these selected pitchers might be had in your league (less than 50% owned in Yahoo! or ESPN) with percent owned Yahoo/ESPN, (team), and opponent:

Javier Vazquez 38% / 9% (FLA) vs. COL

Tim Stauffer 36% / 4% (SD) vs. PHL

Travis Wood 35% / 82% (CIN) @ StL

Kevin Correia 22% / 25% (PIT) vs. WAS

Daisuke Matsuzaka 7% / 4% (BOS) @ LAA

Joe Blanton 4% / 3% (PHL) @ SD

Freddy Garcia 4% / 1% (NYY) @ BAL

My Pick: Kevin Correia vs. Nationals

Alternate: Tim Stauffer vs. Phillies

Deep League Special: Joe Blanton @ Padres

2011 National League West Previews: Padres

Today’s Focus: San Diego Padres

2010 Record: 90-72, 2nd in NL West

The Padres shocked the baseball world last year by finishing 2 games behind the San Francisco Giants in the West and 1 game behind the Atlanta Braves for the wild card spot. Their 90 win season can be attributed to their strong pitching and solid defense. Will they be able to shock us again?