2011 Fantasy Baseball Busts: David Price

At the young age of 25, David Price has already started in an All-Star game, pitched in the World Series and finished runner-up  in the 2010 Cy Young voting. In 2010, he posted a 2.72 ERA with 19 wins and 188 strikeouts in 208.2 innings. Those numbers look outstanding but, the numbers under the surface paint a different picture.

National League East Previews: Nationals

Today’s focus: Washington Nationals

2010 Record: 69-93, 5th Place NL East (14th in NL)

The Nationals have been on quite a roller coaster ride the past 21 months.  From the highs of drafting Stephen Strasburg, the most hyped pitching prospect in recent memory – to almost not being able to sign him.  Finishing last again, to drafting Bryce Harper, the most hyped high school position player in recent memory.  The excitement of Strasburg’s dominating debut to the crushing blow of losing him to Tommy John surgery.  The Nationals decided to make a big splash this off season by signing one of the biggest name free agents in Jason Werth.  They over paid him by $10’s of millions but such is the plight of a franchise that has finished no higher than 4th since 2002.

2011 Fantasy Baseball Rankings: OUTFIELD

Ryan Braun or Carlos Gonzalez at #1? That was the debate, though one guy even ranked Carl Crawford as his #1. Madness!

Ryan Braun: Ready to tee off in 2011

And…Ryan Braun takes home our #1 OF ranking, but it was close. You could definitely make an argument for either, but the composite sided with the guy who has done it more than once before. You’ll notice our individual rankings are all over the place, showcasing our different views. When compiled, it’s a pretty safe list with hidden gems when compared to the latest ADP data. There is lots and lots of value late in the draft, so if you miss out on top-tier guys while stockpiling other positions you can always get a proven vet in the 30s and 40s.

Onto the Rankings…

RANK	PLAYER	Brian	Mike	Killboy	Jesse	Eric	COMP
1	Ryan Braun – MIL	1	2	2	1	1	1.4
2	Carlos Gonzalez – COL	2	3	1	2	2	2
3	Carl Crawford – BOS	3	1	3	4	3	2.8
4	Josh Hamilton – TEX	5	5	4	5	4	4.6
5	Matt Holliday – STL	4	6	5	3	5	4.6
6	Shin-Soo Choo – CLE	6	10	6	6	8	7.2
7	Matt Kemp – LAD	7	4	7	18	6	8.4
8	Nelson Cruz – TEX	22	9	9	7	7	10.8
9	Andrew McCutchen – PIT	9	11	8	14	12	10.8
10	Hunter Pence – HOU	13	12	13	11	9	11.6
11	Jason Heyward – ATL	10	13	15	9	11	11.6
12	Andre Ethier – LAD	15	14	12	12	16	13.8
13	Justin Upton – ARI	8	8	11	32	10	13.8
14	Jose Bautista – TOR	17	22	10	10	13	14.4
15	Jacoby Ellsbury – BOS	19	7	18	26	15	17
16	Alex Rios – CHW	20	17	16	13	23	17.8
17	Ichiro Suzuki – SEA	12	41	14	8	14	17.8
18	Jayson Werth – WAS	11	15	27	19	17	17.8
19	Jay Bruce – CIN	14	16	19	34	18	20.2
20	Corey Hart – MIL	16	31	20	29	26	24.4
21	Shane Victorino – PHI	28	25	21	35	20	25.8
22	Aubrey Huff – SF	25	26	25	15	39	26
23	Delmon Young – MIN	21	18	28	42	24	26.6
24	Drew Stubbs – CIN	23	21	30	41	19	26.8
25	Nick Markakis – BAL	18	24	36	25	31	26.8
26	Mike Stanton – FLA	24	37	31	28	21	28.2
27	Chris Young – ARI	33	27	22	39	25	29.2
28	Torii Hunter – LAA	30	30	41	17	37	31
29	Nick Swisher – NYY	45	29	33	23	29	31.8
30	Martin Prado – ATL	26	28	32	52	22	32
31	Juan Pierre – CHW	36	32	39	21	34	32.4
32	Curtis Granderson – NYY	32	40	23	36	33	32.8
33	Brett Gardner – NYY	27	20	40	38	44	33.8
34	B.J. Upton – TB	41	38	17	58	27	36.2
35	Colby Rasmus – STL	40	23	29	–	28	36.2
36	Carlos Lee – HOU	50	43	24	27	40	36.8
37	Bobby Abreu – LAA	42	46	34	22	42	37.2
38	Vernon Wells – LAA	35	58	43	20	36	38.4
39	Adam Jones – BAL	37	33	46	40	38	38.8
40	Angel Pagan – NYM	34	36	45	45	46	41.2
41	Jason Bay – NYM	31	56	35	51	35	41.6
42	Jose Tabata – PIT	47	19	48	46	56	43.2
43	Ben Zobrist – TB	–	52	50	16	41	44
44	Grady Sizemore – CLE	39	42	51	–	32	45
45	Michael Cuddyer – MIN	53	47	53	24	51	45.6
46	Carlos Beltran – NYM	38	35	56	57	47	46.6
47	Luke Scott – BAL	60	57	26	44	48	47
48	Ryan Raburn – DET	29	48	37	–	–	47.2
49	Magglio Ordonez – DET	–	45	44	30	58	47.6
50	Michael Bourn – HOU	56	50	47	47	45	49
51	Carlos Quentin – CHW	43	–	38	–	43	49.2
52	Manny Ramirez – TB	48	44	42	59	57	50
53	Austin Jackson – DET	52	55	59	55	30	50.2
54	Andres Torres – SF	–	54	52	37	49	50.6
55	Rajai Davis – TOR	44	39	–	60	50	50.8
56	Denard Span – MIN	–	53	58	31	54	51.4
57	Coco Crisp – OAK	–	34	–	–	55	54.4
58	Alfonso Soriano – CHC	49	–	49	–	52	54.4
59	Desmond Jennings – TB	–	–	–	33	–	55.4
60	Ryan Ludwick – SD	51	–	55	49	–	55.4

