The Casual Sabermetrician – First Half 2011 analysis

Welcome back to the Casual Sabermetrician.  It’s July, Summer is in full swing, and we’re at the half way point of the season.  We again look back on our pre-season exercise  and First Quarter Analysis of looking at tERA vs. ERA to find out which pitchers are pitching above their heads and which have been unlucky so far.  For fantasy purposes this translates to who we can sell high on and conversely who we might be able to buy low on.

Again, our method involves extracting tERA and ERA stats from Fangraphs into a spreadsheet and creating a formula to view tERA-ERA.  We can also look and see if the guys we looked at 7 weeks ago have regressed to the mean or not.

Fantasy MLB Spot Starting: 06.29.11

Welcome back to Spot Starting, sorry about the no post hiccup yesterday.  On to it..

For games on Thursday June 30th these selected pitchers might be had in your league (less than 50% owned in Yahoo! or ESPN) with percent owned Yahoo/ESPN, (team), and opponent:

Brian Matusz 37% / 28% (BAL) vs. StL

Matt Harrison 35% / 23% (TEX) @ HOU

Randy Wolf 34% / 34% (MIL) @ NYY

Jeff Karstens 23% / 17% (PIT) @ TOR

Mike Pelfrey 6% / 2% (NYM) @ DET

Fantasy MLB Spot Starting: 06.27.11

Welcome to another week of Spot Starting.  I was lucky enough to be at the Phillies game yesterday with my Aunt and 5 year old son to watch the Doc put on a clinic.  I was 5 in ’83 when the Phillies went to the Series but I don’t have any memory of it – here’s hoping my little guy has an elephant’s memory because these are special times to be a Phils fan.

For games on Tuesday June 28th these selected pitchers might be had in your league (less than 50% owned in Yahoo! or ESPN) with percent owned Yahoo/ESPN, (team), and opponent:

Kevin Correia 45% / 40% (PIT) @ TOR

Javier Vazquez 24% / 3% (FLA) @ OAK

Jason Marquis 17% / 11% (WAS) @ LAA

Rick Porcello 15% / 9% (DET) vs. NYM

Freddy Garcia 13% / 8% (NYY) vs. MIL

R.A. Dickey 13% / 4% (NYM) @ DET

Clayton Richard 13% / 1% (SD) vs. KC

Jordan Lyles 3% / 2% (HOU) vs. TEX

Fantasy MLB Spot Starting: 05.10.11

Welcome to another week of Spot Starting.  Let me tell you, from experience – the difference between winning and losing your head to head match could be a Sunday Spot Start off the waiver wire.  Yesterday, if I had followed my own advice and picked up Fausto Carmona or better yet, Anibal Sanchez I would have avoided a painful loss.  I was protecting my  WHIP and hoping it would hold up instead of padding my Ks and going for another W.  It backfired and my opponent Chris beat me.  Sometimes you gotta gamble.  By the way, please read Chris’ weekly Minor League Recap, it’s always epic.

For games on Tuesday May 10th these selected pitchers might be had in your league (less than 50% owned in Yahoo! or ESPN) with percent owned Yahoo/ESPN, (team), and opponent:

Kyle Drabek 38% / 23% (TOR) vs. BOS

Kevin Correia 34% / 36% (PIT) vs LAD

Clayton Richard 24% / 3% (SD) @ MIL

Homer Bailey 13% / 5% (CIN) @ HOU

Freddy Garcia 11% / 9% (NYY) vs. KC

Mike Pelfrey 6% / 1% (NYM) @ COL

Jake Arrieta 5% / 5% (BAL) vs. SEA

Rick Porcello 5% / 3% (DET)@ MIN

Fantasy MLB Spot Starting: 05.01.11

Not a great showing for Spot Starting last night, but as I’ve said before, sometimes the stats and research let you down and that’s why the game is played on the field and not on paper.  Can’t promise we can salvage the week or win your head to head match up with one of these picks though as the pickings are quite slim.  Some of our recent picks like Carl Pavano and Chris Narveson are not recommended this go ’round.  Chris Young is coming off the DL with a dead arm and has a very poor match up today against Halladay and the Phillies who’s bats have awoken.  But as you’ll read all is not lost as there are two good plays to be had.

See you again on Monday when Spot Starting returns with picks for Tuesday.

For games on Sunday May 1st these selected pitchers might be had in your league (less than 50% owned in Yahoo! or ESPN) with percent owned Yahoo/ESPN, (team), and opponent:

Carl Pavano 42% / 16% (MIN) @ KC

Chris Narveson 28% / 20% (MIL) @ HOU

Chris Young 23% / 11% (NYM) vs. PHL

Bud Norris 20% / 5% (HOU) vs. MIL

Jon Garland 10% / 7% (LAD) vs. SD

After this, it gets down right ugly, trust me folks.  Doesn’t mean someone can’t pull a good start out of their you know what, but we don’t have a crystal ball, just good hard stats.

