05.19.11 Box Score Breakdown: Fantasy MLB News and Notes

Madison Bumgarner JUST missed a SHO. He’d be on your team if you read my “September Star Series…

Onto it…

4th and Home Player of the Day: Jason Giambi– 3/5, 3 R, 3 HR, 7 RBI…So he juiced before the game I assume?

The Bats:
Jay Bruce – 3/4, 2 R, 2 HR, 2 RBI…Bruce is starting to heat up as he’s now batting .333 for the past week.

Justin Morneau – 3/5, 2 R, HR, 2 RBI…Morneau with a nice night to help his disappointing season.

Trevor Plouffe – 1/5, R, HR, 3 RBI…Ok, ok. It’s about time I talk about the Rook. Through nine games he’s batting .286 with 2 HR and 8 RBI.

Howie Kendrick – 3/4, R, HR, RBI…Been quiet lately, but now hitting .322 with 7 HR and 18 RBI.

Allen Craig – 3/4, 2 R, HR, RBI…Holliday-esque in his start!

Killin’ the Odds & A.L. Futures

Welcome to Killin’ the Odds & AL Futures! It’s real simple, I analyze odds to win the 2011 World Series and tell you who to take. Now on with it!

2011 Fantasy Baseball Bust: Rickie Weeks

 

Rickie Weeks dominated in 2010.

His final stats of 112/29/83/11 and triple slash line of .269/.366/.464 were impressive to say the least.

2011 MLB Spring Training Review: Week of March 6th

Spring Training Quick Hits

An MRI has revealed Mariners catcher Miguel Olivo has suffered a strained adductor muscle and the team has no timetable for his return. The fact that I’m reporting this shows how weak this position truly is…….

2011 Fantasy Baseball Bust: Derek Jeter

Derek Jeter is an 11-time All-Star, five-time World Series champion, five-time Gold Glover, four-time Silver Slugger and the 2000 World Series MVP.

No doubt about it, Derek Jeter is a first-ballot Hall of Famer and the greatest Yankee shortstop of all time. Jeter will continue to hit at the top of the Yankee lineup.

So, what has the Yankee captain done for me to consider him a bust?

Derek Jeter easily had the worst season of his career in 2010 at age 36. He suffered career lows in batting average (.270), BABIP (.307), ISO (.100), OPS (.710) and wOBA (.320).

When looking at his GB rate of 65.7 percent (highest in MLB), you can see he had all kinds of trouble keeping the ball off the ground. 

His GB percent is troublesome because of his declining speed. His LD rate (16.1 percent) and FB rate (18.2 percent) are both career-lows. He will not be banging out too many infield hits and he isn’t getting any lift on the ball.

I don’t think Derek Jeter will have a horrible fantasy season and shortstop is very shallow, but Derek Jeter’s ADP is 48. He is being taken before Justin Morneau, Adam Dunn, Jose Bautista, Jayson Werth, Ian Kinsler and all but six starting pitchers.

If he outperforms all of these guys in the 2011 fantasy season, I will walk into a McDonald’s with my pants down and post it on YouTube.

Wait 50 picks and draft Alexei Ramirez or wait 75 picks and draft Stephen Drew. They both could put up better numbers than Jeter this year. Hell, I bet Ian Desmond 150 picks later could put up comparable numbers to Jeter.

If you miss out on a top-tier SS, don’t think Derek Jeter is the answer to your problems.

Projection: .295 AVG, 9 HR, 59 RBI, 101 R, 14 SB

2011 Fantasy Baseball Rankings: FIRST BASE

Is it any surprise that Albert Pujols is our consensus #1? Didn’t think so. Much like the catchers, we all agreed that there is clearly a #1 at the position without question. We may never know Albert’s true age, but one thing is certain, he is getting older and two guys last year made a run at dethroning him: Miguel Cabrera and Joey Votto. In 2011, we may even see Adrian Gonzalez join them in the chase.

(Image: Zuma Press)

Does your Top 10 look like ours?

RANK	PLAYER	Brian	Mike	Killboy	Jesse	Eric	COMP
1	Albert Pujols – STL	1	1	1	1	1	1.0
2	Miguel Cabrera – DET	2	2	3	3	2	2.4
3	Joey Votto – CIN	3	4	4	2	3	3.2
4	Adrian Gonzalez – BOS	4	3	2	5	5	3.8
5	Mark Teixeira – NYY	5	6	6	4	6	5.4
6	Prince Fielder – MIL	6	5	5	6	7	5.8
7	Ryan Howard – PHI	7	7	7	7	4	6.4
8	Kevin Youkilis – BOS	8	11	9	9	8	9.0
9	Justin Morneau – MIN	9	9	8	13	11	10.0
10	Kendry Morales – LAA	10	8	14	14	9	11.0
11	Buster Posey – SF	12	13	12	8	10	11.0
12	Adam Dunn – CHW	13	10	10	11	13	11.4
13	Victor Martinez – DET	14	12	11	10	14	12.2
14	Paul Konerko – CHW	11	15	13	15	12	13.2
15	Billy Butler – KC	15	14	16	12	17	14.8
16	Aubrey Huff – SF	17	19	18	17	15	17.2
17	Derrek Lee – BAL	–	17	15	18	16	17.4
18	Mike Napoli – TEX	–	16	–	16	–	19.0
19	Adam LaRoche – WAS	18	20	–	20	18	19.4
20	Carlos Pena – CHC	16	–	20	–	–	19.8

 

PAUL KONERKO

Since it’s Valentine’s Day I’m going to come out and say it, I love Paul Konerko.  The 34 year old has averaged 31HR, 95 RBI and a .280 average for the the past 10 seasons, and last year was one of his best (39HR, 111RBI, .312).  The best part about Konerko is that he always slips in drafts, which makes him a middle round bargain to fill out one of your utility spots.