 

JUSTIN UPTON…Upton is coming off a year in which he took a considerable step backwards. Through his first 3 seasons in the big leagues he had consistently improved his statistics as his playing time increased, expect a bounce back this year. For more, continue reading (here).

JACOBY ELLSBURY… Remember this guy?  He’s a season removed from stealing 70 bases, scoring 94 runs, and batting .301.  Ellsbury was a wasted pick for lot of fantasy owners last year, when he missed all but 18 games, but now he’s healthy and ready to go.  I’ve seen this guy ranked all over the place (including our individual rankings) but he has the potential to be a top 10 outfielder.  Don’t wait too long to grab him. .295/90/7/55/60

B.J. UPTON…Even though BJ Upton hit .237 last year, he still finished the season ranked as the 29th fantasy outfielder in Yahoo. His speed is too good to repeat his .304 BABIP and his career mark is .334.The 26 year old is fully healthy so his power should be back to stay. Other than Carl Crawford, he is the best candidate to go 20/40. .259/78/20/73/45

SLEEPER: JOSE TABATA…Most forget Jose Tabata was a touted Yankee prospect, but certainly remember his estranged wife. After his June call-up, Tabata went .321/53/3/31/14 in July/August/September. Extrapolate that and he goes .321/106/6/62/28 in a season. At only 22 he has plenty of time to develop into a double-digit HR hitter and the speed is real. Currently the #51 OF off the board. I have him at #19 with a projected 2011 line of .300/90/10/60/30.

BUST: MATT KEMP…Fantasy Managers have been waiting for the great Matt Kemp break out for the past couple seasons and I’m here to say they shouldn’t hold their breath.  His unsustainably high BABIP, high K% and low BB% really caught up to him in 2010.  He also forgot how to steal bases being caught almost half the time.  Questions about his desire and makeup all spell reasons to stay away as other managers continue to way over pay for Kemp taking him as early as #16 overall.  .278/85/25/85/25

2011 Fantasy Baseball Bust: Jayson Werth

In the past three years, Jayson Werth has averaged 29 HR, 92 R, 83 RBI, 17 SB, and .279 AVG.  In 2010, Jayson Werth established a career-high .352 BABIP. This number suggests luck because of his career-low line-drive rate of 17.5 percent. 

2011 Fantasy Baseball Bust: Derek Jeter

Derek Jeter is an 11-time All-Star, five-time World Series champion, five-time Gold Glover, four-time Silver Slugger and the 2000 World Series MVP.

No doubt about it, Derek Jeter is a first-ballot Hall of Famer and the greatest Yankee shortstop of all time. Jeter will continue to hit at the top of the Yankee lineup.

So, what has the Yankee captain done for me to consider him a bust?

Derek Jeter easily had the worst season of his career in 2010 at age 36. He suffered career lows in batting average (.270), BABIP (.307), ISO (.100), OPS (.710) and wOBA (.320).

When looking at his GB rate of 65.7 percent (highest in MLB), you can see he had all kinds of trouble keeping the ball off the ground. 

His GB percent is troublesome because of his declining speed. His LD rate (16.1 percent) and FB rate (18.2 percent) are both career-lows. He will not be banging out too many infield hits and he isn’t getting any lift on the ball.

I don’t think Derek Jeter will have a horrible fantasy season and shortstop is very shallow, but Derek Jeter’s ADP is 48. He is being taken before Justin Morneau, Adam Dunn, Jose Bautista, Jayson Werth, Ian Kinsler and all but six starting pitchers.

If he outperforms all of these guys in the 2011 fantasy season, I will walk into a McDonald’s with my pants down and post it on YouTube.

Wait 50 picks and draft Alexei Ramirez or wait 75 picks and draft Stephen Drew. They both could put up better numbers than Jeter this year. Hell, I bet Ian Desmond 150 picks later could put up comparable numbers to Jeter.

If you miss out on a top-tier SS, don’t think Derek Jeter is the answer to your problems.

Projection: .295 AVG, 9 HR, 59 RBI, 101 R, 14 SB