My Pick: Bud Norris vs. Brewers

Alternate: Jon Garland vs. Padres

Deep League Special: Garland

Fantasy MLB Spot Starting: 04.29.11

In writing this article, I find most enjoyment in my Deep League Special pick.  It’s what we fantasy baseball geeks really love, digging deep for the sleeper, the high upside.  Last night, my sleeper pick, Bartolo Colon was the toast of baseball as he dazzled the White Sox over 8 very strong innings picking up his second straight win.  Tons of guys on the waiver wire to be had for Friday’s starts, grab one to help you win your match up or pad your stats.

For games on Friday April 29th these selected pitchers might be had in your league (less than 50% owned in Yahoo! or ESPN) with percent owned Yahoo/ESPN, (team), and opponent:

Javier Vazquez 34% / 4% (FLA) @ CIN

Scott Baker 33% / 25% (MIN) @ KC (Start was pushed back from Thursday)

Clayton Richard 28% / 4% (SD) @ LAD

Travis Wood 27% / 51% (CIN) vs. FLA

Kevin Correia 23% / 24% (PIT) @ COL

Daisuke Matsuzaka 22% / 16% (BOS) vs. SEA

Bruce Chen 15% / 17% (KC) vs. MIN

Freddy Garcia 11% / 12% (NYY) vs. TOR

Mike Pelfrey 7% / 1% (NYM) @ PHL

Joe Blanton 4% / 2% (PHL) vs. NYM

Jason Marquis 3% / 3% (WAS) vs. SF

Jake Arrieta 2% / 1% (BAL) @ CWS

Armando Galarrago 2% / 2% (ARI) vs. CHC

My Pick: Daisuke Matsuzaka vs. Mariners

Yesterday’s Pick (pushed up to today): Scott Baker @ Royals

Deep League Special: Freddy Garcia vs. Jays

American League Central Previews- White Sox

Today’s Focus: Chicago White Sox

The White Sox will need to step it up in April and May to contend for the A.L. Central Division Title. Gavin Floyd, Jake Peavy, Alexei Ramirez, Carlos Quentin and Gordon Beckham all did their part in ensuring a sub par April and May in  2010.

For the most part, the lineup looks to be pretty solid. The addition of Adam Dunn not only adds incredible power, but he also brings a much need left-handed bat in the middle of a right-handed heavy lineup. Gordon Beckham’s strong 2010 second half suggests a breakout campaign. The only glaring hole would be at 3B. Mark Teahan and Brent Morel will battle it out for the 3B job but this could be a possible platoon situation. Mark Teahan has a career .200 AVG vs. lefties and Brent Morel bats from the right side.

As for the pitching, they may have the best staff in the A.L. Central when it’s all said and done. The only issue I see is, we don’t know who will be filling in for Jake Peavy until his return. If they decide to go with Chris Sale, it will thin out their bullpen and they could go with a platoon of Jesse Crain, Sergio Santos and Matt Thornton in the closer spot.

Notable Losses: Manny Ramirez, Bobby Jenks, Mark Kotsay, Andruw Jones, Scott Linebrink, Freddy Garcia

Notable Pick Ups: Adam Dunn, Lastings Milledge, Will Ohman, Jesse Crain, Phillip Humber

If the White Sox can keep their heads above water during April and May, they will take the A.L. Central dethroning the Minnesota Twins.

American League East Previews – Yankees

Today’s focus: New York Yankees

After finishing in second place last season and not adding another world championship to their collection, the popular thought was that the Yankees would reload over the off season. All signs pointed toward yes during their pursuit of Cliff Lee, but as it turns out, money really ISN’T everything to some people.

The challenge the Yankees will face this year will be their rotation. While C.C. Sabathia is a solid ace, once you get past him there are a lot of question marks. Phil Hughes looks like a solid starter, maybe not a number 2 which is most likely where he will fall in the rotation this year, but solid. AJ Burnett is looking to bounce back from a down year which seemed more related to his mental approach than his stuff. Joba Chamberlain we’re being told won’t be a starter and Andy Pettitte has decided to retire. The recent signing of Freddy Garcia at least moves either Ivan Nova or Sergio Mitre out of the rotation, thankfully for all those Yankee fans. If the Yanks find another capable starter, Burnett gets his groove back and Hughes continues to develop, they would have a very good staff, if all those things don’t happen it will be below average.

Notable Losses Include: Javier Vazquez, Lance Berkman, Marcus Thames, Andy Pettitte

Notable Pick Ups: Freddy Garcia, Rafael Soriano, Andruw Jones, Russell Martin

While overall I still see a 90+ win team here, the concern is not that the Yankees have declined, but how much the Red Sox have improved. On paper I would see the Yanks finishing in second once again, but this year it will be behind the Sox. Of course, that’s just on paper and there’s a reason they still play the games.