BILLY BUTLER

Billy Butler is one of the best young players you don’t know due to his playing for the woeful Royals.  None of his individual numbers will blow you away but his above average production across all categories (except SB) makes him a valuable fantasy contributor that can be had as a bargain in middle rounds.  He is also a September Star that you’ll want during your playoff run.

IKE DAVIS

My Ike Davis ranking doesn’t show up on our list, but I had him ranked 18th, right behind Derrek Lee. His MiLB career BABIP suggests he has room to grow even from where he was last year (.321), which means his AVG will rise, as will the rest of his counting stats. With a healthy Mets team, I don’t see why Ike can’t go .280-85-23-85-4 (along with 35-40 2B & 80BB if your league counts them). For a 24-year old, that is pretty solid and a low cost option in the later rounds.

SLEEPER: GABY SANCHEZ

First full season in the bigs he hits .273 with 19 HR’s! Only 27 to start the season, I think we can expect bigger things this year from Gaby. Gotta be better than the slim pickings at the bottom of the 1st Base list.

BUST: ADAM LAROCHE

Career high K%(30.7) and BABIP(.330) both suggest major decline. Washington is tougher on lefties with a 94 HR park factor versus Arizona’s 114. Take a chance on a high ceiling guy and don’t waste it on LaDouche.

 

American League Central Previews- Twins

Today’s Focus: Minnesota Twins

The Twins added speed to the lineup with the addition of Tsuyoshi Nishioka at SS. They will also be starting Alexi Casilla at 2B with the departure of Orlando Hudson. Other than that, it looks like the rest of the Minnesota’s offensive regulars will be returning in 2011.

In 2010, they had much more depth in the infield and bullpen which helped them tremendously down the stretch. Nick Punto played 2B, 3B, SS, and all 3 outfield spots in 2010 and he played them very well. He was arguably their best defender.

Morneau still has not begun baseball-related activities. Joe Nathan is making good progress from surgery last March. Nathan should be good to go to start the season but may be limited early. Michael Cuddyer (arthroscopic right knee surgery), Joe Mauer (left knee surgery), Scott Baker (right elbow surgery), Nick Blackburn (right elbow surgery) and Jason Repko (left thumb surgery), should all be ready to go by Spring Training.

The team was able to resign Carl Pavano, Jim Thome and Francisco Liriano. Liriano signed for a one year deal to avoid arbitration. Liriano is said to have wanted a 3 year $39 million contract. There is a possibility that Liriano will be traded. That leaves only Delmon Young left to sign. After Delmon Young signs, the Twins will be done this offseason putting their payroll around $110 million.

Notable Losses: J.J. Hardy, Orlando Hudson, Jon Rauch, Brian Fuentes, Matt Guerrier, Jesse Crain, Nick Punto

Notable Pick Ups: Tsuyoshi Nishioka, Dusty Hughes

If the Twins trade Francisco Liriano their rotation would look like, 1) Carl Pavano, 2) Scott Baker, 3) Brian Duensing, 4) Kevin Slowey, 5) Nick Blackburn. The White Sox are going to give them a run for their money even if they kept Liriano. Their reign at the top of the A.L. Central will come to an end this year.

Fantasy Finds: Top 3 Underrated First Basemen

Some of these names will have a little more value in your draft than others, but the focus is finding value at their draft spots! First Base is a great position to find quality players for your utility positions due to the depth of quality players.

1. Justin Morneau – Currently ranked #60 by Yahoo Fantasy Baseball

Last Season’s Statistics:

Runs	HR	RBI	SB	Avg
53	18	56	0	.345

 

 

Nothing too impressive until you realize he only played in 81 games! Extrapolate that over an entire season and you get the following:

Runs	HR	RBI	SB	Avg
106	36	112	0	.345

Those of you that are quick are already noting that his BABIP was about .090 over his career average, but there’s no doubt he was on pace for an MVP caliber season when he was injured. Not too dissimilar to the following stats:

Runs	HR	RBI	SB	Avg
115	42	118	14	.312

And those got Mr. Jose “Albert” Pujols ranked #1. If you can get him in the 40’s or 50’s, do it and laugh all the way to the championship.

2. Paul Konerko – Currently ranked #97 by Yahoo Fantasy Baseball

Last Season’s Statistics:

Runs	HR	RBI	SB	Avg
89	39	111	0	.312

With Konerko he has a few strikes against him going into this season, he’s going to be 35, his BABIP last year was .041 over his career average last year and it’s not a contract year. So we should expect some regression this season for a team that selects him. With that said, would you be upset if you got 30 HR’s, 100 RBI and a .280 Average out of an 8^th-10^th round draft choice??

3. Gaby Sanchez – Currently ranked #232 by Yahoo Fantasy Baseball

Last Season’s Statistics:

Runs	HR	RBI	SB	Avg
72	19	85	5	.273

While Sanchez has not lit the world on fire, he did have a productive first full season in the major leagues. At only 27 and since he was a career .302 hitter in 5 minor league seasons, I would say he has decent upside for someone that will most likely go undrafted in several leagues. Think of him as Butler-lite, similar stats but at a much cheaper price!